…Report says 640 killed in October as a result of broader insecurity
…Experts warn against violence, fake news
By Nnamdi Ojiego
60 days to the 2027 general elections, concerns are mounting over the safety of the electoral process as rising insecurity, attacks on political gatherings and the spread of misinformation threaten to undermine citizens’ participation in the polls.
The concerns have been heightened by fresh incidents of political violence in different parts of the country, including Calabar, Cross River State, Asaba, Delta State, and Sokoto, where political supporters and opposition figures have reportedly come under attack.
The developments have renewed questions about the preparedness of security agencies to protect candidates, party supporters and voters, particularly in a country already grappling with banditry, insurgency, kidnapping and communal violence.
A report by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), Nigeria Election Security Tracker for October 2026 provides a troubling picture of the security situation.
It recorded 640 deaths during the month (October), representing a 61.62 per cent increase from the 396 deaths recorded in September.
Of the 640 deaths, 638 were attributed to broader insecurity, while two resulted from election-related attacks in Enugu and Ebonyi.
The North-East accounted for the highest number of fatalities, with 409 deaths.
The report also documented 16 election-related incidents in October, compared with 14 in September, representing a 14.29 per cent increase.
Attacks on campaign gatherings and convoys accounted for 11 of the 16 incidents.
Other cases involved assaults on individuals, attacks on political property and the restriction of a political gathering.
The incidents affected several political parties, including the All Progressives Congress (APC) and African Democratic Congress (ADC), which each recorded four cases, while the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) recorded three.
Two of the incidents were fatal. Ifeanyi Nwolie died from gunshot injuries sustained during the NDC campaign launch in Enugu on October 10.
In Ebonyi, gunmen attacked the convoy of NDC candidate, Rollins Offia-Nwali, on October 22, killing one person, injuring three others and burning his vehicle. The candidate reportedly escaped.
The CDD report also documented attacks on ADC convoys in Igueben and Kogi, disruption of PDP consultations in Calabar, an attack on an ADC candidate’s meeting in Obosi, Anambra State, and the prevention of supporters from gathering for the Obi-Kwankwaso march in Abuja.
Although broader insecurity accounted for most of the fatalities, the report warned that its consequences could extend to the electoral process, particularly in communities where residents have been displaced or roads have become unsafe.
According to the report, insecurity could prevent election officials and party agents from reaching vulnerable communities, while displaced residents and those living in unsafe areas may be unable to check the voter register or reach their polling centres.
November incidents heighten concerns
Developments in November appear to have reinforced the concerns raised by the October report.
In Calabar, Cross River State, the convoy of Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the NDC, and party supporters reportedly came under attack by suspected political thugs on November 4, shortly after his arrival in the state capital for a political engagement.
The attackers allegedly hurled stones, bottles and other dangerous objects at the convoy around Watt Market, leaving several supporters injured and vehicles damaged.
The police confirmed the incident and announced the arrest of a 27-year-old suspect, while investigations commenced to identify other suspects and their alleged sponsors.
On the same day, police intervened to prevent a possible confrontation between NDC supporters attending Obi’s town hall meeting and APC supporters holding a rally in another part of Calabar.
The two groups reportedly converged around the Metropolitan Hotel area, disrupting movement and commercial activities before security operatives restored order.
In Asaba, Delta State, the situation was more tragic.
A political procession organised by the Obidient/OK Movement in support of the NDC presidential candidate was attacked by suspected hoodlums along Nnebisi Road on November 7.
One person was killed and five others injured, according to the Delta State Police Command.
The police said they had received intelligence indicating the possibility of violence and had advised the organisers against an open-road procession, recommending a designated venue where adequate security could be provided.
The organisers, however, proceeded with the procession, according to the police account.
The incident generated accusations and counter-accusations between the NDC and APC.
While NDC chieftain and former Speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly, Victor Ochei, accused members of the ruling party of being responsible, the APC denied the allegation, insisting that there was no evidence linking its members to the violence.
Police said investigations were ongoing.
In Sokoto, the ADC raised the alarm over alleged attacks on its supporters, including members of its women’s wing who participated in a solidarity march on October 28.
The party also alleged that its governorship candidate, Manir Muhammad Dan’iya, survived a gun attack on his convoy at the Sultan Abubakar III International Airport on October 30.
It accused suspected gunmen and alleged involvement of state-owned security outfits.
The party further alleged that its campaign office was attacked and that its planned activities were being frustrated through intimidation and pressure on hotel operators.
The November developments have raised fresh concerns about the ability of political parties to conduct their activities without intimidation and the capacity of security agencies to guarantee the safety of all contestants and their supporters.
Misinformation, another threat to 2027
Beyond physical attacks and insecurity, the CDD report identified misinformation, disinformation and hate speech as additional threats to the electoral environment.
It recorded 75 misinformation, disinformation and hate speech narratives in October, down from 105 in September.
Of the October narratives, 37 were false, 31 were misleading, two involved religious threats and hostility, while five could neither be confirmed nor disproved with available evidence.
