China’s exports grew at a slower pace last month after starting the year with a surge, official data showed Tuesday, as the global economy reels from war in the Middle East.
The world’s second-largest economy produced a record-breaking trade surplus last year of $1.2 trillion.
Booming overseas shipments appeared set to continue this year after jumping by more than a fifth in January and February combined.
However, China’s exports grew just 2.5 per cent on-year in March, according to data published Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs (GAC).
The slowdown was more pronounced than expected, with a Bloomberg survey of economists forecasting 8.6 per cent growth.
Exports to the United States also plunged last month, hit by blistering tariffs launched by President Donald Trump.
Shipments to the United States tumbled 26.5 per cent on-year to $29.4 billion in March, the customs data showed.
In a more positive sign, imports soared 27.8 per cent, according to the figures. That was higher than a forecast of 14 per cent growth by Bloomberg.
The readings come at an uncertain time for international trade, with energy costs skyrocketing as a result of war between the United States and Iran.
Analysts say China’s diversified energy supply insulates it from immediate shocks, though any global economic downturn would weaken demand for its exports.
GAC deputy head Wang Jun acknowledged “many uncertainties and instabilities in the external environment”, at a news conference Tuesday.
“The impact of international geopolitical conflicts on global industrial and supply chains is still evolving in a complex manner,” Wang said.
Slowing Growth
Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, added that “growth to major export destinations slowed across the board”.
“The uncertainty of global macro outlook driven by the conflict in the Middle East likely weighed on the demand side,” he wrote in a note.
Meanwhile, China’s surge in import figures last month was the result of higher energy costs, Zhang said.
“I think China’s trade surplus will likely shrink this year,” he said, adding that “the high energy price is likely more damaging for China’s competitors, given the scale and the efficiency of China’s manufacturing sector.”
Beijing is due to release closely watched economic growth data for the first quarter of the year on Thursday.
Leaders are targeting overall growth this year of 4.5-5.0 per cent — the lowest in decades.
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Analysts expect China’s economy to have expanded at 4.8 per cent in the first quarter, up from 4.5 per cent in the final three months of 2025, according to the median forecast of an AFP survey.
Many economists argue that China must adopt a growth model with a greater role for consumer spending rather than traditional drivers, including exports and infrastructure investment.
A years-long crisis in the property sector, once a crucial engine for activity, has weighed on growth and spooked consumers.
AFP
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