By Luminous Jannamike
ABUJA — Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar’s 2027 presidential ambition is drawing attention amid growing discontent with the All Progressives Congress, APC, in Northern Nigeria, claims of a shift in the late President Muhammadu Buhari’s political support base and mounting public frustration over economic hardship.
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Although President Bola Tinubu retains the advantages of incumbency and an extensive political structure, developments in the North, where Atiku has considerable political networks, could provide the former vice-president with an opportunity to mount a formidable challenge in the next presidential election.
The emerging political calculations are being driven by Atiku’s renewed mobilisation efforts, claims of a possible realignment of Buhari’s political followers and the growing expectation that economic dissatisfaction could become a major factor in the 2027 contest.
Atiku has placed considerable emphasis on Northern voter mobilisation, urging supporters in Sokoto to mobilise their families, friends and communities, turn out massively and protect their ballots.
“I appeal to every one of you to come out, mobilise your families, your friends and all well-wishers. Vote massively, protect your vote, and make sure your vote is counted and announced,” he said.
He warned that poor turnout could undermine the opposition’s numerical strength.
“If you fail to turn out in large numbers, people will go from village to village buying voters’ cards to create the impression that we do not have as many supporters as those in the South,” he warned.
The former vice-president’s emphasis on turnout reflects the importance of translating political support into actual votes, particularly in a region whose electoral strength could prove decisive in the next presidential contest.
Northern calculations
Adding another dimension to Atiku’s Northern calculations, former Minister of Sports and Youth Development, Solomon Dalung, an African Democratic Congress, ADC, chieftain who served under Buhari, claimed that the late president’s political following was shifting towards Atiku.
Dalung linked the development to a reported visit by Buhari’s widow, Aisha, to the former vice-president. He described it as evidence of a political realignment.
“The message she took for any politician to know is that the 12 million votes have been successfully transferred. We have had a phone call from the grave of Buhari that we should vote Atiku,” he said.
He also expressed confidence that Atiku could defeat Tinubu, arguing that the former vice-president remained a formidable political contender despite the challenges facing his platform.
“I am confident that as events are unfolding, Tinubu, even if he would take over the ADC secretariat and stop ADC from campaigning, cannot defeat Atiku Abubakar in 2027,” Dalung said.
Although Dalung’s claim about the transfer of Buhari’s 12 million votes is a partisan political assertion rather than a verified movement of voters, it highlights the importance Atiku’s supporters attach to the late president’s political legacy and its possible implications for the 2027 election.
Economic realities
Beyond the Northern political calculations, economic hardship could provide another opening for the opposition. Rising living costs, food insecurity, unemployment and persistent insecurity have intensified public concerns about the direction of the country under the Tinubu administration.
For Atiku, the opportunity lies in converting those grievances into electoral support through a convincing alternative on economic management, security and job creation.
However, his ambition faces significant obstacles. The APC retains the advantages of incumbency, serving governors and established grassroots structures, while Atiku must rebuild his appeal beyond his traditional Northern support base, particularly in the South.
There is also the unresolved legal uncertainty surrounding the ADC leadership and the implications of the Federal High Court judgment for the party’s political activities and candidates.
Ultimately, the 2027 contest could test whether dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration, combined with Atiku’s Northern political networks and the possible realignment of Buhari’s supporters, can translate into a broader national electoral challenge.
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