Gov. Abba Yusuf banks on incumbency and federal backing, Aminu Gwarzo leans on Kwankwasiyya loyalty, while Ibrahim Little seeks to emerge as the third force in a state where political allegiances are constantly shifting, writes Ahmad Sorondinki
As the 2027 general election approaches, the battle for Kano State’s Government House is gathering momentum, with political alignments and realignments setting the stage for what could become one of the most fiercely contested governorship elections in the state since 1999.
Although 17 political parties are expected to participate in the race, three major contenders have emerged at the centre of the political conversation: Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), his former deputy, Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo of the Nigeria Democratic Party (NDC), and grassroots politician, Ibrahim Little of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
The contest promises to test incumbency against political loyalty, federal influence against opposition tradition, and established political structures against emerging coalitions.
The three candidates have become prominent subjects of political discussion across Kano’s 44 local government areas, reflecting the intensity of the contest and the competing interests shaping the state’s political landscape.
Beyond the individual candidates, the election is increasingly being viewed as a proxy battle involving some of Nigeria’s most influential political figures. Yusuf is banking on the support of President Bola Tinubu and the APC establishment, while Gwarzo is relying on his relationship with Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso and the enduring influence of the Kwankwasiyya movement. Little, on his part, is positioning himself within the ADC coalition and is associated with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
Kano, the commercial nerve centre of northern Nigeria and home of the late political icon, Mallam Aminu Kano, has a long history of political alignments and realignments. Its politics have traditionally been shaped by competing ideological tendencies, particularly the divide between the political establishment and movements that draw their strength from the masses.
This history makes the 2027 contest particularly interesting. It is not simply a battle between an incumbent governor and two challengers. It is also a struggle over the political legacy of Kwankwaso, the influence of former Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and the future of the political structures they have built over the years.
The relationship between Kwankwaso and Ganduje, once political allies, deteriorated after they went their separate ways in 2015. Their rivalry has since become one of the defining features of Kano politics. Yusuf’s emergence in the APC, after years of association with Kwankwaso and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), has further complicated the political equation.
Abba Kabir Yusuf – APC
Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf enters the race with the most obvious advantage as the incumbent. As Governor, he has access to the structures and influence that come with occupying the state’s highest political office. His membership of the APC, which controls the federal government, also gives him access to the party’s national machinery and the support of influential political figures.
His political strength is reinforced by the backing of three former Governors: the immediate past APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje; Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, and Kabiru Ibrahim Gaya. The three senators representing Kano State are also said to be supporting him, including Deputy President of the Senate, Barau Jibrin. Several federal appointees from the State are also aligned with the Governor. Members of the National Assembly and the Kano State House of Assembly are similarly positioned within his political camp.
This formidable political backing could provide Yusuf with an extensive campaign structure, access to influential networks and the financial and organisational resources required to prosecute a statewide election. His control of the state government and its political structures, including the influence of local government administrations, may further strengthen his position.
Yusuf also has the advantage of being from Kano Central, which accounts for a significant proportion of the State’s voters. His Deputy, Murtala Sule Garo, comes from Kano North, the same senatorial zone as Gwarzo, and is regarded as a politician with considerable grassroots appeal and mobilisation capacity. His political relationships and reputation for generosity could help the governor consolidate support across the zone. The governor’s personal political history also gives him an established connection with the Kwankwasiyya political structure. A former commissioner and engineer who spent decades in the state civil service, Yusuf was appointed personal assistant to Kwankwaso in 1999. His rise through the movement eventually culminated in his election as governor in 2023.
However, his greatest political liability may be his defection from the NNPP to the APC and his separation from his long-time political benefactor, Kwankwaso. To many core Kwankwasiyya supporters, the move represents a betrayal of the movement that brought him to power. In a state where political loyalty and personal relationships carry considerable weight, this perception could undermine his support among voters who remain committed to Kwankwaso.
There is also the question of Kano’s historical opposition tradition. Since the days of the late Aminu Kano, a significant section of the electorate has often identified with opposition movements as a means of challenging the political establishment. By joining the ruling party at the centre, Yusuf may find himself confronting a political sentiment that has historically favoured resistance to the federal establishment.
Another potential weakness is the dissatisfaction among some old APC members who may feel inadequately accommodated in his administration, particularly in appointments and the distribution of political opportunities. If not addressed, such grievances could create divisions within the party and affect the cohesion of his campaign.
Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo – NDC
For Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo, the 2027 election presents an opportunity to convert his political experience, grassroots network and association with Kwankwaso into a formidable challenge to the incumbent. Gwarzo is no political newcomer. He has served three times as chairman of Gwarzo Local Government Area, worked as a labour leader, served as a federal commissioner and held commissioner portfolios three times in Kano State. His years in public service and grassroots politics have helped him build a network of political associates across the state.
His decision to remain with Kwankwaso and the Kwankwasiyya movement, rather than follow Yusuf into the APC, is central to his political appeal. For supporters who consider the Governor’s defection a betrayal, Gwarzo represents continuity with the political movement that produced the current administration.
