Join OANDA Market Analyst Kenny Fisher & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world.

SocGen sees selling EUR/JPY as the best short-term trade, given the divergence in Eurozone vs. Japan growth expectations. While USD/JPY remains strongly correlated to 10-year US yields, the broader JPY strength case is intact as US equities soften and Treasury yields edge lower.Key Points:Strong Correlation Between USD/JPY & US YieldsUSD/JPY has maintained a tight correlation with 10-year US yields.Relative growth expectations now matter more than relative rates.EUR/JPY Disconnect from FundamentalsEurozone growth expectations are deteriorating relative to Japan.Despite this, EUR/JPY is trading at the same level as a year ago, creating a misalignment.Short-Term Trading StrategyGiven weak Eurozone growth expectations and Japan's improving outlook, the best trade now is to short EUR/JPY.The market may soon adjust to reflect the economic divergence between the Eurozone and Japan.Conclusion:SocGen recommends selling EUR/JPY as a short-term trade, citing the striking deterioration in Eurozone growth expectations versus Japan. Even if US yields remain rangebound, JPY strength should persist, making EUR/JPY a prime short candidate.For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD bottomed on Monday within pips of the low from 2022. Since then, the price has been steadily rising. Today, the price moved above what was an old ceiling area between 0.56837 and 0.56917. That area will now be close support for traders. Staying above could lead to another run to the upside with the swing highs from January and 0.5704 and 0.5722 the next targets. Get above those levels, and the door opens for further upside momentum.Conversely if the break fails, I would expect the rotation back down toward 0.5669 and then potentially the 200 hour moving average and 0.5647. Yesterday the price moved up to that moving average and consolidated around into the close and early Asian session before taking a another run to the upside.Buyers in control. Can they keep the firm control and make a run at the 2025 highs (and beyond)?This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

WTO complaints are a long process, typically taking several years. In addition, since 2019, the WTO's Appellate Body has been non-functional due to the US blocking new appointments.In short, this is meaningless and the WTO is slowly falling apart.This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Alphabet shares were a big drag on stocks earlier today and the Nasdaq remains 0.2% lower but the S&P 500 is now slightly higher ont he day after erasing a 30-point loss. That's impressive performance given that share of GOOG remain down 7.6%.The market is continuing to digest this round of the trade war and the implication that Trump won't be particularly aggressive, at least against allies.Also helping the stock market is the ongoing drop in yields, with 10-year yields down 9 bps to 4.42% with some additional declines coming following the soft ISM services report.This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Board Member Mario Centeno noted that deflationary pressures within the European economy are becoming a concern for policymakers.

Yesterday, Zelensky said they are ready for the diplomatic track to end the war.Now, Bloomberg reports that US allies expect Trump's plan to end the war at a Munich security conference next week.I take this as a potential upside risk for the euro and a downside risk for oil.This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This is a bit rich consider the US just blocked Japan's acquisition of US Steel based on national security grounds. That said, Trump does seem to have a soft spot for Japan.This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The EUR/USD pair continued its bullish advance on Wednesday, rising by 0.39% to 1.0420 as buyers maintained control.

I hope we will get to 2% deposit rate sooner rather than laterWe may need to go below neutral rate to sustain inflation at 2%Sees neutral rate below 2%Pretty clear we need to keep downward trajectory of interest ratesI'm ok with gradual cuts of 25 bpsEurope must be united in the face of potential tariffsThese are some dovish comments.This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The ISM Services index fell 1.2 points to 52.8 in January, slightly short of the 54.0 consensus was expecting. However, fourteen industries out of eighteen reported growth, up from nine in December and back in line with November. Business activity tumbled last month, falling 3.5 points to 54.5, more than giving back last month’s improvement The post ISM Services Index Falls to Start 2025, But Continues to Signal Hrowth  appeared first on Action Forex.

The AUD/USD is pushing to new highs, with the price now entering a key swing area target between 0.6287 and 0.63016 (see renumbered circles on the chart below). A sustained move above this range could pave the way for a rally toward the January high of 0.63310.On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6274. This level holds significance as it served as a swing low on January 27 and a swing high on January 28. Additionally, in today’s trading, the corrective pullback after the initial upside move stalled at this level, further emphasizing its importance in the short term from a technical perspective.This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trading, whether in stocks, forex, or cryptocurrencies, is a complex and often unpredictable endeavor. Success requires a potent mix of market knowledge, analytical skills, disciplined risk management, and, crucially, timely decision-making. In this dynamic landscape, trading signals have emerged as a valuable tool, offering a potential edge to both novice and experienced traders. This article The post Riding the Wave: Unveiling the Advantages of Trading Signals appeared first on Action Forex.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is at vital support in an otherwise downbeat trading session on Wednesday ahead of the US Purchase Managers Index (PMI) releases from both S&P

USD/JPY is testing a crucial support level. BOJ rate hike expectations are growing on the back of strong data. Key support levels are at 151.53 and 150.00, while resistance levels are at 153.91, 155.00, and 156.27. USD/JPY has found some support following a 150 pip drop during the Asian and early European sessions. The pair The post USD/JPY Trading Outlook: Testing Support at 100 & 200-Day MA appeared first on Action Forex.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane emphasized the need for a balanced approach in the easing cycle, advocating a measured pace to avoid either stifling economic growth or fueling excessive inflation. He highlighted that a “middle path is appropriate,” ensuring that policymakers do not lean too heavily on either upside or downside risks. Lane reiterated the The post ECB’s Lane: Exiting restrictive policy requires wider considerations than neutral rate appeared first on Action Forex.

