Abdulmumin Jibrin Kofa, Economic Diversification and Structural Transformation in Nigeria: Past. Present. Future. Kano: Century Professional Printers and Publishers Ltd., xxxviii + 526 pp.
Reuben Abati
Dr. Abdulmumin Kofa brings to this book, titled Economic Diversification and Structural Transformation in Nigeria: Past. Present. Future. his combined wealth of experience as a scholar, a private sector professional and as a man of practical experience having served in Nigeria’s House of Representatives for four consecutive terms, and in various capacities as Chairman of the House Committees on Finance, Appropriations, Land, Transport, Foreign Affairs and Housing. He offers us a deep, detailed and engaging reflection on Nigeria’s economic trajectory from 1960 to date, the historicity of that trajectory, from the past to the present, with projections about the future. In his foreword to the book, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu says that this work is a “serious contribution to a conversation our country must have.” (p. xi). This serious conversation in question can be phrased as a set of questions: Why is Nigeria, a country that is so blessed, still a land of unfulfilled promises since 1960 when it gained independence? Why is every season of brightness often followed by a period of uncertainty and decline? Why is the country’s development progression not sustained over the years? What was done in the past by successive Nigerian administrations? What was left undone? Where are we at the moment? How did we get here? How do we safeguard the future? Why do policies fail? Why does poverty persist? What lessons can we or should we learn from our own experience and the experiences of other countries? And what should be the responsibility of every Nigerian, individually and collectively, in order to achieve the goal of prosperity for all?
Dr. Kofa is rigorous in his evidence-based analysis, clear in his recommendations, and open in his identification of “if-then” variables as he seeks to provide answers to these and other questions. This book should be of great interest, and provide much instruction and information for students of political economy, policy making, economic history, as well as the general reader interested in the Nigerian question. Published in October 2026, during Nigeria’s lead up to the 2027 general election, the book takes on a topical, contemporaneous tone, as it analyses, and focuses extensively on the Renewed Hope Agenda of the Tinubu administration, which the author describes as a bold, courageous and necessary turning point, an act of “deliberate structural engineering (p. 410) and “a pathway to Nigeria’s economic transformation (p.. 385).” This book is however not a political manual, not a campaign material, not a piece of propaganda, but it is arguably the most detailed interrogation of the Renewed Hope Development Plan, introduced in 2023, yet to be written. The subject is Nigeria. The focus is the past to the present.
The book is 526 pages long, it is richly illustrated with data, figures and tables. It is divided into three parts: Part One titled “The Past” contains a total of 11 Chapters in 208 pages. Part Two: titled “The Present” runs from Chapter Twelve to Chapter 24, that is 13 chapters, while Part Three: “The Future” runs from Chapter 25 – Chapter 29, a total of five chapters. The book ends with an Epilogue on the new opportunity represented by the Nigerian Creative Economy (p. 463), its potentials and possibilities and “why the creative economy matters for diversification”. (p. 464).
The first part of the book examines the antecedents of Nigeria’s economic diversification and structural transformation, noting principally the dangers of the non-diversification of Nigeria’s treasury base over the years as a result of the over-dependence on oil revenue. The discovery of oil changed the story of Nigeria’s economy. For whereas the agriculture sector dominated the Nigerian economy before 1960, the shift to a monocultural economy brought a significant decline in agriculture’s contribution to GDP from about, for example, 48% in 1970 to 26.2 by 2015. The dependence on oil revenue has also made the Nigerian economy dependent on external shocks, vulnerable in the face of the volatility of oil prices, with corresponding effects on economic growth and stability. The neglect of non-oil sectors of the economy can also be seen in the poor performance of the manufacturing sector, the rise in unemployment and a range of untapped potentials. The author’s main argument is that economic diversification is required, but there are gaps in our understanding of both the potentials and challenges of diversifying the Nigerian economy. He reviews the literature in this regard, tries to fill the gap, and reports that successive Nigerian governments over the years have tried to diversify the economy through policy making but this has not necessarily translated into greater efficiency or the needed competitiveness of the Nigerian economy. In Chapter Two, he discusses how economic diversification can result in structural transformation in terms of the economy, revenue diversification, trade diversification, export diversification, market diversification, product diversification, structural transformation. In the following Chapter, the book focuses on the factors that have posed challenges to the diversification of the Nigerian economy despite the good intentions of previous governments namely poor infrastructural facilities, overdependence on federal revenue allocations, corruption, illiteracy and poor educational system, lack of political and sustainability and the ever-present threat of financial indiscipline. But in exploring this further in this part of the book, the author reviews Nigeria’s past efforts at export diversification (pp. 39 – 92) as well as the fluctuations in economic growth.
