A new survey by Yiaga Africa has found that 84 per cent of Nigerians are likely or very likely to vote in the 2027 general elections, although fears of violence, distrust in electoral institutions and vote buying could undermine turnout.
The third round of Yiaga Africa’s National Voting Intentions Survey (NVIS 3.0), released on Wednesday, showed that while voter intention has increased from 73 per cent in March 2026 to 84 per cent in September, confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fallen.
According to the survey, only 34 per cent of respondents are confident that INEC will conduct credible elections, compared with 45 per cent recorded in each of the two previous rounds of the survey.
The report, titled ‘Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027’, is based on interviews with 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
The interviews were conducted in September 2026 through telephone calls and, for the first time, face-to-face engagements in rural communities.
Insecurity Biggest Barrier
The survey identified insecurity as the biggest potential barrier to voter turnout, with 61 per cent of respondents saying fear of violence could prevent them from voting.
The figure rises to 78 per cent in the North-East, while 83 per cent of respondents said improved security would make them more likely to vote.
Yiaga Africa said the findings show that Nigerians remain interested in participating in elections, but that willingness may not translate into actual turnout without improvements in security and confidence in the electoral process.
Confidence in INEC was particularly low in the South-East and South-South, where 62 per cent and 57 per cent of respondents respectively said they were not confident in the commission.
Despite the decline in institutional trust, 49 per cent of respondents said they trust the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the Independent National Electoral Commission Election Results Viewing Portal (IReV) for accreditation and results transmission.
Awareness of electoral reforms has also increased, rising from 24 per cent in December 2025 to 62 per cent in the latest survey.
Economy, Leadership Change To Shape Votes
The survey found that 49 per cent of respondents identified a desire for a change in leadership as their leading motivation to vote in 2027.
The economy and jobs, at 38 per cent, and security, at 36 per cent, were identified as the other major policy priorities.
The findings also showed dissatisfaction with the performance of the current administration, with 54 per cent of respondents disapproving of President Bola Tinubu’s performance.
Seventy-one per cent rated the state of the economy as poor or very poor.
Yiaga Africa said the findings suggest that perceptions of government performance and prevailing economic conditions are likely to weigh heavily on voters’ choices in the 2027 elections.
Young Voters Less Certain
The survey also found weaker voting intentions among young Nigerians.
Only 40 per cent of young respondents said they were very likely to vote, compared with 64 per cent among respondents aged 61 and above.
Young respondents also reported greater fear of electoral violence, lower trust in INEC and greater reliance on social media for election information.
The survey further found that 63 per cent of respondents had little or no confidence that the judiciary would resolve electoral disputes fairly. The figure rose to 81 per cent in the South-South.
Commenting on the findings, Safiya Bichi, Head of Knowledge Management and Learning at Yiaga Africa, said Nigerians had not given up on elections but that fear, distrust and money remained obstacles to participation.
“Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, they see it as their duty and they believe their votes can make a difference,” she said.
Bichi described low turnout in Nigeria as a “conversion problem, not an apathy problem”, arguing that institutions and actors responsible for security, electoral credibility and logistics must address the barriers to participation.
With the presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027, she said the time available to address the concerns was limited.
Yiaga Africa has consequently called on the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a national election security plan, while urging INEC to commit publicly to real-time uploading of polling unit results to IReV.
It also called on the judiciary to resolve pre-election candidacy disputes before ballots are printed, and urged political parties and candidates to sign and honour the Peace Accord and an anti-vote-buying pledge.
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