His resignation as Deputy Governor, following threats by members of the Kano State House of Assembly to initiate impeachment proceedings against him, may also generate sympathy among sections of the electorate. Some voters could interpret his decision to leave office rather than engage in a prolonged political confrontation as a demonstration of composure and political principle.
Gwarzo’s reputation for humility, loyalty and comradeship could further strengthen his appeal, particularly among grassroots supporters. He also has a considerable network of friends and political associates in Kano Central, where his long-standing relationships dating back to the 1990s have earned him recognition beyond his home local government.
Another important pillar of his campaign could be the Kwankwasiyya network, including scholars and supporters within educational institutions in Kano and neighbouring states. The movement’s established organisational structures could provide a mobilisation platform, particularly among young people and voters who remain loyal to Kwankwaso.
His running mate, Mustapha Rabiu Kwankwaso, a former commissioner for youth development and industrialist, is also expected to contribute to the campaign’s youth mobilisation efforts. His business and political networks across the 44 local government areas could strengthen Gwarzo’s outreach.
The former Deputy Governor may also benefit from the political appeal of the opposition coalition and the support of voters who identify with Peter Obi’s political movement. If the NDC’s national coalition attracts a significant proportion of such voters, Gwarzo could benefit from additional support beyond the traditional Kwankwasiyya base.
His perceived neutrality in the Kano Emirate crisis may also be an advantage, particularly among voters who would prefer a candidate less entangled in the dispute. Similarly, his emphasis on insecurity, poverty and the economic difficulties confronting ordinary Nigerians could resonate with voters in northern Kano and other communities affected by these challenges.
However, Gwarzo faces considerable structural disadvantages. Unlike Yusuf, he does not have the support of a large number of serving political office holders and elected representatives in the state and at the federal level. Many influential politicians, commissioners, federal appointees, senators and members of the House of Representatives from Kano are aligned with the governor.
This leaves his campaign heavily dependent on loyalists, volunteers and the existing Kwankwasiyya structure. While grassroots support can be powerful, converting it into an effective statewide electoral machine requires funding, coordination and access to logistics.
Ibrahim Little – ADC
Ibrahim Little represents a different political proposition in the Kano governorship contest. While Yusuf and Gwarzo are closely associated with the long-running political rivalry between Ganduje and Kwankwaso, Little is seeking to position himself as an alternative for voters weary of the state’s entrenched political divisions. A grassroots politician with an extensive network of business and political associates within and outside Kano, Little is regarded by supporters as a humble and generous figure who has maintained relationships across different political camps.
His political history dates back more than two decades. He is remembered for defeating former Governor Shekarau during a party primary election in 2002, although Shekarau subsequently secured victory through the courts. The episode remains part of Little’s political credentials and reinforces his claim to a long-standing presence in Kano’s political landscape.Over the years, he has cultivated relationships with grassroots politicians across the 44 local government areas, as well as youth and football groups. These networks could provide an important mobilisation advantage, particularly among young voters and communities that feel disconnected from the established political elite.
His emergence on the ADC platform also places him within a wider national coalition attracting politicians from different political parties, including former members of the PDP and APC. The involvement of prominent national figures, including Atiku Abubakar, could give his candidacy additional visibility and political relevance.
Little’s strongest selling point may be his attempt to present himself as a candidate outside the traditional Kwankwasiyya-Gandujiyya rivalry. For voters tired of the prolonged political feud, he could offer an alternative that places greater emphasis on grassroots representation, political inclusion and a different style of leadership.
His long-standing participation in governorship politics may also appeal to supporters who regard his persistence as evidence of commitment. Unlike candidates whose political relevance is closely tied to powerful godfathers, Little could market himself as a politician who has maintained his ambition and grassroots relationships over the years.
He is also reported to be the only one among the three contenders to have embarked on an extensive campaign tour of local government areas at the time of filing this report. If sustained, such direct engagement could help him build name recognition and strengthen his connection with voters.
However, the ADC still faces the challenge of matching the organisational strength of the APC and the established Kwankwasiyya network. Little also lacks the kind of influential political godfather and institutional backing that could provide the resources needed for a statewide campaign. His success will depend on whether he can translate his personal political network into a cohesive party structure, attract influential defectors and persuade voters that he represents a credible alternative rather than simply another candidate in an already crowded contest.
A Contest Beyond Three Candidates
Ultimately, the 2027 governorship election in Kano will be about much more than the ambitions of three politicians. It will test political loyalty, the strength of established movements, the influence of federal power and the electorate’s appetite for a new direction. The outcome of the election may also depend on how the candidates address issues that directly affect ordinary residents. These include poverty, unemployment, insecurity, education, healthcare and the cost of living. The battle for Government House has begun. But in a state where political loyalties can shift and established calculations can be overturned, the final verdict rests with the people of Kano.