Says unexplained reversals in import policy increase uncertainty
Dike Onwuamaeze
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has raised concern over the surge in importation of petrol by 234 per cent within three months, from 5.9 million litres in May 2026 to 19.7 million litres in July 2026.
The CPPE said that available data from Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that average petrol import increased from 5.9 million litres per day in May 2026 to 18.1 million litres per day in June, which is a 206.8 per cent increase while the figures rose further to 19.7 million litres per day in July.
It highlighted that while import was rising the market share of domestic refineries declined from 41.5 per cent in May 2026 to 32.5 per cent in June 2026 and further 25.8 per cent in July 2026 whereas the market share of imported petrol rose from 12.4 per cent in May to 43.3 per cent of July 2026.
According to CPPE, imports should close gaps and not create displacement of domestic refineries because a deregulated market does not imply regulatory indifference to the structure of supply.
The centre said that refining is a strategic anchor industry that provides fuels and feed stocks for petrochemicals, plastics, fertiliser, pharmaceuticals, paints, packaging and other manufacturing chains and warned that any policy that displaces viable domestic refining output will contradict Nigeria’s ambition to deepen industrial capacity.
Speaking in a policy brief on: “Rising Petroleum-Product Imports and the Future of Domestic Refining,” the Chief Executive of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said that the centre’s concern is not with imports required to close a genuine and independently verified domestic shortfall a legitimate contingency tool for refinery outages, seasonal demand spikes, quality gaps and strategic-stock replenishment.
Yusuf said that the CPPE’s policy concern arises where import permits are issued without a transparent demonstration that domestic refiners cannot meet the relevant demand at acceptable standards and competitive market terms.
He said: “CPPE believes that petroleum-product imports should function as a transparent supply-gap instrument and not as a parallel market that displaces adequate domestic production.
“Where local refiners can supply products of acceptable quality, quantity and competitive market price, indiscriminate import licensing weakens investment, jobs, foreign-exchange conservation, industrialisation and national energy security.”
He added that Nigeria has reached a point where downstream policy must shift decisively from managing chronic import dependence to building a competitive domestic refining ecosystem.
“Allowing imports without a transparent, verified shortfall would squander an historic opportunity to conserve foreign exchange, create jobs, deepen industrial linkages and strengthen energy security.
“The required policy is a rules-based regime in which efficient domestic production receives a fair opportunity to serve the Nigerian market, imports close only demonstrable gaps, consumers remain protected and competition is preserved.
“The credibility of Nigeria’s industrialisation agenda will be judged partly by whether regulators align their day-to-day decisions with these national objectives,” Yusuf explained.
The CPPE stressed that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) Sections 317(8) and (9) contemplate petroleum-product import licensing in the context of a domestic supply shortfall and cautioned that regulatory discretion should, therefore, be exercised transparently, predictably and consistently with the country’s domestic-refining and industrialisation objectives.
The CPPE also urged the NMDPRA to publish a product-by-product supply gap determination before approving material import volumes; give qualified domestic refiners a fair opportunity to meet verified demand; restrict import permits to the quantified residual gap and a defined validity period; and publish monthly permit, landing and domestic-evacuation data.
It said that this is not a call for monopoly or blanket protection but a call for a systematic, rules-based regulation that makes competition fair, protects consumers and supports domestic productive capacity.
“Without this information, the market cannot determine whether permits address a real shortfall or merely expand import competition against available domestic output,” CPPE said.
Yusuf noted that the import surge occurred alongside evidence of substantial domestic refining capability.
According to him, Dangote Refinery reported a test run above 700,000 barrels per day in June, while NMDPRA had reported domestic refineries operating at 99.12 per cent average capacity utilisation in April.
Yusuf said that the regulator must reconcile consumer protection and supply security with the PIA’s domestic-supply framework, adding that where domestic supply is genuinely adequate, import permits can suppress refinery offtake, weaken utilisation rates and transfer demand, income and employment abroad.
He argued that the NMDPRA’s mandate requires more than licensing and supply monitoring, explaining that it should create predictable rules that encourage investment across refining, storage, pipelines, marine logistics and distribution.
“Frequent or unexplained reversals in import policy increase uncertainty and raise the risk premium on downstream investment,” he argued.