Some of the claims involved fabricated quotations and manipulated images targeting political candidates, while recycled videos were circulated to exaggerate political support.
The report also identified AI-generated images falsely portraying former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Aminu Tambuwal as receiving Bello Turji into the ADC.
Other fabricated images falsely suggested that campaign materials had been damaged by supporters following an APC rally in Kaduna.
False voter registration information and fabricated candidate notices also circulated, with some using INEC’s identity to mislead the public.
The CDD warned that such narratives could undermine public confidence in electoral institutions and create confusion among voters, particularly when false information circulates alongside genuine administrative challenges.
‘Nobody should risk life to attend rally or vote’
Commenting on the implications of the findings, Dengiyefa Angalapu, CDD’s Research Analyst, said the most significant development in October was the increase in the lethality of security incidents.
According to him, the average number of reported deaths per incident more than doubled, with broader insecurity accounting for 638 of the 640 fatalities.
He said the Binnari attack in Taraba State, which claimed 62 lives and displaced more than 5,000 people, illustrated the severity of the situation.
Angalapu cautioned against assessing the country’s security situation solely through the number of recorded incidents, stressing that the consequences of attacks on communities could extend to the electoral process.
“The big change was how deadly October’s incidents were. Average reported deaths per incident more than doubled, with broader insecurity accounting for 638 of the 640 deaths. That includes community attacks and deaths reported in military operations,” he said.
He added that displacement and unsafe roads could prevent eligible voters from checking the register or reaching polling units, while also making it difficult for INEC officials to access affected communities.
Describing the situation as an early warning requiring urgent attention, Angalapu said the two deaths recorded in campaign attacks in October were only part of the wider threat to political participation.
“Two people were killed in campaign attacks in October, and intimidation can keep many more away from politics. We need police protection for every party, including the roads supporters use, and a quick response to threats,” he said.
He called for sustained investigations into political attacks, prosecution of suspects where evidence supports charges and greater responsibility from political party leaders.
“Party leaders must also rein in members who encourage violence, while INEC needs practical arrangements for displaced voters and unsafe communities. Nobody should have to risk their life to attend a rally or cast a vote,” he added.
‘Electoral process inexorably bound to be violent’
For Sylvester Akhaine, Professor of Political Science at Lagos State University, the growing incidence of political violence must be examined against the background of Nigeria’s troubled party politics and the struggle for political power.
He argued that the problem begins with the process through which political parties select candidates, noting that the absence of genuine internal democracy contributes to the emergence of contestants whose political ambitions are driven largely by the pursuit of power and personal accumulation.
“Electoral integrity begins from the choice of contestants to run for public office. Do they emanate from a process underlined by internal party democracy? In our context, these processes are fraught with manipulation. Elements without character are thrown up for electoral contests,” he said.
Akhaine argued that where politics becomes the primary means of economic accumulation, competition for political office is likely to become fierce and violent.
“Against the backdrop of politics as the only game in town and primary source of easy accumulation, the process is inexorably bound to be violent. The present contestants in the field are all over-ambitious elements, hence the incremental violence being encountered,” he added.
On the implications for voter participation, the political scientist warned that an atmosphere of insecurity could affect turnout and ultimately influence electoral outcomes.
“In an atmosphere of siege, it is bound to affect the turnout of voters. Fear and violence would affect electoral outcomes,” he said.
He maintained that the attacks reflected a history of violence that had continued to dog Nigeria’s electoral process, arguing that institutional reforms alone might not be sufficient without a change in the character and disposition of those occupying positions of authority.
“Institutions are habituated by men and women. The beautiful ones have not been born. Enlightened self-interest might save the day,” he said.
‘Security agencies overstretched’
A security governance expert at the Federal University of Lafia, Professor Al Chukwuma Okoli, also expressed concern over the increasing lethality of insecurity, warning that the security situation could make the 2027 electoral process more difficult to manage.
He said the sharp rise in fatalities, despite the relatively modest increase in election-related incidents, suggested that insecurity was becoming more deadly and unpredictable.
According to him, the security challenges require a shift from reactive deployments to intelligence-led operations, with stronger coordination among security agencies.
“The spike in human fatalities relative to what seems to be a modest rise in election-related incidents suggests that insecurity is becoming more lethal and less predictable. This implies, among other things, that securing 2027 election requires proactive, intelligence-focused and synergised security approach instead of a reactive and often uncoordinated deployment of forces,” he said.
Okoli noted that security agencies were already overstretched in several parts of the country affected by banditry, terrorism and other forms of armed violence.
He warned that this could leave campaign convoys and political gatherings vulnerable, particularly where there was inadequate intelligence gathering, early warning and coordination.
He therefore urged federal and state authorities to conduct threat assessments before political events, secure campaign routes and establish rapid response mechanisms.
“State and Federal authorities should put in place measures that are amenable to pre-event threat assessments. This is in addition to ensuring secured and varied convoy routes, rapid response mechanisms, protected polling and collation arenas, and clear safety communication for both the voting populace and other political actors,” he said.