The reader should find most instructive, the author’s critical review of Nigeria’s Experience in Development Planning, from the First National Development Plan under Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa to the Second National Development Plan (Yakubu Gowon, 1970 -74), the Third National Development Plan (Murtala/Obasanjo, (1975 -1980), The Fourth National Development Plan (Alhaji Shehu Shagari 1981 -1985), the Fifth National Development Plan, leading to the two-year Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) , which ended the five-year development planning model and a two-year model which was replaced by a three-year rolling plan. Kofa reviews the various plans that followed: the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) and the Vision 20: 2020 introduced by the Olusegun Obasanjo administration, 1999 – 2007, President Yar’Adua’s seven-point agenda, (2007 -2010), the complete implementation of which was abbreviated by Yar’’Adua’s “illness and death in office” (p. 122), President Jonathan’s Transformation Agenda (2011 -2015), Buhari’s Three-Point Agenda (2015 -2023) and how the current Renewed Hope Agenda by the Tinubu administration aligns with the Vision 20: 2020 before it. The key questions in each review of what went before in Nigeria’s economic journey and what the author interrogates are as follows: What was planned? What worked? What went wrong? Why did the Plans fall short?
The author explains this baseline relying on three theoretical concepts: the resource curse theory: “the paradox of plenty, a situation where resource rich countries end up experiencing “slower economic growth, less democracy and worse development outcome compared to countries with fewer natural resources” (p. 127) due to the distortion of economic structures and incentives” (p. 128); second, the Dutch disease syndrome, that is the sudden influx of wealth that makes a country vulnerable due to the absence of economic diversification, and then third, the structural change theory which speaks to the need for countries to transform their economic structures to guarantee sustained economic growth. In all, Kofa reviews the existing literature on economic diversification and Nigeria’s Economic Diversification Index (EDI) and observes “weak diversification outcomes” and the fact that Nigeria’s structural transformation remains “incomplete and uneven” (p.199). This first part of the book is brought to a close, in Chapter Eleven with “Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and Recent Economic Reform”namely: the removal of fuel subsidy, the unification of exchange rate, new tax reforms, the main substance of Tinubu’s reform agenda, and the implications for economic diversification and structural transformation. (pp. 200 – 207).
In Part Two, Dr. Kofa focuses on “The Present”: which is Tinubunomics, the Necessity and Relevance of the Renewed Hope Agenda” In the chapters that follow, he essentially discusses Tinubu’s Vision, and the details of the Renewed Hope Plan, the core ideas behind the governing philosophy, the commitment to the Nigerian citizen at the heart of the development agenda. The author’s main argument, backed by the World Bank Development Update (2022), and anchored on the detailed review in the First part of the book is that President Tinubu upon his assumption of office in 2023, met “a country at a crossroads” (p. 212). He therefore writes inter alia that:
“Nigeria entered the 2020s with considerable economic and development potential but also with persistent structural challenges. As the most populous nation in Africa and one of the continent’s largest economies, it holds vast human and natural resources, a sizeable domestic market, a growing entrepreneurial class, and a strategic position within West Africa. Yet these strengths had long existed alongside low productivity, insufficient infrastructure, widespread poverty, weak human capital indicators, insecurity, joblessness, tight fiscal space, and heavy reliance on oil and revenue. In its Nigeria Development Update released just before the 2023 election, the World Bank painted a picture of an economy struggling with sluggish growth, elevated inflation, thin fiscal revenue, falling productivity and mounting poverty… It was in this context that Bola Ahmed Tinubu, running under the banner of the All Progressives Congress (APC) won the presidency. He framed his governing agenda as “Renewed Hope, a philosophy meant to fuse economic reform with investment in infrastructure, human capital, security, employment, social protection and institutional strengthening…” (pp. 210 -211).
The remaining sections of Part Two are devoted to an explanation and a review of “What Renewed Hope Means” in a detailed manner, as an electoral pact between the Tinubu administration and the Nigerian people, and as a development /structural transformation plan for social renewal, economic renewal, infrastructural renewal, institutional renewal and to restore confidence in Nigeria’s future. Dr. Kofa adds: “Renewed Hope, then, is not simply a slogan. It is a policy narrative that links economic reform, productive investment, and social development… Renewed Hope has grown from a campaign identity into a broader development framework” (p. 220). The extent to which this is so is examined under such headings as “the citizen at the centre of national development (pp. 220 – 227), “from economic crisis to inclusive growth” ( Chapter 13), fuel subsidy reform (pp. 231 – 233), “the administration’s claims on corruption in fuel and foreign exchange” (pp. 233 – 234), “rising external reserves (pp. 236 – 237), “the four tax laws and rising tax revenue”, “pp. 239 -240), “the security challenges” (pp. 245 – 254), “from hunger to food sovereignty” (p. 255), this by the way, is one of the major components of the Renewed Hope Agenda” (p. 256), “Energy, Electricity and Natural Resources: Powering the Engine of Development” (p. 270), “Roads, Rail and Ports Infrastructure” (Chapter 17), “Education, Health and Human Capital: Investing in People (Chapter 18), “Building Nigeria’s human capital” (pp. 313 – 314), “Beyond Oil: Industrialization, Manufacturing and Innovation” (Chapter 19), “Governance, Accountability and Public Service: Restoring Trust Between Government and Citizens” (Chapter 20), “Renewed Hope and the Nigerian Citizens: From Government Programmes to Everyday Life (Chapter 21), “Youth, Women and the Future of Nigeria: Investing in the Next Generation” Chapter 22), “From Agenda to Action: Measuring the Renewed Hope Agenda” (Chapter 23), and Chapter 24: “The Cost of Reform: Sacrifice, Resistance and the Search for Balance” Thus, the author offers an all-encompassing overview of the Tinubu Reform Agenda, and although he writes with conviction about the philosophy of reform and renewal, he is generally even-handed, as he draws attention to a number of caveats.