Prior was 3464KGasoline +2233K vs +525K expectedDistillates -5471K vs -1483K expectedProduction 13.478 mbpdThese are bearish numbers for energy, even compared to the private numbers from late yesterday. WTI crude oil was down $1.06 to $71.64 ahead of the data.This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY is testing a crucial support level. BOJ rate hike expectations are growing on the back of strong data. Key support levels are at 151.53 and 150.00, while resistance levels are at 153.91, 155.00, and 156.27. Most Read: Brent Crude Oil Analysis: Iran Tensions, OPEC+ and Price Trends USD/JPY has found some support following a

January’s job growth could dip below 200K. The labor market remains strong overall. USD/JPY in bearish mode; a single rate cut still provide support. The first Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report of the year –and the last of Biden’s era –will be published this Friday, making it a key event for traders. Trump’s escalating-de-escalating tariff policies The post Could Friday’s NFP Report Trigger More Dollar Sell-off? appeared first on Action Forex.

Does not expect tariffs to result in a large reshoring of US manufacturing any time soonExpects 12 months inflation numbers will come down 'significantly' in the first quarterThere are some base case effects that should help bring down inflation numbers in Q1 and that would highlight Fed optionality on rate cuts.This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Markets The ECB updated its wage tracker, published a first time after last December’s policy meeting. The headline indicator’s path is broadly unchanged with wages expected to remain sticky in Q1 and Q2 of this year (4.9% Y/Y and 4.5% Y/Y respectively) before “collapsing” in the second half of next year to 2.2% Y/Y in The post US Eco Data Lost Importance at Volatile Start of Trump 2.0 appeared first on Action Forex.

The weaker PMI data has helped to push the USDJPY lower. The price has now moved below its 200 day moving average at 152.778, and its 100 day moving average at 152.422 (see green and blue lines on the chart above).. The price is currently trading at 152.327.Staying below those levels keeps the sellers more in control. The next key target area off the daily chart comes against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the 2024 low. That level comes in at 151.498.Sellers are taking their shot in the USDJPY off the data. For traders looking for more downside, staying below the 100 and 200 day MAs now is required. A failure and there will be disappointment on the failed break. Helping the downside is US treasury yields are moving to the downside with the 2 year down -5 basis points. The 10 year is down -9.3 basis points to 4.418%. Recall 10-year yield reached a high at 4.809% back on January 14, with many thinking 5% was a certainty. The current yield is down to the lowest level since December 18 and is below the 50% of the move up from the December low. On Monday, the 50% was tested after the threat of 25% tariffs in Canada and Mexico. Now the market is reacting to the slower data and hopes for slower inflation.This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US ISM Services PMI declined from 54.0 to 52.8 in January, falling short of market expectations of 54.2. The drop was driven primarily by slower growth in business activity and new orders, both of which saw noticeable declines. Business activity/production slipped from 58.0 to 54.5, while new orders dropped from 54.4 to 51.3. Meanwhile, employment The post US ISM services falls to 52.8 as business activity and new orders weaken appeared first on Action Forex.

The Pound Sterling remains bid for the third consecutive day, edges up 0.34% as the GBP/USD trades at 1.2519 above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2501.

The USDCHF has been trending more to the downside once again after Monday's spike took the price within a few pips of the January high. Yesterday, the price fell below both its 100 and 200 hour moving averages, stalling near the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the January 24 low at 0.90537.Today momentum has continued with the price falling below a swing level at 0.90314, but stalling near a swing area between 0.8997 0.9011. Getting below that level would open the door for further selling with the low price from last week at 0.89654 the next target.On the topside in the short term watch 0.90314 as resistance. If the price moves back above that level we could see rotation back toward the 61.8% retracement target at 0.90537.This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The economic activity in the US service sector continued to expand in January, albeit at a softer pace than in December, with the ISM Services PMI declining to 52.8 from 54.