A forensic investigator and criminal intelligence specialist, Alfred Ononugbo, was less optimistic about the ability of security agencies to contain the situation, arguing that the country’s wider governance and economic challenges could affect their effectiveness.
He suggested that politically motivated intimidation and violence were becoming part of the struggle for political advantage ahead of the elections.
According to him, the situation could worsen if political actors continue to resort to intimidation rather than presenting their records and programmes to voters.
“If you are running a performance-based campaign, you will not necessarily need these unauthorised activities and subterranean activities of anti-social people,” he said.
Ononugbo also expressed concern that security personnel, being Nigerians themselves, were not insulated from the economic difficulties affecting the country.
He argued that poor remuneration, rising living costs and other economic pressures could expose security operatives to undue influence from powerful political interests.
“You see, when you talk of Nigerian security agencies, you forget that they are Nigerians and victims of the same poor performance of governance. So you don’t expect anything fantastic from people who are saddled with all manner of burdens that is weighing them down,” he said.
He warned that security agencies were already grappling with terrorism and banditry, and the addition of politically motivated violence could further stretch their capacity.
“The police and the security agencies are overwhelmed. They are dealing with the terrorism and banditry. Now you are bringing political violence to add to their overwhelmed,” he said.
Ononugbo called for widespread civic education and public awareness to help Nigerians understand that their votes and democratic choices belonged to them and must be protected.
He urged the media, civil society groups and other stakeholders to take a more active role in educating citizens and discouraging political violence.
‘INEC must map risk-prone areas’
A former spokesperson for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Barrister Fetus Okoye, said the commission must work closely with security agencies to protect election officials, voters and other stakeholders, particularly in areas prone to violence.
He said the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security must be fully engaged to ensure adequate security arrangements before and during elections.
According to him, the Police Force remains the lead agency for election security and should coordinate the deployment of other security agencies.
“The Commission must map the country using its Risk Management Tool (ERM) and Election Violence Mitigation and Advocacy Tool (EVMAT) to help security agencies deploy effectively in risk-prone areas,” he said.
Warning that insecurity could discourage citizens from participating in the electoral process, Okoye said: “Nigerians will disengage from the electoral process if the electoral environment is too toxic. Elections should be a festival of democracy, not a dance of death.”
On the situation of internally displaced persons (IDPs), he said Section 24 of the Electoral Act provides for measures to prevent people displaced by emergencies from being disenfranchised, as far as practicable.
He added that INEC already had a framework for voting by IDPs, which should be effectively implemented where necessary.
The former INEC spokesperson also insisted that conducting a successful election required the cooperation of political parties, security agencies and other stakeholders.
“Conducting and delivering a successful election is a multi-stakeholder effort. No single entity, including the Commission, can deliver a successful election without the input, cooperation, and understanding of political parties and security agencies.
“The Commission does not use violence or train and employ political thugs. It does not create a toxic electoral environment. Political parties in Nigeria do not seem to learn from history, in which violence and electoral malfeasance collapsed previous democratic regimes,” he said.
Okoye further advocated the establishment of a Political Parties Regulation and Electoral Offences Commission to regulate political parties and investigate, arrest and prosecute electoral offenders.
He said INEC itself must remain transparent, courageous and politically neutral in the discharge of its responsibilities, treating all parties and competing interests equally.
‘Culture of impunity laying foundation for chaos’
Rev. Fr. Atta Barkindo, Executive Director of The Kukah Centre, expressed concern that repeated violations of the peace accord, Electoral Act and Constitution by political actors could lay the foundation for chaos ahead of the elections.
He said the National Peace Committee (NPC) was particularly worried about the apparent absence of consequences for political actors who disregard agreed rules and democratic conventions.
“First, Nigerians are seeing for themselves the attitude of politicians, parties, and party spokespersons. The NPC is very concerned that the ongoing violations of the peace accord, the Electoral Act and even the Constitution is laying the foundation for chaos,” he said.
“It is even more concerning that the culture of impunity is deepening in all ramifications without consequences,” he added.
Barkindo said the committee was preparing to engage relevant stakeholders and urge them to exercise restraint and comply with the rules governing political activities.
However, he stressed that the committee’s influence was largely moral and that the responsibility for enforcing the law rested with institutions constitutionally empowered and funded by taxpayers.
“The NPC can only deploy its moral voice. It is beholden on those whose responsibility is backed up by the Constitution and paid by taxpayers to live up to their responsibilities,” he said.
He urged politicians to resist the temptation to pursue electoral victory at all costs, warning that the country’s stability should not be sacrificed for individual political ambitions.
“The politicians should not be blinded by the unbridled desire to win at all cost at the detriment of the country,” he said.
The problem, therefore, extends beyond the physical security of polling centres. Voters also need reliable information to make informed decisions and participate meaningfully in the electoral process.
Vanguard Newspaper
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