2027: El-Rufai, Ego Wars and the Dwindling Fortunes of ADC

By Jamilu Isa Kwarbai

Forget the grand talk of “rescuing Nigerian democracy.” The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is learning the hard way that a political movement cannot capture the presidency in 2027 if it is busy eating itself alive from within. While the party’s national leadership sells the illusion of a grand, unified opposition alternative, its foundational structures are fracturing under the weight of oversized egos. And the man holding the fork in this latest feast of self-destruction? Nasir El-Rufai.

Salihu Mohammed Lukman — former APC Vice Chairman and one of the men who actually built the ADC coalition brick by brick — just walked. And he was point blank; he bombed Elrufai and his lackeys in Kaduna State, while taking Amaechi to the cleaners.

In a scathing letter to ADC National Chairman, Senator David Mark, Lukman didn’t mince words: months of “painful, hostile treatment” from El-Rufai and his loyalists had pushed him out. The final straw, he said, was being reduced “to the status of a bastard”, sensing how leadership positions were being carved up.

To make matters worse, Lukman openly weaponized the names of other coalition bigwigs, accusing the party’s Vice Presidential hopeful Rotimi Amaechi of going into “overdrive mode” to cut backdoor deals with questionable characters behind his back.

Here’s the twist that makes this whole meltdown even juicier: just months ago, it was Lukman who stood accused of running the game — allegedly using his clout at ADC’s national level to sideline three of El-Rufai’s most loyal lieutenants: former commissioner Ja’afaru Sani, former Chief of Staff Bashir Saidu, and Hajiya Hafsat Baba. Back then, it was the El-Rufai camp crying foul, warning that its loyalists were being systematically frozen out of the very structures they built. Fast forward to today, and the tables have turned completely. Now Lukman is the one crying “bastard treatment,” and El-Rufai’s camp is the one holding the levers. Whoever’s on top changes by the month — which tells you everything about how unstable this “coalition” really is.

Lukman didn’t hide behind diplomatic language either. He said flatly that as far as El-Rufai and his camp were concerned, he was the obstacle — and he had now decided to remove himself so they could have their way. He also delivered the line that should terrify every ADC strategist: the coalition, he warned, is being steadily reduced to a “marginal participant” ahead of 2027. This was never about ideology. It is about who controls the machine.

Imagine, Lukman spent over a year trying to unify opposition figures, only to become the target of what he called an orchestrated campaign to push him out. Even he admitted the irony: the same coalition built to fight the ruling party is now practicing it. And that’s exactly why ADC’s national fortunes are dwindling before the race even starts.

Political parties are built on regional foundations; when a critical pillar cracks, the whole house shakes. Whether it’s Lukman squeezing out El-Rufai’s loyalists in May, or El-Rufai’s camp squeezing out Lukman in July, the pattern is the same: musical chairs with knives. A movement built on “saving democracy” can’t survive its own leaders treating founding members like enemies. Lukman’s exit is a signal flare to the other heavyweights flirting with the ADC alliance—including the factions aligned with Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar—that today’s kingmaker is tomorrow’s casualty. While ADC burns energy on internal turf wars, the APC is out organizing votes. Nobody joins a coalition that devours its own.

Here’s the brutal math nobody in the party wants to face. When votes split three ways because of personal grievances, the headline becomes the story. “ADC in crisis” now dominates the news cycle instead of any actual policy message. Bola Tinubu’s camp doesn’t even need to launch an attack; they can just point at the wreckage and ask how a party that can’t stop purging itself plans to run a complex nation.

El-Rufai may well win control of the party machinery, as it is now clear that he has been operating from the shadows. But in doing so, he could be handing the ruling party 2027 without them lifting a finger. The opposition came to bury the status quo. Unless David Mark steps in and stops the bleeding now, it may end up burying itself instead — one purge at a time.

*Kwarbai wrote from Zaria, Kaduna State, kwarbaiAnalyst@rocketmail.com