Prior was 54.1Employment 52.3 vs 51.3 priorNew orders 51.3 vs 54.2 priorPrices paid 60.4 vs 64.4 priorBusiness activity 54.5 vs 58.2 priorSupplier deliveries 53.0 vs 52.5 priorInventories 47.5 vs 49.4 priorBacklog of orders 44.8 vs 44.3 priorNew export orders 52.0 vs 50.1 priorImports 49.8 vs 50.7 priorInventory sentiment 53.5 vs 53.4 priorThis isn't the post-election boom I was promised but the report highlights poor weather and tariff worries. The US dollar is lower on the report and Treasury yields are at the lows of the day with 10s now down 10 bps to 4.41%.Comments in the report:“Expecting considerable new projects to move to execution by second quarter in the energy market within the U.S.” [Construction]“Business conditions seem to be stable for us at this time.” [Educational Services]“Seeing letters announcing higher pricing from suppliers for 2025. Relying more on analytics to find the lowest impact on cost while keeping the quality high.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]“The paper market is starting to tighten up on the groundwood grades. All the North American mills are pushing dates into late February. It’s not causing any shortages yet, but it’s the first time in over a year that dates are moving out.” [Information]“Some apprehension exists with stakeholders and suppliers with government changes and potential tariff burdens.” [Management of Companies & Support Services]“The threat of tariffs is causing prices to rise. The threat of unstable international markets is resulting in shortages for various materials.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]“Concern going forward is the cost of materials and project work, if any tariffs go into effect.” [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]“Holiday sales not as robust as hoped for. Will need to adjust future planning.” [Retail Trade]“The employment market is softening as we are seeing less natural turn and getting more and better-qualified applicants. Also, requests for our services have continued to increase.” [Transportation & Warehousing]“Business is picking up but still slower than expected for January. We have had a lot of warehouse closures due to weather.” [Wholesale Trade]This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) surrenders some gains above 1.2500 against the US Dollar in Wednesday’s North American session but is still 0.2% higher.

Tech sector tumbles: Nvidia shines as Google slidesIn today’s dynamic trading environment, the U.S. stock market experienced contrasting movements, with significant fluctuations observed across various sectors. The tech sector, in particular, is under the spotlight, revealing some fascinating trends and insights for investors.📉 Communication Services & Consumer Cyclical: Under PressureGoogle (GOOG) took a significant hit, dropping by 7.12%, marking a substantial decline in the communication services sector. This move suggests investor concerns likely fueled by recent corporate announcements or market speculation.Amazon (AMZN) also witnessed a steeper decline of 2.44%, raising questions about consumer cyclical trends and potential impacts of shifting consumer behaviors.🚀 Semiconductor Sector: Bright Spots Amidst UncertaintyNvidia (NVDA) surged by 3.08%, standing out in the semiconductor sector, which is displaying mixed signals amid broader market volatility. This upturn highlights confidence in Nvidia's growth prospects despite industry challenges.AVGO also joined the upward trend with a gain of 3.07%, underscoring certain strengths in semiconductor innovation and performance.📊 Mixed Signals in Financial and Healthcare SectorsFinancial: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) rose by 0.57%, contributing to a generally stable outlook in the financial sector, where traditional banking services appear resilient.Healthcare: UnitedHealth (UNH) faced a downward movement, dropping by 3.02%, signaling potential pressures within healthcare plans and services.📚 Strategic RecommendationsGiven today’s fluctuating market dynamics, investors may consider realigning their portfolios to balance short-term volatility with long-term growth potential. Here’s what to watch:Monitor the Tech and Communication Sectors: With tech giants like Google under pressure, staying updated on market shifts within the communication services sector could prove invaluable.Leverage Semiconductors: With positive moves from companies like Nvidia, investors might explore opportunities within the semiconductor industry poised for growth.Stay Cautious in Healthcare: With mixed performances, particularly with UNH, cautious optimism might be prudent in healthcare investments.Visit ForexLive.com for detailed analysis and the latest updates to navigate these market changes. Stay informed and prepared to capitalize on emerging opportunities in this dynamic trading landscape.This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Prelim was 52.8Prior was 56.8 (best reading since March 2022)Composite 52.7 vs 52.4 prelimPrior composite was 55.4This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Silver price (XAG/USD) surrenders almost its entire intraday gains and falls back to near $32.00 in Wednesday’s North American session.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.84; (P) 154.68; (R1) 155.18; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49. Strong support could be seen from there to complete the corrective fall from 158.86 and bring rebound. But further fall will remain in favor as long as 155.51 resistance The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9015; (P) 0.9082; (R1) 0.9117; More… USD/CHF dips further today as consolidation from 0.9200 extends, but stays well above 0.8956/64 support. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8956/64 support holds. Firm break of 0.9200/9223 will resume the whole rally from 0.8374 and carry larger bullish implication. The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2410; (P) 1.2451; (R1) 1.2524; More… GBP/USD’s corrective rebound from 1.2099 extends through 1.2522. But upside is still expected to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609. On the downside, break of 1.2248 support will bring retest of 1.2099 first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Prior was 48.2Panellists primarily linked ongoing weakness in activity volumes to a reduction in new business, which also fell for a second successive month in JanuaryInflation softest in three monthsPaul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Canada’s services economy experienced concurrent falls in both business activity and new work during January to signal another month of subdued sector performance. Panellists continued to note soft underlying market demand, with uncertainty weighing on business decisions. This may reflect ongoing unease over the impact of possible tariffs being applied on Canadian goods and services exported to the United States, and indeed this was cited as a real concern by service providers themselves. Whilst firms are looking to lower interest rates to help stimulate growth, tariff worries ensured that confidence amongst panellists remained well below trend. “This uncertainty, plus general challenges in replacing expired contracts, helped to explain why service providers reported a marginal reduction in employment during January. Nonetheless, staffing expenses remained a source of broader input cost inflation for firms, which remained high in January.”Expect continued turmoil in Canadian survey indicators as the ongoing tariff spat really touched a nerve.This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canada’s merchandise trade balance tallied a first-in-ten-month surplus of $708 million in December. November’s deficit was revised higher to $986 million (from $323 million reported earlier). Merchandise exports accelerated to 4.9% month-on-month (m/m) from 1.9% in November, with gains reported by 8 out of 11 sectors. Energy exports, driven by higher crude oil prices, were The post Canada: December Nrings the First Trade Surplus Since February 2024 appeared first on Action Forex.

