The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has called on Ethiopia to fundamentally transform its management of recurring climate disasters, urging the government and development partners to invest heavily in early warning systems, scientific forecasting, and anticipatory action rather than relying primarily on emergency assistance after communities suffer losses.
Abebe Haile-Gabriel, Assistant Director-General and Regional Representative for Africa (RAF) at the FAO, told Capital that Ethiopia’s repeated exposure to climate shocks necessitates shifting from reactive humanitarian interventions to preventive measures that protect livelihoods before crises escalate into full-scale emergencies.
While emergency assistance remains essential for communities already affected by drought, the representative argued that repeatedly responding after livestock perish, crops fail, and households lose their livelihoods offers no sustainable solution to the country’s long-standing climate vulnerability.
”Ethiopia has become accustomed to recurring drought risks. Drought comes, people suffer, livestock are lost, and then assistance is provided. But this is not the solution we advocate for,” Abebe said.
Instead, the FAO promotes an approach enabling authorities to anticipate climate threats and implement protective interventions based on scientific forecasts. Under this model, early warning data identifies high-risk communities and evaluates shock severity to deploy targeted support before households lose productive assets.
Such proactive interventions include pre-positioning livestock feed, strengthening veterinary services, enhancing water access, distributing drought-resistant seeds, and providing timely aid to vulnerable farming and pastoralist households.
”The long-term solution is to become anticipatory. These events recur; they are not isolated. We need early warning systems and scientific solutions that allow us to prepare in advance,” he added.
The call comes as Ethiopia faces climate concerns linked to the strengthening El Niño phenomenon and the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which heavily influence rainfall patterns across the Greater Horn of Africa.
While drought remains a central priority, the immediate outlook for the October–December rainy season raises significant concerns over excessive rainfall, flash floods, and riverine flooding across several regions.
According to the October El Niño Preparedness and Response Situation Update issued by the IMPAACT programme, Ethiopia has activated anticipatory action in four districts across the Somali and Oromia regions due to high probabilities of above-normal rainfall.
The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC) estimates that approximately 9.3 million people reside in districts identified for early intervention. Over 163 districts are classified as vulnerable to climate hazards, with 114 triggered for anticipatory action. Among these, 84 woredas across Afar, Amhara, northern Somali, and Tigray fall under Priority Levels 1 and 2.
Regional projections indicate a particularly high probability of enhanced rainfall across southern and southeastern Ethiopia. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecasts a 90 percent probability of above-normal rainfall in southern Ethiopia and central-southern Somalia. The combined influence of El Niño and a positive IOD increases the risk of heavy rainfall, potential flooding, displacement, and severe agricultural damage.
Current preparedness measures build on initiatives started in September, focusing on early warning dissemination, community preparedness messaging, and the pre-positioning of essential supplies. Gode and Adadle districts in the Shebelle Zone of the Somali Region have received focused attention due to high flood exposure.