By Gabriel Ewepu
ABUJA — AHEAD of the 2027 general elections, an election observer, Yiaga Africa, in a new survey titled ‘Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027’ released on Wednesday, revealed that no fewer than 84 per cent of Nigerians intend to vote during the elections, but fear of violence, declining confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, and vote buying could undermine voter turnout.
The third round of the organisation’s National Voting Intentions Survey, NVIS 3.0, found that 61 per cent of Nigerians said fear of violence could prevent them from voting, while only 34 per cent expressed confidence in INEC’s ability to conduct credible elections.
The report presented by Yiaga Africa’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, Sophia Bichi, is based on interviews with 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, conducted in September 2026 through telephone interviews and, for the first time, face-to-face engagements in rural communities.
The survey, which tracks changes in voter intentions since December 2025, found that although willingness to participate in the elections had risen, the level of commitment remained fragile amid concerns about insecurity, electoral credibility and the monetisation of politics.
According to the findings, the proportion of Nigerians who said they were likely or very likely to vote increased from 77 per cent in December 2025 to 84 per cent in September 2026, following a decline to 73 per cent in March 2026.
However, the proportion of respondents who said they were “very likely” to vote dropped from 52 per cent in December 2025 to 48 per cent in March 2026 and 47 per cent in September 2026.
The report also found that only 41 per cent of respondents were likely to vote and very certain of their choice, raising concerns about whether current voting intentions would translate into actual participation on election day.
On security, the survey identified fear of electoral violence as the biggest potential barrier to participation, with 61 per cent of respondents saying it could keep them away from polling units.
The figure rose to 78 per cent in the North-East, while 83 per cent of respondents said improved security would make them more likely to vote.
Yiaga Africa said the findings underscored the need for security agencies to prioritise voter protection ahead of the 2027 elections.
Confidence in INEC also remained weak, with only 34 per cent of respondents expressing confidence that the commission would conduct credible elections, compared with 45 per cent in each of the two previous survey rounds.
Distrust was particularly pronounced in the South-East, where 62 per cent said they were not confident in INEC, and the South-South, where the figure stood at 57 per cent.
Despite concerns about the electoral umpire, 49 per cent of respondents said they trusted the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System, BVAS, and the INEC Result Viewing Portal, IReV, for voter accreditation and result transmission.
Awareness of electoral reforms also increased from 24 per cent in December 2025 to 62 per cent in September 2026, suggesting growing public familiarity with changes intended to improve electoral transparency.
The survey indicated that government performance and economic conditions would be major factors influencing voter decisions in 2027.
It found that 54 per cent of respondents disapproved of the President’s performance, while 71 per cent rated the economy as poor or very poor.
A desire for a change in leadership was the leading motivation for voting, cited by 49 per cent of respondents. The economy and jobs ranked as the leading policy priority for 38 per cent, while 36 per cent identified security as a major concern.
The report said the findings suggested that voters would pay close attention to candidates’ capacity to address economic hardship, unemployment and insecurity.
The survey further highlighted a generational gap in voting intentions, with younger Nigerians showing less enthusiasm for participation than older respondents.
Only 40 per cent of young people said they were very likely to vote, compared with 64 per cent of respondents aged 61 and above.
Young respondents also reported greater fear of electoral violence, lower trust in INEC and substantially greater reliance on social media for election-related information.
Yiaga Africa warned that these concerns could weaken youth participation unless electoral stakeholders addressed the factors discouraging younger voters.
Confidence in the judiciary also emerged as a major concern, with 63 per cent of respondents expressing little or no confidence that the courts would resolve electoral disputes fairly.
The figure rose to 81 per cent in the South-South, pointing to widespread doubts about the judiciary’s ability to provide credible resolution when election outcomes are contested.
Speaking on the findings, Safiya Bichi, Head, Knowledge Management and Learning, Yiaga Africa, said Nigerians remained interested in elections but faced significant barriers to participation.
“Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, they see it as their duty and they believe their votes can make a difference. What stands between that willingness and the ballot box is fear, distrust and money. Low turnout in Nigeria is a conversion problem, not an apathy problem, and the responsibility for fixing it lies with the institutions and actors who control security, credibility and logistics. With the presidential election on 16 January 2027, the window to act is short.”
However, to address the challenges identified in the survey, Yiaga Africa called on the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a threat-based national election security plan through the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security, ICCES, by November 2026.
It urged authorities to prioritise the North-East, North-West and North-Central and ensure that security arrangements protect voters, rather than focusing solely on election materials.
The organisation also called on INEC to make a binding public commitment to real-time uploading of all polling unit results to IReV, publish and test its results management protocol, and undertake targeted confidence-building initiatives in the South-East and South-South.
The judiciary was urged to resolve pre-election candidacy disputes before ballot papers are printed and publish clear timelines for the determination of election petitions.
Political parties and candidates were advised to campaign on costed plans addressing insecurity and economic challenges, while signing and honouring the Peace Accord and an enforceable anti-vote-buying pledge.
Yiaga Africa further called on civil society organisations and the media to shift voter education from general appeals to vote towards providing concrete assurances about electoral safety and credibility.
It urged them to target young people, women and underserved communities while intensifying efforts to counter election misinformation.
The organisation maintained that addressing insecurity, rebuilding confidence in electoral institutions and tackling vote buying would be critical to translating Nigerians’ stated willingness to vote into actual participation in the 2027 general elections.
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