A major bane of the policy formulation and implementation process in Nigeria has been the lack of coordination within the government and also between the Federal and State Governments. Dr Kofa notes the importance of this synergy at all levels for any form of structural transformation to be meaningful. He argues that “where intergovernmental relationships are poorly coordinated, duplication of programmes and disputes over resources can weaken public service delivery”. He therefore recommends horizontal coordination among MDAs, and vertical coordination between federal and state governments. He also plays up the need for measuring and evaluating performance, what the Tinubu administration has done in this regard, although there have been concerns about whether the administration’s assessment has resulted in any concrete action given reports of underperformance in many sectors and the underfunding of some of the critical pillars of the renewal including agriculture and health. But perhaps the more interesting part of Kofa’s submissions is his honest declaration that true “Reform is never free” or as he also puts it “Reform is rarely painless” (p.372). He adds that “reforms create winners and losers. and the losers are often more visible and politically vocal in the short-term than the diffuse long-term beneficiaries” (p. 372). And that indeed, “the cost of transition is steep” (p. 374).
This incidentally is the reality with the Tinubu Renewed Hope Agenda, successful by this author’s reckoning at the macroeconomic level, but as he observes, and not many will argue, there is a clear need for “a search for balance between macroeconomic stability and household welfare.” (p. 373). The basic fundamentals within the economy may be going through a correction due to policy actions by the government, but poverty persists, inflation is high, purchasing power is low, the country faces a cost-of -living crisis, and more should be done to support vulnerable Nigerians because “the baseline measure of any structural reform lies not in the nobility of its economic goals but in the tactical management of its human execution.” (p. 378). Kofa returns to this point again and again. In one breath, he says “For policymakers throughout emerging markets, Nigeria stands as a powerful reminder: economic reforms can only endure if the speed of fiscal adjustment respects the threshold of human endurance.” (p. 384). Reforms are difficult, they thrive on three pillars: sacrifice (on the part of the people who must be prepared to make compromises), resistance (in form of pushbacks from organized labour or those involved in political mobilization, or those fighting for survival), and balance (which is the need for leaders to restore equilibrium and rebuild trust, by balancing short-term gain with long-term gains.). These submissions are relatable.
In the concluding four chapters in Part Three, Dr Kofa returns to his original hypothesis about the Renewed Hope Agenda “as. a pathway to Nigeria’s Economic Transformation”. He again acknowledges the “uncommon accomplishment” of Tinubu’s reforms but also observes that “stabilization has not led to widespread prosperity” (p. 394.) The Renewed Hope Agenda, mid-2023 – 2025) may have achieved the stabilization of the economy, its second phase, The Renewed Hope National Development Plan (2026 2030) targets a trillion-dollar economy, and while it is true that “no other development plan in Nigeria has been so ambitious”, Kofa posits that “the future should be about the sustainability of the reforms in case the government is voted into power in 2027” (p. 403). Dr. Kofa suggests that the job of reform is not yet done, reform fatigue should be avoided, and in a series of forecasts, he concludes that if the policies of the Tinubu were to continue, Nigeria may eventually be able to move away from its oil addiction to “a more diversified and export-oriented economy.” These are his key conclusions. What he then proposes through a series of forecasts, and the building of scenarios is what he calls the “institutionalization of Tinubunomics”, meaning how present economic gains can be sustained till 2050. Kofa’ s fear is that past reforms failed to survive because they were tested by the oil boom, and the reforms that have survived are those that changed the equation of who earns the money.
Certainly, the purpose of reform must not be the enrichment of a privileged minority at the expense of the people’s prosperity. Some readers may disagree with the data set on which Kofa’s projections for the future are based, but it is hard to disagree with his more general observations about what must be done to sustain the current gains that he describes or his final take on “the responsibility we share as Nigerians” (p. 456), in the journey towards a possible future of “shared prosperity” (p. 457). The book ends on a poetic and preachy note, and further endorsement of the “Reform Hope Agenda beyond 2027” (p. 459) or when he said earlier “that the architecture is sound, but the building remains under construction, and the Nigerian people are watching.” This is probably as close as the author gets near sounding partisan. Given the temper of the times, opposition politicians and their agents may disagree not necessarily with this author’s observations about the necessity of economic diversification but more with his assessment of the Reform Agenda, even if much of that may well be politics, not scholarship. Besides, he recommends that The Renewed Hope Programme and Nigeria Agenda 2050 must become “an Act of the National Assembly” (p. 448). I doubt if reform can be legislated and made binding in a politically diverse context.
Nonetheless, Economic Diversification and Structural Transformation in Nigeria: Past. Present. Future. is a work of painstaking research and scholarship, a brilliant contribution to the existing literature on the making and the unmaking of Nigeria, and a well-presented publication on how further progress can be made. The book is warmly recommended for your attention.