2027  Presidential Polls: The Calculus of  Victory and Failure

Paul Obi x-rays the political undercurrents in APC, Wike-PDP, NDC and ADC ahead of the 2027 presidential election

About the twilight of 2022, when the All Progressives Congress (APC) were on the verge of conjuring who flies the party’s presidential ticket, and then President Muhammadu Buhari’s handlers were shopping for a presidential candidate outside of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, – the calculations for both the APC and the then opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) were already in top gear. In APC: Buhari’s men were zeroing in on then Senate President, Ahmad Lawan.

The Tinubu’s camp had two options – work hard to get the ticket and if it failed, disrupt APC at the presidential polls by supporting a southern candidate. In PDP, the juggernauts led by then party’s National Chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu not only underestimated Peter Obi, they clandestinely etched him out from the vice presidential candidacy, while boasting that Atiku Abubakar already had 11 million votes in his pocket.

What were the outcomes of the above politicking? Before the Buhari’s handlers knew it, Tinubu had infiltrated all the party apparatchiks, including state institutions.

In PDP, Obi sensing the betrayal and the naked marginalisation of the South-east, shipped to unknown Labour Party.

In Obi’s stead, then Governor of Delta State, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa was railroaded to the vice presidential ticket.

At the presidential elections, Obi went to the campaign with no shishi – a moniker for no sharing of money (a political aberration in the Nigerian sense).

Atiku went with the swaggering of 11 million votes – some said was merely a phantom. Tinubu on the other hand went to town invoking the insidious doctrine of grab it, snatch it, and run with it.

What many political observers said amounted to a rallying of the troops for the subversion of the democratic process – the 2023 presidential election.

At the end, the trio of Tinubu, Obi and Atiku all won 11 states each; while Tinubu was nocturnally announced the victor.

Atiku came second with 6.8 million votes. An underrated Obi shocked many and came third with about 6.1 million votes. Those were the calculus of victory and failure in 2023.

By January 16, 2027, Nigerians will return to similar calculus. A calculus that will be shaped by uncertainty, subterfuge, horse-trading, tribesmen up in arms in support of their pseudo-democrats and powers-that-be.

More so, a disparate opposition unwilling to learn from its past self-harm, and a hybrid democracy that Prof. Farooq Kperogi now tagged ethnocracy. 

Within the Tinubu’s camp, APC believes it has the magic wane to coast to victory. In April, Tinubu bragged that the “Deal is done… During the primary that brought me here, it was tough.

During the general election that brought me here, it was tough…” Is it now that I am the president that they will scare me off, Tinubu seems to demonstrate with his hands.

This confidence recently compelled APC stalwarts like Senator Orji Uzor Kalu to boast that “APC is rocking like hurricane.”

Conversely, the response that greeted the defection of Rabiu Kwankwaso to ADC, then to NDC, the joining of forces with the Obi camp, including the shenanigans by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) which an Abuja Federal High Court has now nullified and voided was nothing more than a panic mood on steroid.

It exposed the ruling party and gave the opposition the hint that they could defeat Tinubu and APC squarely. 

In the far North, mobilisation against Tinubu’s second term ambition has become more intense. Some said it surpasses the one that was staged against Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. Reasons?

The vexations of the North against Tinubu are legion: i) that the weaponization of Muslim-Muslim ticket was purely a political hoodwink and dribbling, ii) neglect and marginalization of the rest of the country except the South West, iii) complete takeover of government and state institutions by Lagos City Boys, iv) government self-inflicted economic hardship on Nigerians with the North, being the worst hit, v) incarceration of Northern Nigeria political heavy weights like Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai while freeing others, vi) reports that Tinubu will promptly restructure Nigeria to True Fiscal Federalism should he win – a move the North is vehemently opposed to.

These labels against Asiwaju are same political crimes the late former President Buhari committed against the Nigerian state. Buhari even constructed a railway to Maradi in Niger Republic. A feat Tinubu will never contemplate extending to Benin Republic. Yet, both Buhari and Tinubu’s policies have been the most excruciating since 1914 – the amalgamation.

