To understand whether Karamoja is facing climate change or climate variability, it is helpful to reflect on insights from Professor Oweyegha-Afunaduula. In his work on environmental security, he argues that “the 21st century presents humanity with an unprecedented crisis of climate disruption.” Karamoja, a sub region of Uganda, is undoubtedly experiencing a climate crisis. The critical question, however, is: what kind of climate crisis is it?
As the Department for Critical Thinking and Alternative Analysis at the Karamoja Anti Corruption Coalition, we have observed that aid agencies, NGOs, development partners, and government technocrats predominantly frame Karamoja’s environmental challenges as a problem of climate change, with far less attention given to climate variability. This raises an important question: if these actors are responding to the climate crisis in Karamoja, what exactly are they responding to—climate change or climate variability?
Some may assume that the two terms are interchangeable, but they are not; confusing them has significant implications for policy and programming.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change refers to a long term, structural shift in the state of the climate that persists over decades or longer, whereas climate variability describes short and medium term fluctuations, such as extreme dry spells or erratic rainfall, occurring around that underlying baseline.
This crucial distinction brings us back to our central question: Is Karamoja primarily experiencing climate change or climate variability?
We raise this question because Karamoja has endured repeated crop failures, livestock losses, and chronic food insecurity for decades. According to Dr. Damalie Akwango’s 2017 PhD research, the region has experienced climate related crises since the 1920s and persistent food insecurity since 1964. More than half a century later, many households continue to struggle with chronic food deficits despite substantial investments by governments, humanitarian agencies, and development partners.
This brings us to a difficult but necessary question: Could it be that many interventions have produced limited long term results because they have emphasized climate change while underestimating the region’s long standing climate variability?
Ayub Mukisa, PhD
Executive Director, Karamoja Anti-Corruption Coalition (KACC)
Email: ayubmukisa@gmail.com
The post Dr. Ayub Mukisa: What Exactly Is Happening in Karamoja: Climate Change or Climate Variability? appeared first on Watchdog Uganda.