RapidCents, the payment processing platform, that specializes in secure transactions and automated billing, has announced an expansion to better serve merchants across North America. The investment aims to cover the development of the application and the investment of USD 500,000 in advanced AI infrastructure and specialized hardware + GPUs, according to the organization, which was led by Founder and CEO Mani Rahnama.As a result, Rahnama says this major investment in machine learning is expected to lead to major advances in fraud protection, chatbot assistance, security, and marketing. These developments — which Rahnama said condensed projected timelines — explained that “There’s a growth roadmap that could have taken two to three years is now deliverable in less than six months with our AI platform.” And we are doubling down on our company to accelerate progress and better serve our merchants.”Virtual Terminals: Process Payments on-the-goThe RapidCents platform today includes an intuitive virtual terminal that allows merchants to take payments from anywhere. This function is advantageous for businesses with orders from the phone or email and those with no point-of-sale system. The solution seeks to empower companies of all sizes with fast and transparent payment experiences, by enabling merchants to securely accept credit cards regardless of location.Subscription Payments: Automated BillingRecurring billing is important for many subscription-based businesses, fitness facilities, and SaaS providers. RapidCents automates these recurring payment cycles with the least human participation. Its service is designed to allow businesses to automate billing and minimize mistakes, better manage cash flow, and keep customers in the longer term.Introduction to Chargeback Protection“Chargebacks can have a serious impact on a business operation, and erode trust,” Rahnama said. “RapidCents significantly reduces this risk by including in its low-fee payment processor over 70 machine-learning-based fraud-detection parameters. Such an approach helps maintain compliance, limit financial losses, and protect merchants’ revenue streams.”Integrated Engineering Capabilities and customized SolutionsRapidCents enables integration with popular platforms such as WooCommerce and Microsoft 365 via simple plug-ins or sophisticated API connections. Key features of the platform include multi-currency support, subscription management, and detailed analytics. This payment plugin empowers businesses to tailor payment flows to meet their specific requirements while also maintaining a regulatory balance via a built-in chargeback prevention system.Investing in AI infrastructure in a smart wayThe recent Investment in AI hardware and GPUs by RapidCents supports the machine learning program through DeepSeek V3, 671B. The technology, already in immersive heavy training, boosts chatbot functions or security protocols, fraud detection even marketing. According to Rahnama, the initiative allows for more rapid and resilient growth across various aspects of the company, noting that future iterations of RapidCents will now be able to deploy “in a month” which would take years without AI.About RapidCentsRapidCents is a payment processing solution that includes secure virtual terminals, automated recurring billing, and powerful chargeback protection. Through AI-guided attributes and advanced crypto security protocols, RapidCents is built to help merchants from all verticals who need fast, scalable, and secure payment options. Users can learn more, by visiting https://rapidcents.com.This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0305; (P) 1.0346; (R1) 1.0421; More… While EUR/USD’s recovery from 1.0210 continues today, upside is still limited below 1.0531 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. However, sustained break of 1.0531 will rise the chance of bullish The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

I'm not seeing any details on this yet but it's likely a response to the tariffs.Update: The statement from Trudeau sounds more like a domestic summit."The Canada-U.S. Economic Summit is Team Canada at its best,” Mr. Trudeau said in a statement.“We are bringing together partners across business, civil society, and organized labour to find ways to galvanize our economy, create more jobs and bigger paycheques, make it easier to build and trade within our borders, and diversify export markets,” he said. “We want businesses, investors, and workers to choose Canada.”This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Dollar remains on the backfoot in early US session, despite the strong ADP private employment report. The data highlights continued resilience in the labor market, with services-driven job growth and sustained wage pressures. While this should theoretically reinforce the case for Fed to maintain its pause in easing for longer, traders appear reluctant to react The post Dollar Struggles Continue Despite Strong ADP, Caution Prevails appeared first on Action Forex.

More from Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin. Fed is cyberattacked all the time.We can't rest on security protocols in place.Three levels of uncertainty with tariffs.First is what level on what countries.Next is what response will countries and companies have.How is all this going to land on the consumer.Who bears the cost of the tariffs in the end?Useful to look at 2018 and 2019 experience.Most of the studies suggest those delivered 30–40 basis points of inflation in an era with little inflation.What happened then was consumers kept spending, businesses kept hiring, but big businesses cut investment.There is a wide range of outcomes potentially.Globalization has been disinflationary.Does worry that de-globalization could be a headwind to US growth.This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD struggles to extend its upside move above 1.0430 in Wednesday’s North American session.

