*Move will have impact in Taraba, Adamawa, Benue, Plateau, Kaduna, other
*Christians in identified places still angry over killings
Olawale Olaleye
Weekend’s endorsement of President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid by a former Minister of Defence, General Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma, has introduced a potentially consequential dimension to the battle for the Christian Middle Belt and parts of the North-East.
But with memories of unceasing killings, displacement and insecurity still fresh and ongoing in several communities, the question is whether the elder statesman’s considerable influence can translate into votes in 2027.
The decision by Danjuma, to openly endorse President Tinubu for a second term, has introduced a new variable into the unfolding political contest in northern Nigeria, particularly in the North-Central and parts of the North-East, where the retired general commands considerable respect and admiration.
According to sources, Danjuma’s position was hinged on the fact that since the north under former Nigerian leader, Muhammadu Buhari, served for two terms of eight years, it’s only fair that the south, currently represented by APC’s Bola Tinubu, should also serve out two terms of eight years. This he is said to believe will promote unity and national cohesion.
It is worth noting that for several years now, Danjuma has been a major financier of Christian causes in the North. In 2019, he helped to a large extent to sway Christian support to late President Muhammadu Buhari’s reelection.
So, he is a man of considerable means and stature amongst the Christian community in the North East and North Central.
However, coming barely ten weeks before the January 16, 2027 presidential election, the endorsement is significant not simply because of Danjuma’s stature as a former Chief of Army Staff, defence minister and influential member of Nigeria’s political establishment, but because of the constituencies in which his intervention could carry weight.
From Taraba, his home state, to Adamawa, Plateau, Benue and parts of Kaduna, Danjuma remains a recognised voice among sections of the Middle Belt’s political, traditional and Christian leadership.
His endorsement, therefore, presents Tinubu with an opportunity to broaden his political coalition in territories where the president’s Muslim-Muslim ticket encountered resistance in 2023 and where continuing insecurity has complicated relations between the federal government and affected communities.
Yet, the development has also thrown up an uncomfortable question: Can the endorsement of one of the region’s most influential figures sufficiently assuage the anger of communities still grappling with killings, displacement and the destruction of their livelihoods?
That question may ultimately determine whether Danjuma’s intervention becomes a genuine electoral game changer or remains an important, but limited, political endorsement.
How the Endorsement Unfolded
Danjuma’s position became clearer over the weekend when, at the 20th anniversary celebration of the Adamawa State Government House Chapel in Yola, he appealed for support for Tinubu’s re-election rather than that of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Represented by a former Chief of Army Staff, General Ishaya Bamaiyi, Danjuma argued that the Tinubu administration had demonstrated a measure of inclusiveness through the appointment of Christians into important government positions, notwithstanding the controversy that attended APC’s Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket in 2023.
He also announced a donation of N250 million towards the expansion of the Government House Chapel and the provision of residential accommodation for its chaplain and deputy chaplain.
The declaration followed his participation in a high-powered delegation that met Tinubu at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, on Thursday, November 5.
The delegation included Plateau State Governor, Caleb Mutfwang; Taraba State Governor, Agbu Kefas; former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara; Minister of Defence, Christopher Musa; and APC National Chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda.
After the meeting, Dogara explained that the delegation had come to demonstrate solidarity with the president and discuss political cooperation, security and support mobilisation ahead of the election.
The sequence of events suggested that Danjuma’s public endorsement was more than a ceremonial expression of goodwill. It represented an unmistakable entry into the political conversation at a moment when the APC was attempting to consolidate its expanding northern coalition.
Why Danjuma’s Intervention Matters
Danjuma’s influence is not easily measured by the conventional instruments of electoral politics. He does not command a mass political party, nor is he known for the kind of routine electioneering associated with career politicians.
His strength derives principally from his standing in the military establishment, his longstanding relationships with northern political leaders, his philanthropic activities and the considerable respect he commands among sections of the Middle Belt.
He is also associated with a tradition of outspoken interventions on security, particularly the failure of government institutions to protect vulnerable communities.
This history makes his endorsement of Tinubu especially noteworthy. It gives the president a potentially credible intermediary in communities where the assurances of conventional politicians may carry less weight.
But such influence cannot also be confused with automatic electoral control. The Middle Belt is too politically diverse, and its grievances deeply rooted, for the endorsement of any individual to guarantee a wholesale transfer of votes.
The electoral figures from 2023 explain both the opportunity and the limitations.
What the 2023 Results Reveal
In 2023, the North-Central provided Tinubu with 1,670,091 votes, making the region his second-largest source of northern support after the North-West.
