Nume Ekeghe
The Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) has predicted that Nigeria’s current account surplus will widen to $8.69 billion in the third quarter of 2026, from $7.54 billion recorded in the second quarter.
This, it said, will be possible because of lower import demand and persistently elevated crude oil prices.
The association disclosed this in its September 2026 Monthly Market Report, noting that the Q2 current account surplus had surpassed its earlier projection of $6.12 billion.
“Nigeria’s current account surplus strengthened further in Q2 2026 to $7.54 billion, surpassing our earlier projection of $6.12 billion,” the report stated.
It added: “By the time Q3 2026 data is released, we expect the surplus to widen further to $8.69 billion, buoyed by lower import demand, and persistently elevated crude oil prices.”
The projection comes as Nigeria’s trade position continues to strengthen, with the trade balance rising from $1.18 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $5.45 billion in Q1 2026 and further to $9.22 billion in Q2.
Similarly, the current account balance rose from $1.40 billion in Q4 2025 to $4.98 billion in Q1 2026 before reaching $7.54 billion in Q2.
The improvement, FMDA said, has been supported by stronger oil prices, with average Brent crude rising by 14.43 per cent in September to $99.95 per barrel amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
FMDA said the higher oil prices were providing further support for Nigeria’s external position, with gross foreign reserves rising to $54.92 billion in September from $53.81 billion in August.
“Elevated prices continue to support Nigeria’s external position, with reserves rising to $54.92bn and the Q2 current account surplus widening to $7.54bn,” the report stated.
It added that the stronger external position has also coincided with an appreciation of the naira.
The currency, it said, strengthened by 1.93 per cent in September, “which FMDA attributed primarily to improved foreign exchange fundamentals.”
“The appreciation of the naira in September was primarily driven by improved FX fundamentals, including stronger inflows from oil receipt and sustained market confidence,” the report stated.
FMDA, however, said the impact of the Dangote IPO on FX liquidity remained limited for now.
“While the Dangote IPO may have contributed marginally through increased investor interest and pre-positioning flows, its direct impact on FX liquidity remains limited for now, as significant foreign currency conversion is expected only after allotment,” it stated.