The USDCAD has experienced significant volatility over the past five trading days, largely driven by uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Last week, the price broke higher, moving outside the "red box" range that had confined trading since December 17. This breakout was exacerbated on Monday following the announcement of a potential 25% tariff, which was later delayed for 30 days by Monday’s close.The delayed tariff news led to a pullback in the price yesterday and a more modest decline today. Today’s move has pushed the price below the lower boundary of the "red box" range, defined between 1.42905 and 1.43043, which now serves as key resistance. Staying below this area keeps sellers in control and opens the door to further downside. Conversely, a move back above this range would signal a failed breakdown, disappointing bearish traders.Looking back to January 20 (Inauguration Day), a similar volatile move saw the price dip below the lower swing area of the "red box" only to find support and rebound higher. Traders are now on high alert, with sellers maintaining an edge. On the downside, watch the 1.4260–1.4270 zone closely—a move below this range would reinforce the bearish bias.This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

3 levels of uncertainty with tariffsFirst is what level on what countriesNext is the response from countries and companiesThird is how it all lands with the consumerDoes worry that de-globalization could be a headwind for US growthGlobalization has been deflationaryThis article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Comments from the chief economist:Incoming survey indicators suggest that the eurozone economy is set to remain subdued in the near termA middle path is appropriate for policyCalibration of mon pol cannot be summarized by neutral rateTariffs are a downside risk to activity but inflation impact is uncertainNot much of a tell here.This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The NZD/USD pair posts a fresh weekly high near 0.5700 in Wednesday’s North American session.

Total refunding of $125B to raise $18.8B in new cash and refund $106.2B in securities$58 billion in 3s$42 billion in 10s$25 billion in 30sStatementAll the numbers are unchanged and that was expected.The Treasury said there would be 'greater than normal' bill issuance until the debt ceiling is raised.Bond market participants were worried the Treasury would remove the line "Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters" but it was retained. It was introduced in Feb 2024.There is a belief that Bessent will eventually weight issuance more to the long end.This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.32B (revised to -0.99B)Exports 69.46B vs 66.20B priorImports 68.76B vs 67.18B priorThis is Canada's first trade surplus in 10 months.This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month $-78.2 billion revised to $-78.9 billionUS international trade deficit for December $-98.4 billion versus $-96.6 billion estimate. The 2nd largest trade deficit going back to 1992. Goods trade balance $-122.01 billion versus $-122.11 billion preliminary. Last month $-103.5 billionExports $266.5 billion, $-7.1 billion or minus -2.6% versus Novemberimports $364.9 billion, +$12.4 billion versus NovemberDetails from the BEAExports of goods decreased $7.5 billion to $170.2 billion in December.Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $6.7 billion.Consumer goods decreased $1.8 billion.Pharmaceutical preparations decreased $1.4 billion.Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.8 billion.Crude oil decreased $0.9 billion.Other petroleum products decreased $0.3 billion.Other precious metals decreased $0.3 billion.Fertilizers, pesticides, and insecticides decreased $0.3 billion.Capital goods decreased $1.4 billion.Computers decreased $0.9 billion.Civilian aircraft increased $1.4 billion.Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines decreased $0.9 billion.Trucks, buses, and special purpose vehicles decreased $0.4 billion.Other automotive parts and accessories decreased $0.3 billion. Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.8 billion.Exports of services increased $0.4 billion to $96.3 billion in December.Travel increased $0.3 billion.Financial services increased $0.1 billion.Imports of goods increased $11.4 billion to $293.1 billion in December. Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $11.3 billion.Industrial supplies and materials increased $10.8 billion.Finished metal shapes increased $9.2 billion.Nonmonetary gold increased $1.0 billion.Consumer goods increased $2.2 billion.Toys, games, and sporting goods increased $0.8 billion.Cell phones and other household goods increased $0.8 billion.Capital goods increased $1.3 billion.Computers increased $1.2 billion.Computer accessories increased $0.9 billion.Civilian aircraft decreased $1.1 billion.Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines decreased $2.2 billion.Passenger cars decreased $1.6 billion. Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.Imports of services increased $1.0 billion to $71.8 billion in December.Transport increased $0.5 billion.Travel increased $0.3 billion.What were the surpluses/deficits by country:Surpluses (in billions of dollars):Netherlands: $5.0South and Central America: $3.5United Kingdom: $2.3Hong Kong: $0.7Brazil: $0.4Saudi Arabia: $0.4Belgium: $0.3Australia: $0.2Deficits (in billions of dollars):China: $25.3European Union: $20.4Mexico: $15.2Switzerland: $13.0Vietnam: $11.4Canada: $7.9Germany: $7.6Taiwan: $6.9Ireland: $6.2South Korea: $5.6Japan: $5.5India: $4.9Italy: $4.1Malaysia: $2.5France: $1.1Israel: $0.8Singapore: $0.4Some highlights:The deficit with Switzerland increased $9.1 billion to $13.0 billion in December. Exports decreased $0.7 billion to $1.2 billion and imports increased $8.4 billion to $14.2 billion. That is a big change.The deficit with Canada increased $2.9 billion to $7.9 billion in December. Exports decreased $0.4 billion to $29.1 billion and imports increased $2.5 billion to $37.0 billion. That makes sense given all the barkng about Canada.The deficit with Ireland decreased $3.1 billion to $6.2 billion in December. Exports decreased $0.1 billion to $1.2 billion and imports decreased $3.2 billion to $7.5 billionThe data points to the import of goods ahead of tariffs. Most of the increase in imports was in industrial supplies and materials which increased by $10.8 billion. The larger trade deficit also plays into the hands of Trump raising tariffs. The higher the deficit the louder he can be about bringing manufacturing back to the US.This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US ADP private employment report showed a stronger-than-expected job gain of 183K in January, surpassing market forecasts of 149K. Service sector was the clear driver of employment, adding 190K jobs, while goods-producing industries shed -6K positions. By company size, small businesses contributed 39K jobs, medium-sized firms led with 92K, and large corporations added 69K. Wage The post US ADP jobs beats expectations with 183k gain, led by services appeared first on Action Forex.