However, that aggregate strength concealed considerable resistance in some states with significant Christian populations.
In Plateau, Peter Obi of the Labour Party polled 466,272 votes, defeating Tinubu, who received 307,195 votes. Atiku secured 243,808. Obi’s advantage over Tinubu was 159,077 votes.
The outcome demonstrated that Plateau, despite the presence of an established APC organisation, was far from a secure presidential constituency for the ruling party.
In Benue, Tinubu managed a remarkably narrow victory, securing 310,468 votes against Obi’s 308,372, a difference of only 2,096 votes. Atiku finished with 130,081 votes.
The result was particularly instructive because Benue had already experienced serious security challenges and political disagreements over the protection of farming communities.
Nasarawa was another striking example. Obi won the state with 191,361 votes, ahead of Tinubu’s 172,922 and Atiku’s 147,093. The margin separating Obi and Tinubu was 18,439 votes.
Taken together, Plateau, Benue and Nasarawa demonstrated the existence of a substantial electoral constituency that was not persuaded by Tinubu’s candidacy in 2023, even though the APC maintained significant political structures across the region.
The North-Central contest is consequently not simply about winning new voters. It is also about understanding the concerns that influenced the choices of existing voters and whether those considerations have changed sufficiently since 2023.
Taraba: Danjuma’s Immediate Test
Taraba offers perhaps the most direct opportunity to assess the practical significance of Danjuma’s endorsement. Although geographically situated in the North-East, the state maintains deep political, ethnic and cultural connections with the Middle Belt.
In the 2023 presidential election, Atiku won Taraba with 189,017 votes. Obi came second with 146,315 votes, while Tinubu finished third with 135,165.
The distribution was revealing. Tinubu trailed Atiku by 53,852 votes, but the combined opposition vote was substantially larger than his tally.
Danjuma’s influence within sections of Taraba’s political establishment could help the APC consolidate support that was divided between the PDP and Labour Party in the previous election.
The political environment has also changed.
Governor Agbu Kefas, who was elected on the PDP platform in 2023, defected to the APC in December 2025. His presence in the ruling party gives Tinubu an incumbency advantage that was absent during the previous presidential contest.
A combination of Kefas’s administrative and political network and Danjuma’s influence could improve the president’s competitiveness.
Nevertheless, Taraba’s political divisions run deeper than party labels. Communities have different historical loyalties, and the former PDP electorate cannot automatically be assumed to have followed the governor into the APC.
Atiku retains a recognised political constituency, while Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), offers another option to voters, who supported him in 2023.
Taraba is therefore a genuine opportunity for Tinubu, but not yet a state that can safely be classified as an APC presidential stronghold.
Adamawa: Challenging Atiku on Home Ground
The significance of Danjuma’s declaration in Adamawa is equally compelling. Adamawa is Atiku’s home state and one of his most dependable electoral bases.
In 2023, Atiku obtained 417,611 votes, against Tinubu’s 182,881 and Obi’s 105,648. The former vice-president defeated Tinubu by 234,730 votes, one of the APC candidate’s most substantial deficits in northern Nigeria.
Danjuma’s decision to make an explicit appeal for Tinubu at a Christian gathering in Yola could introduce fresh debate within some of the state’s political and religious constituencies.
However, Adamawa cannot be reduced to its religious composition. Atiku has cultivated political relationships across the state for decades, while the influence of Governor Ahmadu Fintiri and competing local political structures add further complexity.
Even a considerable improvement in Tinubu’s performance among voters sympathetic to Danjuma would not necessarily erase Atiku’s 2023 advantage.
For Tinubu, a realistic political gain might be a reduction in the margin of defeat rather than an outright victory.
In a national election decided by relatively narrow margins, however, reducing a deficit can be almost as important as winning a state.
Plateau, Benue and Kaduna: The Security Burden
The more difficult challenge lies in communities where security concerns have become inseparable from political judgment.
In Plateau, particularly in areas affected by repeated attacks and communal violence, the issue is not merely whether the federal government has appointed prominent Christians to office.
For families that have lost relatives, farmland and homes, the more pressing questions concern physical protection, the prevention of further attacks, justice for victims and the ability of displaced people to return safely.
The June 2025 attack on Yelewata in Benue, where more than 100 people were reported killed, and other deadly attacks in Plateau have reinforced the seriousness of those concerns.
Amnesty International reported that violence had displaced more than 510,000 people across Benue by mid-2025, illustrating the extraordinary human consequences of the crisis.
