By Luminous Jannamike
ABUJA – Outgoing President of the Nigerian Institute of Management (NIM), Commodore Abimbola Ayuba (rtd), has warned that insecurity could further discourage Nigerians from voting in 2027, as turnout in presidential elections continues to fall.
Only 26.7 per cent of registered voters participated in the 2023 presidential election, down from 34.75 per cent in 2019 and 43.65 per cent in 2015.
The figures point to a growing challenge for the next election: getting Nigerians not just to register, but to turn out and vote despite security fears and dwindling confidence in the political process.
Speaking exclusively to Vanguard as a security expert, Ayuba blamed the country’s security problems on poorly policed borders, cross-border ethnic ties, foreign-backed jihadist forces, access to mineral resources, farmer-herder conflicts and political and ethnic manipulation.
“The current security is highly motivated by porous underpoliced border aided by the cross-cultural affinities of boundary communities who indeed are kith and kin and are sympathetic to each other’s cause,” he said.
He also identified unrestricted movement and access to Nigeria’s vast mineral resources as factors contributing to insecurity.
“The freedom of movement and unrestricted access to the nation’s vast mineral resources is yet another,” he said.
Ayuba called for a broader security response, including a well-equipped border force, state police, and community policing, saying, “It requires a whole of society and multiplex actions.”
Turning to the 2027 elections, he said voter education must be sustained and the Electoral Act enforced, with offenders facing punitive measures. He also called for politicians and officials who undermine the electoral process to be publicly exposed.
“Naming and shaming errant politicians, electoral and security officials,” he said, should be part of the response.
He stressed that voters and electoral officials must be protected and polling units secured.
“Ensuring adequate security of polling booths, safety of voters and other electoral officials,” he said, was essential.
The concern for 2027 is that insecurity could make an already difficult turnout problem worse. If voters fear for their safety or lose faith in the process, fewer may turn up, leaving the election to be decided by a smaller share of the electorate.
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