Final January UK PMI data were revised lower but both Services and Composite activity remained in expansion territory (at 50.8 and 50.6 respectively), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Private sector employment in the US rose 183,000 in December and annual pay was up 4.7% year-over-year, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday.

5-year and 10-year US breakeven inflation rates have just staged a major bullish breakout from a two-year plus of basing formation. Trade War 2.0 involves the US and other major trading partners that may disrupt international trade and dampen global economic growth. The resurgence of stagflation risk has triggered bullish movements on Gold (XAU/USD). Watch The post Gold: Stagflation Fears Supporting Fresh New All-Time Highs appeared first on Action Forex.

WTI Oil futures turn higher after reaching 70 zone. Technical signals reflect persisting caution. Bullish outlook could emerge above 74.00-74.88. WTI oil futures have been in decline for three weeks, shedding 6% since January’s peak of 79.36. Tuesday’s sharp pullback drove the price to 70.66, but fresh buying interest at a key trendline from the The post WTI Oil Futures Pivot Within 70 Area appeared first on Action Forex.

Weaker than expected PMIs from Spain, downward revisions to French data and a minor upgrade for the German Composite index saw the final Eurozone January Services index marked lower than the preliminary release at 51.3 (from 51.4) while the Composite Index was unchanged at 50.1, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

USDJPY fell nearly 0.9% in Asian – early European trading on Wednesday as the dollar remains at the back foot for the third straight day, while yen received fresh boost from stronger than expected rise of earnings in Japan that adds to scenario of more BoJ rate hikes. Today’s drop below temporary base / 50% The post USD/JPY: Falls to 7-Week Low as Strong Japanese Wage Growth Boosts Bets for BoJ Rate Hike appeared first on Action Forex.

Tariff worries are easing—for now, at least—which is allowing the CAD to stabilize.

Market Picture The cryptocurrency market remains in the same position as the previous day, with minor changes at the end of the 24 hours and a capitalisation of $3.21 trillion. Increased buying volumes met market dips, but a new info catalyst is needed for real growth. The Altcoin Season Index fell to 36, indicating that The post Cryptocurrency Market Takes a Wait-and-See Approach appeared first on Action Forex.

The USD continues to retreat, leaving the DXY more than 2% below Monday’s peak, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said that he still thinks the policy rate is modestly restrictive, per Reuters.

Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is rallying near 1% on Wednesday and is into its fifth consecutive day of gains, accounting for more than 2.5% of gains this week and hitting fresh all-time highs near $2,877 while investors pile into the precious metal commodity.