The violence has multiple dimensions, including land disputes, competition over resources, criminality and failures of security enforcement. Nevertheless, the religious identities of many victims and some of the communities involved have made the issue particularly sensitive.
In Benue, Governor Hyacinth Alia’s APC membership offers Tinubu a political advantage, but the party’s narrow presidential victory in 2023 demonstrates how easily the electoral balance could shift.
In Plateau, Governor Caleb Mutfwang’s defection from the PDP to the APC in January 2026, alongside the influence of APC National Chairman, Yilwatda, has considerably strengthened the ruling party’s formal political position.
Yet Mutfwang’s membership of the APC does not automatically settle the preferences of the 466,272 voters who supported Obi in 2023.
Kaduna presents its own dimension. Atiku won Kaduna in 2023 with 554,360 votes, against Tinubu’s 399,293. Obi secured 294,494 votes, reflecting a substantial third-force presence in a politically divided state.
Southern Kaduna, where concerns about insecurity, communal relations and representation remain politically consequential, presents a particular test of the APC ability to rebuild trust.
Governor Uba Sani’s administration, his reconciliation efforts and Danjuma’s endorsement may however strengthen the ruling party’s political arguments. But voters’ assessments of safety and the government’s performance will remain important.
In Gombe, another North-East state with communities maintaining strong cultural connections to the Middle Belt, Atiku’s overwhelming 2023 victory presents a different challenge.
Atiku secured 319,123 votes, compared with Tinubu’s 146,977 and Obi’s 26,160. The president will require a significant political realignment to become competitive there.
The Muslim-Muslim Ticket and the Question of Representation
One of the more intriguing aspects of Danjuma’s endorsement is his argument that Tinubu’s appointments demonstrate greater inclusiveness than the controversy surrounding the 2023 ticket might have suggested.
The president and Vice-President Kashim Shettima were elected on a Muslim-Muslim ticket, a decision that generated considerable opposition among Christian organisations and political leaders.
Danjuma’s intervention introduces a distinction between the religious composition of an electoral ticket and the actual distribution of responsibility within government.
For the APC, that is an important argument. But it is also an argument that must withstand examination.
Political appointments may offer evidence of representation, but representation cannot substitute for security, effective governance or measurable improvements in living conditions.
Indeed, the principal danger for the ruling party would be to interpret the endorsement as evidence that the grievances of Christian communities have been resolved.
They have not necessarily been resolved, and the persistence of violence in some affected areas means that the government’s record will continue to face scrutiny.
What Changes in the 2027 Equation?
Three factors make the electoral situation considerably different from 2023.
First, the APC has attracted important governors and political leaders, who were previously aligned with the opposition. This has strengthened its organisational reach in states such as Plateau and Taraba.
Second, Danjuma’s endorsement brings an influential voice into the conversation at a time when the ruling party is seeking to address doubts about its acceptance in parts of the Christian Middle Belt.
Third, the opposition vote may be distributed differently in 2027.
Atiku is contesting on the ADC platform with former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi as his running mate, while Obi is running with former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso on the NDC ticket.
This arrangement means that the constituencies which supported Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso in 2023 will again face competing appeals.
The consequences are far from straightforward. If Danjuma’s endorsement helps Tinubu attract a portion of former Obi supporters in Plateau, Benue or Nasarawa, it could reduce the opposition’s advantage.
Conversely, if the anger over insecurity remains intense, the same voters could retain their allegiance to Obi or consider another opposition candidate.
Atiku may also benefit where economic hardship and insecurity have created broader dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration.
There is no credible basis for assuming that all Christian voters will respond uniformly to Danjuma’s position, just as there is no guarantee that every voter who backed Obi in 2023 will do so again.
The Limits of Political Endorsement
Ultimately, Danjuma’s intervention is going to have a significant boost for Tinubu’s electoral fortune in the 2027.
Its potential is largely in helping the APC cross political and social boundaries that proved difficult in 2023.
Its limitation is that the concerns of affected communities are rooted in lived experience rather than merely in political endorsements.
For the president, the most persuasive evidence of progress will not come from the number of prominent personalities joining his campaign, but from whether citizens believe their communities are safer, their livelihoods more secure and their grievances adequately addressed.
Danjuma has made his political choice known. His considerable reputation could influence discussions among political elites and sections of the electorate in Taraba, Adamawa, Plateau, Benue, Kaduna and beyond.
But the election itself will establish how much of that influence translates into electoral support.
In that sense, Danjuma’s endorsement could change the political conversation across the Middle Belt. Whether it changes the voting figures will depend on the government’s performance, the opposition’s response and, above all, the judgment of voters, whose concerns cannot simply be wished away.