Chances are that in 2027, the debate on whether Tinubu’s policies would or should continue will be front and centre. The dynamics of the calculus of victory and failure, is therefore, being put to test with where the pendulum swings to in the North and partly the South-South.

In January, the North would have to prove the veracity of such a calculus by dethroning President Tinubu or hand him a second term. To achieve the former, the million-dollar question in the hearts of many now is whether the North would be able to overcome a Peter Obi’s Presidency with 2027 presidential polls even as Obi pledged a single term of four years? Or stay with Atiku Abubakar whose presidential ambition barely resonates in any of the 17 Southern States but has the potential to sweep the Northern votes wholly? Again, will Goodluck Jonathan enter the race, and what happened next to President Tinubu and Peter Obi Southern base?

First, let’s explore the calculus arithmetically: Tinubu has the South-west. In the South-south, it would appear the First Lady, Remi Tinubu, Senate President, Godswil Akpabio and Minister of FCT, Nyesom Wike have locked down the zone.

In Delta, the combined forces of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, Senator Okowa and James Ibori (Ogidigbodigbo) may hold sway.

But just like in 2023, the Gen Zs might teach them another bitter lesson. In Edo, Adams Oshiomhole and Governor Monday Okpehbolo said they have 2.5 million votes locked down for Tinubu. How realistic?  The signpost of Tinubu’s defeat in Edo in favour of Obi still looms large courtesy of Gen Zs. Akwa Ibom, Obi’s in-law might be a hard nut to crack for the opposition. 

In Cross River, Governor Out’s lieutenants like Ambassador Soni Abang has been moving across the length and breadth of the state fortifying vote banks to avoid the shame of losing to Peter Obi like in 2023. Still, nothing is certain. Therefore, the South-south and North-central are basically the swing states for 2027. The South-east is completely checked in for Peter Obi. Then the whole battle shifts to the three Northern zones. The real headache for Tinubu is in the North-east and North-west.

In Bauchi for instance, a Tinubu’s endorsement event went up in smoke, turning violent and anti-Tinubu rally. Speaker Abbas Tajudeen recently was likewise attacked in Zaria, Kaduna State for campaigning for Asiwaju. What will then happen in places like Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Kano?

Strategically, the calculus of victory and failure for the 2027 is also depended on what happens with the opposition mostly the Nyesom Wike led PDP, NDC and the ADC.

With Obi and Kwankwaso defecting to NDC, the expected unified single front has been busted and derailed. Some opined that the opposition must therefore navigate the murky political waters of Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi and Jonathan’s dilly-dallying ambition to scale through.

But even at that, who will call the shots among the opposition?  The argument is that with the most popular Southern politician in Peter Obi; the most popular Northern politician in Rabiu Kwankwaso; and with the duo boosting 2027 polls with the largest political movements in the country – Obidient Movement and Kwankwasiyya Movement, a Tinubu’s ambition will be shaken to its roots.

With Kwankwaso and Countryman – Senator Seriaki Dickson, Obi, this time, may avoids the loopholes of setting up not-too impressive presidential campaign like in 2023. What if the whole Northern Nigeria decides to vote for their son – Atiku Abubakar only? That is another web of uncertainty.

In Nigeria, just like Tinubu has also displayed with his hands as the signpost of what is to come in 2027, politicians do not really wait to be asked by voters to follow Sydney J. Harry’s quote above on whether they are the powers that ought to be.

For the most part, political brigandage is the most portent tool. In 2027, ending such democratic carnage lies with citizens and voters.

In 2027, is Nigeria dealing with sophisticated voters or tribalists with voter’s ID to thump-print for fellow tribesmen? All things being equal, for the North, it must first overcome several of its own phobias and political frailty.

Overall, would Obi and Kwankwaso have the political gravitas to undo Asiwaju in January, 2027? Does Atiku have a hidden magic wane? How about Jonathan? The indispensable answers to the above question gravitate around the acts of omission and commission hovering around APC, NDC, Wike-PDP and ADC; and the dichotomies of North and South. There also lies the calculus of victory and failure in Africa’s biggest democracy.

Obi, is a lecturer, journalist, researcher and teaches journalism and political communication.