MetaQuotes Software, the dominant provider of trading platform technology, has implemented a significant price increase for its flagship MetaTrader products, affecting brokers worldwide.Industry sources confirmed to Finance Magnates that the increase ranged between 20% and 25%, translating into additional thousands of dollars in monthly expenditures in the increasingly competitive contracts for difference (CFD) industry.MetaQuotes Raises Platform Fees 25%The company's 20-25% price hike, effective January 1, pushes the monthly cost for a comprehensive MetaTrader package to approximately more than $50,000 for brokers using both MT4 and MT5 platforms, Finance Magnates RU learned. However, it should be noted that this data is based solely on information obtained from a few firms that wish to remain anonymous, and the final cost depends on the individual offer negotiated with MetaQuotes. It does not change the fact that the move marks another milestone in the company's pricing strategy, which has seen substantial increase over the past decade.For brokers, however, this should not come as a surprise. Finance Magnates reported earlier in December that MetaQuotes is preparing to increase MetaTrader licensing fees by "at least 20%," and all interested parties have most likely been officially notified.MetaQuotes justified the increase in a client memo, citing rising operational costs and investments in service quality. However, the timing of the announcement, just before the Christmas holidays, might have caught many brokers off guard."We would like to notify you of an upcoming amendment to the monthly license fees of the MetaTrader 4 products,” MetaQuotes wrote to its clients two months ago. “Our commitment to providing you with the highest quality products and services has led to an increase in operating costs which, ultimately, necessitated this price update.”Pricing StructureThe new pricing structure particularly impacts brokers utilizing the full suite of services, including mobile and web terminals, white label solutions, and server infrastructure. A complete MT4 package now costs around $35,000 monthly, while MT5 services add another $20,000 to the bill. Thus, for an all-inclusive package that includes support and maintenance, a brokerage could pay $55,000.However, It is important to remember that brokers rarely can afford both MetaTrader series platforms. In practice, many firms do not use the full range of solutions offered; for example, not every broker requires white label solutions or an additional server.Based on rough calculations, brokers providing both MT4 and MT5 platforms to their clients are estimated to have started paying MetaQuotes approximately $20,000 to $25,000 per month, effective from January 2025.Finance Magnates’ sources also claim that each offer is different and that MetaQuotes has separate deals with various brokers. Consequently, the final values may differ from those assumed above.MetaQuotes MonopolyIn the retail trading sector, the company behind MetaTrader platforms holds an unrivaled position, with their two flagship products dominating the market. The firm is actively encouraging brokers to transition to their latest platform iteration, MetaTrader 5, by discontinuing new license distribution for its predecessor.Recent market analysis conducted by Finance Magnates Intelligence indicates that trading volumes on the newer platform are expected to eclipse those of its older counterpart this year.The tech provider has further strengthened its market control by implementing stringent licensing requirements, particularly affecting international operators. This strategic move was highlighted when the company took decisive action against unauthorized platform usage targeting U.S. customers through proprietary trading services.This article was produced with the assistance of Vadim Sviderski, a contributor at Finance Magnates RU.This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.

The NAGA Group AG, the provider of the all-in-one financial SuperApp NAGA, reported preliminary figures for the financial year 2024, aligning with its expectations. The company focused on completing the complex reverse merger between the former CAPEX Group and The Naga Group. The merger was finalized in August 2024, marking the start of the integration process. This included migrating customers to a single technology platform and optimizing human resources.2024 Transition Year for NAGA GroupAs anticipated, 2024 was a transition year rather than one of growth in revenue and earnings. This was mainly due to the gradual shift towards a unified market approach and reduced marketing expenditures. Group revenues totalled EUR 62.3 million, compared to EUR 77.5 million in the previous year. On the cost side, the company saw savings from reduced marketing and advertising expenses, as well as synergies in personnel and operating costs. Group EBITDA amounted to EUR 8.1 million, with a margin of 13%, up from EUR 8.5 million and 11% in 2023.According to the company, cost savings and efficiency measures will become fully evident in 2025. The launch of the one-brand marketing strategy and the complete transition to a single platform are expected to improve operational efficiency and reduce customer acquisition costs in 2025.Meanwhile, the Group appointed Mike Tyson as its brand ambassador. The partnership was officially announced by NAGA’s CEO, Octavian Pătrașcu, who shared the news of Tyson’s appointment. Pătrașcu noted that the team successfully negotiated and signed contracts with Tyson and coordinated with production teams in Los Angeles and New York, as reported by Finance Magnates.Cash Break-Even AchievedThe NAGA Group achieved cash break-even in 2024, marking the company’s first successful attempt at self-sustainability. The company aims to achieve organic growth through internal financing, with external financing reserved for geographic expansion and potential mergers and acquisitions."For the financial year 2025, The NAGA Group expects a strong increase in EBITDA and net profit, driven by margin improvement through the further implementation of synergies, while returning to 2023 revenue levels," the company stated.This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.

The AUD/USD pair surges to near the key level of 0.6300 in Wednesday’s European session.

USD/CNH is heavy near 7.2700. China’s private sector services growth traction unexpectedly slowed in January, Société Générale's FX analysts note.  

NZD/USD is consolidating recent gains triggered by broad USD weakness, Société Générale's FX analysts note.  

Following the first policy meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% in a widely anticipated decision.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is outperforming and 10-year JGB yields edged up to almost 1.30%, highest level since April 2011, Société Générale's FX analysts note.  

The USD/CAD pair extends its losing streak below the key level of 1.4300 in Wednesday’s European session.

Instead of continuing to decline, US Dollar (USD) more likely to trade in a lower range of 7.2680/1.3200. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; USD could trade in a 7.2430/7.3580 range for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD/JPY recently formed a lower peak near 158.85 than the one achieved last year at 162, BBH FX analysts report.

US Dollar (USD) is under mild downward pressure; it could edge lower, but any decline is unlikely to break below 153.70. In the longer run, for the time being, USD is likely to trade in a 153.70/156.70 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

There were two key factors influencing oil prices yesterday, firstly downward pressure came from China announcing retaliatory tariffs against the US, which included targeting US energy flows.

Eurozone PPI increased by 0.4% mom in December, slightly below market expectations of 0.5% MoM. On a year-over-year basis, PPI was unchanged, above expectations of a -0.1% yoy decline. Breaking down the monthly price changes in Eurozone, energy prices saw the biggest increase at 1.4%, followed by durable consumer goods (+0.2%). Capital goods, intermediate goods, The post Eurozone PPI rises 0.4% in Dec, flat annually appeared first on Action Forex.

