Nigeria’s next president may emerge from a contest involving an unprecedented number of voters. Beyond the race for the presidential villa, millions of ballots will determine who governs the country’s 36 states, occupies seats in the National Assembly and represents communities in state houses of assembly.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on Tuesday told Nigerians that the National Register of Voters reached 103 million following the completion of the three-phase Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise and a final biometric cleanup. The exercise recorded 10,772,421 new registrations, according to the commission’s chairman, Joash Amupitan.
The number places Nigeria among the largest electoral democracies in the world and makes the 2027 general elections a consequential test of how effectively the country can translate its vast electorate into participation, credible choices and representative government.
The presidential election is scheduled for Saturday, January 16, 2027, alongside elections into the National Assembly. Governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections will follow on February 6.
With 18 presidential candidates on INEC’s published list, including President Bola Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, and other contenders, voters will have a choice of candidates and political parties competing for the country’s highest office.
But the decisions will extend far beyond the presidency as INEC’s final lists contain 4,408 candidates contesting seats in the National Assembly: 1,195 for the Senate and 3,213 for the House of Representatives. Whoever wins will help shape the laws and decisions that govern Nigerian lives.
However, the most revealing number in the expanding register may not be its headline total but its 43,265,946 voters aged between 35 and 49, who account for 41.83 per cent of the electorate. Their participation could have an enormous bearing on the direction of the elections.
Youth-Powered Number
At the centre of the electoral arithmetic are voters aged 35 to 49 who constitute the largest age group, ahead of the 29,777,576 registered voters aged 18 to 34, who represent 28.79 per cent of the total.
Voters aged 50 to 69 account for 22,982,900, or 22.22 per cent, while those aged 70 and above number 7,402,291, representing 7.16 per cent.
Summed up, the figures show that younger and middle-aged Nigerians have substantial numerical weight. Their decisions on whether to vote, which candidates to support and what issues to prioritise will matter to every party seeking electoral victory.
The gender distribution is also significant. Male voters account for 53,528,218, representing 51.75 per cent of the register, while women number 49,900,497, or 48.25 per cent.
Lagos geographically leads the states with 7,488,633 registered voters, followed by Kano with 6,570,276 and Kaduna with 4,662,640. Katsina, Rivers, Oyo, Delta, Benue, Ogun and Bauchi complete the top 10.
These differences in voter numbers make the electorate an important consideration for political parties seeking support across the federation. But registration figures alone cannot determine the winner. The decisive question is how many registered voters actually turn up and cast valid ballots.
The 2023 Example
Nigeria’s experience in 2023 offers a sobering measure of the challenge. Only 24,025,940 valid votes were recorded in the presidential election, far below the size of the number of voters now reported by INEC.
The 2027 contest presents an opportunity to improve on that figure by converting registration into participation. Doing so will require more than political enthusiasm or a growing register. Voters must understand the electoral process, know what is required of them, and be able to participate without avoidable obstacles.
INEC has scheduled the nationwide display of the register for public scrutiny from October 9 to 16, 2026, in compliance with Section 19(1) of the Electoral Act 2026. Claims and objections arising from the exercise will be addressed subsequently.
PVC Collection
The commission has also scheduled the commencement of nationwide collection of newly issued Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) for October 9. The cards follow the three phases of registration, which recorded 2,611,266 registrations in the first phase, 4,121,835 in the second and 3,867,997 in the third. The registrations remain subject to verification through the Automated Biometric Identification System.
For voters, these processes offer an immediate opportunity to check their registration details, scrutinise the register and resolve discrepancies ahead of election day. Civil society will assess the commission’s distribution and clear communication for efficiency, which will be essential to ensuring that eligible citizens can exercise their franchise.
Some electoral stakeholders, however, argue that the PVC process should not become an obstacle to participation. Atedo Peterside, founder of Anap Foundation, urged INEC to consider alternatives for registered voters who cannot collect their cards, including allowing them to download them.
“If somebody has registered, for goodness sake, the responsibility for getting his PVC to him should be INEC’s,” Peterside said.
“Allow him to download his PVC and go and vote. Otherwise, the PVC is being used as an instrument to disenfranchise selected voters, and it happens massively across the country, and it must stop.”
Austin Aigbe, a member of the Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, called for an audit of the register, arguing that concerns about dead and underage persons remaining on it need to be addressed.
Why Are Voters Wary?
Yet the challenge is not simply persuading Nigerians that voting matters. A September 2026 survey by Yiaga Africa found that 84 per cent of respondents were likely or very likely to vote in 2027, up from 73 per cent in March. The findings also revealed serious concerns that could prevent this willingness from translating into actual turnout.
The survey, titled ‘Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027,’ drew on interviews with 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Security emerged as the biggest potential barrier, with 61 per cent of respondents saying fear of violence could stop them from voting. In the North-East, the figure rose to 78 per cent, while 83 per cent said improved security would make them more likely to participate.
Trust in electoral institutions is another concern. Only 34 per cent said they were confident INEC would conduct credible elections, down from 45 per cent in each of the survey’s two previous rounds. Meanwhile, 49 per cent expressed trust in the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the INEC Election Results Viewing Portal for accreditation and results transmission.
Young Nigerians require particular attention. The survey found that only 40 per cent of young respondents were very likely to vote, compared with 64 per cent of those aged 61 and above. Younger respondents also reported greater fear of electoral violence, lower trust in INEC and greater reliance on social media for election information.
The findings make voter education especially important. It must help eligible citizens understand registration and PVC collection, the voting process, the role of electoral technologies and the importance of checking election information against reliable sources. It must also encourage voters to assess candidates on their policies and records rather than misinformation or inducements.
Safiya Bichi, Yiaga Africa’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, captured this when she said,” Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, they see it as their duty, and they believe their votes can make a difference.”
Bichi described low turnout as a “conversion problem, not an apathy problem,” arguing that institutions responsible for security, electoral credibility and logistics must address the barriers to participation.
The survey found that 49 per cent of respondents identified a desire for leadership change as their leading motivation for voting. The economy and jobs ranked next at 38 per cent, followed by security at 36 per cent. Meanwhile, 71 per cent rated the economy as poor or very poor, and 54 per cent disapproved of President Tinubu’s performance.
These findings suggest that voters’ choices will be influenced by their assessment of leadership, economic conditions and security, making clear policy choices and informed scrutiny essential to the contest.
Protecting The Choice
The responsibility for credible elections extends beyond voters and INEC. Political parties, candidates, security agencies, the judiciary and the media all have roles in creating conditions for meaningful participation.
Amupitan has warned that poor administrative performance could amplify misinformation and undermine public confidence.
“Today, a single malicious fake news post or deepfake can travel across millions of screens in seconds.
“But let me be clear: false narratives only gain traction when our administrative execution falters. When a polling unit opens late, when an officer displays nonchalance or perceived bias, or when technical glitches are met with silence, we inadvertently validate the cynics, deepen voter apathy, and fuel disinformation,” the professor said.
“The conduct, competence, and character of our staff in the field are either our strongest defence against fake news or its biggest catalyst.”
For a country with 103 million registered voters, the measure of electoral success cannot be the size of the register alone, but must also include the number of eligible citizens who participate, the credibility of the process and the extent to which voters can make their choices freely.
Surpassing the 24 million valid votes recorded in 2023 would be a meaningful step towards broader participation. Achieving it will depend on voter education, accessible PVC collection, security, institutional credibility, and a process that earns public confidence.
In January and February 2027, Nigerians will make their choices; however, the task ahead is to ensure that the millions counted on the register are not merely names and numbers, but citizens allowed to make their choices count.
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