• Says economy needs sustained growth above 6–7% annually
•Calls for shift to manufacturing, agro-processing
•Doubts achievement of Tinubu’s $1 trillion economy target by 2030
Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja
Agora Policy, a Nigerian think tank has warned that Nigeria’s 4.4 per cent economic growth in the second quarter of 2026 is not sufficient to significantly reduce poverty or create enough jobs for the country’s rapidly expanding population.
In a new policy analysis, the organisation said although the latest growth rate was the highest recorded since the second quarter of 2021, it remained too weak to deliver broad-based improvements in living standards, particularly as Nigeria’s population is expanding by an estimated 2–3 per cent annually.
In the memo titled: “Translating Nigeria’s GDP Growth to Improved Living Standards,” Agora Policy said the country needed to move beyond simply pursuing higher headline GDP figures and focus on the quality and composition of economic growth.
The Waziri Adio-led group argued that Nigeria needed sustained annual economic growth of above 6–7 per cent over the medium term, supported by sectors capable of generating large numbers of productive jobs and raising household incomes.
The analysis noted that recent reforms under President Tinubu had produced some macroeconomic gains, including improved GDP growth, government revenue and external reserves, but these had occurred alongside rising poverty and a high cost of living.
According to the organisation, World Bank estimates showed that Nigeria’s poverty rate under the national poverty line rose from 56 per cent in 2023 to 61 per cent in 2024 and was estimated at 63 per cent in 2025, implying that roughly 140 million Nigerians were living below the national poverty line last year.
Agora also noted that Nigeria’s GDP growth had weakened substantially over the past two decades. Between 2015 and 2025, the economy, it said, recorded an average compound annual growth rate of 2.4 per cent, compared with 6.8 per cent between 2004 and 2014.
It said the experience demonstrated that economic growth driven largely by commodities and capital-intensive sectors did not automatically translate into widespread job creation or higher living standards.
“Growth must become more labour-absorbing, more productive, and more inclusive,” the organisation stated, arguing that a growth rate of 3–4 per cent might help maintain macroeconomic stability but would be inadequate to significantly reduce poverty or absorb the millions of young Nigerians entering the labour market each year.
Agora said one of the major weaknesses of Nigeria’s current growth structure was its heavy reliance on services, which account for about 96 per cent of non-oil growth.
While sectors such as telecommunications, finance, insurance and information technology have continued to expand, the organisation said many were relatively capital-intensive and required specialised skills, limiting their capacity to absorb Nigeria’s large pool of low and middle-skilled workers.
It therefore called for greater emphasis on light manufacturing, garment and textile production, agro-processing, construction and infrastructure development, describing them as sectors capable of creating employment across different skill levels.
The organisation said manufacturing remained particularly important to Nigeria’s long-term economic transformation but continued to face major constraints, including unreliable electricity, high energy costs, limited access to affordable credit, foreign exchange challenges and inadequate transport infrastructure.
Agora recommended the establishment of targeted industrial and manufacturing zones with reliable electricity, transport infrastructure and streamlined regulations to support sectors including textiles, food processing, pharmaceuticals, building materials, consumer goods and light assembly.
It also identified agriculture as another major avenue for inclusive growth, recalling that the sector grew by 4.39 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, up from 2.82 per cent in the same period of 2025.
Agriculture, according to the report, accounts for about 26 per cent of Nigeria’s real GDP and provides livelihoods directly or indirectly for between 30 and 60 per cent of workers.
However, Agora said the priority should not simply be to increase agricultural production but to raise productivity and develop value chains capable of converting raw agricultural commodities into finished and semi-finished products.
It urged federal and state governments to invest in storage, cold-chain facilities, transportation, agro-processing and market access while strengthening agricultural research and development.
The organisation also highlighted the importance of reliable electricity and gas supply to industrialisation, saying Nigeria’s manufacturing ambitions could not be realised without addressing the country’s power and energy deficit.
Drawing lessons from China, Indonesia and Vietnam, Agora said successful economic transformation had generally been driven by agricultural productivity, industrialisation, export competitiveness and labour-intensive manufacturing rather than services alone.
It said Nigeria’s long-term objective should therefore be to create an economy in which manufacturing, agriculture, infrastructure, energy and services reinforce one another.
While acknowledging that the federal government’s ambition to build a $1 trillion economy by 2030 was positive, Agora said achieving the target would require annual dollar-denominated growth of at least 20 per cent over the next four years, a pace it considered unrealistic.
The organisation maintained that the more important objective was to build an economy capable of creating productive and high-paying jobs, increasing household incomes and reducing poverty.
“The real measure of success in terms of human development is not whether GDP grows by a few percentage points in any given year,” it said, but whether growth translates into “productive and high-paying jobs at scale, stronger businesses, higher household incomes, lower poverty and inequality, and a tangible improvement in the quality of life of ordinary Nigerians.”