5-year and 10-year US breakeven inflation rates have just staged a major bullish breakout from a two-year plus of basing formation. Trade War 2.0 involves the US and other major trading partners that may disrupt international trade and dampen global economic growth. The resurgence of stagflation risk has triggered bullish movements on Gold (XAU/USD). Watch

UK PMI Services was finalized at 50.8 in January, slipping from December’s 51.1, marking its joint-lowest level in 15 months. PMI Composite edged up slightly to 50.6, indicating that overall economic activity remains stagnant, with minimal expansion. According to Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, “stagflation conditions appeared to take a firmer The post UK PMI services finalized at 15-month low, stagflation concerns rise appeared first on Action Forex.

The US Dollar (USD) has continued to lose ground since the US border deal with Mexico and Canada was agreed on Monday.

CFI Financial Group reported highest-ever quarterly trading volume of $1.12 trillion, up from $1.03 trillion in the third quarter, as the online trading provider expanded its geographic footprint. CFI Posts Record $1.12 Trillion Trading VolumeThe Dubai-based company's second-half volume reached $2.15 trillion, according to figures released today (Wednesday). It was a jump of more than 140% compared to the same period a year earlier. CFI also reported a 27% quarter-over-quarter increase in active clients and a 39% rise in client deposits during Q4. “With an all-time high in trading volumes, exponential growth in active clients, and significant global expansion, CFI has set new industry benchmarks, solidifying its position as a dominant force in online trading,” CFI commented.Moreover, the firm established regulated operations in Azerbaijan during the quarter through a new subsidiary, CFI Financial Investment Company, and launched services in South Africa. It also added a third UAE location in Sharjah, supplementing existing offices in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.Exec Moves and UpdatesThe company made several executive appointments, naming Ilgar Rustambayli to lead Azerbaijan operations and Zihaad Israfil as CEO of the South African business. Ziad Melhem joined as chief marketing officer.“With their full dedication, they bring unique strengths that complement our senior management, positioning us to drive CFI toward even greater achievements and reinforce our leadership and innovation in the trading industry,” said Hisham Mansour, Co-founder and Managing Director of CFI.CFI, which provides trading in currencies, equities and commodities, introduced a client rewards program and launched an educational initiative focused on market awareness. The firm also formed marketing partnerships with sports properties, including Formula 1 driver Lewis Hamilton and cricket team MI Cape Town.“Building on this extraordinary year, CFI remains committed to sustained growth, technological innovation, and expanding its reach in key markets. With new initiatives in the pipeline, CFI is poised to redefine excellence in the online trading industry in 2025 and beyond,” the company concluded.Founded in 1998, CFI operates regulated entities in multiple jurisdictions including the UK, UAE, Jordan and Lebanon. The company offers retail trading services through its online platform with features such as zero-spread accounts and commission-free trading on certain products.This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a 0.5605/0.5680 range. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a 0.5510/0.5705 range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is reemerging from the tariff scare and is now up 1.5% since Friday’s close.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

Trading technology provider Acuity Trading has partnered with Aquariux Fintech to integrate its AnalysisIQ tool into the AQX Trader platform. This collaboration aims to provide retail traders with access to Acuity’s sentiment-driven trading signals within AQX Trader’s interface.Acuity Integrates Signals into AQX Trader"Retail traders have long faced challenges in turning technical analysis into actionable opportunities," Andrew Lane, CEO Acuity Trading The integration includes Acuity’s Signal Centre, offering AQX Trader users five free premium trading signals. These signals are designed to identify trading opportunities based on sentiment analysis and provide strategic entry and exit points. The tool supports different trading styles, allowing users to incorporate sentiment data into their decision-making process."By embedding our transparent trading signals into AQX Trader’s platform, we’re delivering expert insights within a streamlined trading experience," Lane added.Meanwhile, Acuity Trading has integrated its analytics tools with Spotware’s cTrader platform, enhancing access to market research resources for brokers and traders. The integration allows cTrader users to utilize Acuity’s AI-powered analytics, news aggregation, and economic calendars through the platform’s plugin.It also supports automated trading systems for direct execution. Brokers can tailor tool access based on server specifications and account balances, and the tools are available through cTrader’s digital store or via dashboard installation, as reported by Finance Magnates.Brokers Enhance Position with AQX IntegrationThe partnership also enhances AQX Trader’s functionality by delivering real-time signals on both desktop and mobile platforms. Multilingual support is available to improve accessibility for global users. Additionally, the integration allows traders to combine sentiment insights with AQX Trader’s existing technical analysis tools.For brokers, the collaboration offers a way to differentiate their services by providing free premium trading signals. According to the firms, these features can help improve client acquisition and retention by enhancing the overall trading experience.This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.

Canada and Mexico were able to negotiate better trading agreements with the US. The dollar collapsed after Trump paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The US implemented tariffs on China, leading to an immediate response. The EUR/USD forecast indicates solid bullish sentiment amid relief over the pause in Trump’s tariffs on Tuesday. Market participants are... The post EUR/USD Forecast: Optimism Grows as Tariff Pause Calms Fears appeared first on Forex Crunch.