By Kingsley Omonobi
ABUJA — National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, has backed plans for a new National Baseline Survey on illicit small arms and light weapons, saying Nigeria must replace outdated data and address methodological and coordination gaps identified from the 2016 exercise.
Ribadu said the proposed survey was necessary to provide credible evidence on the scale, distribution and movement of illicit weapons across the country and strengthen government’s response to the security challenges associated with their proliferation.
He spoke through the Director of External Affairs in the Office of the NSA, Mr Solomon Feyintola, at a workshop on Lessons Learnt from Nigeria’s 2016 National Baseline Survey on Illicit Small Arms and Light Weapons.
The workshop was organised to review the outcome and shortcomings of the 2016 survey ahead of a new national exercise.
Ribadu described the proliferation of illicit small arms and light weapons as a major national security threat, linking their availability to banditry, communal conflicts, farmer-herder clashes, organised crime, terrorism and insurgency.
“The proliferation of illicit small arms and light weapons is not an abstract policy concern. It is a deadly threat to the safety of our people,” he said.
He noted that the weapons had continued to fuel violence in different parts of the country, stressing that government’s response must be based on reliable evidence rather than estimates.
“Behind every statistic on illicit weapons is a community that has lost its peace, a family that has lost a loved one or a livelihood that has been destroyed. Government’s response to this threat cannot be based on guesswork. It must be built on evidence,” he said.
According to the NSA, the 2016 survey provided Nigeria with an important picture of the nature and scale of illicit weapons proliferation and helped shape government policies, including the establishment of the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (NCCSALW) and the development of a National Action Plan.
He, however, said the experience also exposed challenges that needed to be addressed before another survey was undertaken.
“Before we launch into the next National Baseline Survey, we owe ourselves the discipline of an honest review. What worked? What did not? And what must be done differently this time?” he asked.
Ribadu identified an accurate national baseline as a strategic security asset capable of improving the targeting of counter-proliferation and disarmament measures, while helping authorities track illicit weapons within communities and across national borders.
He also called for a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach, involving security agencies, state and local governments, traditional and religious institutions, civil society organisations and communities.
The NSA further stressed the importance of international partnerships and welcomed the participation of officials from the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) and the United Nations Regional Centre for Peace and Disarmament in Africa.
He expressed confidence that the workshop would produce lessons and best practices from the 2016 exercise, as well as a roadmap for conducting a credible new survey.
2016 figures no longer sufficient — UN
Also speaking, the Director/Deputy High Representative of UNODA, Dr Adedeji Ebo, said Nigeria could no longer rely solely on data collected in 2016 to assess the country’s current illicit arms threat.
Ebo said the security landscape had changed considerably over the past decade, making updated quantitative and qualitative data essential for effective policy formulation.
“For too long, policies on small arms, not only in Nigeria but across our region, have relied on what have become inaccurate estimates and extrapolations,” he said.
He stressed that Nigeria was not starting from scratch, noting that the 2016 survey provided a solid foundation, but added that its age limited its usefulness for analysing the country’s current security situation.
“Today, you cannot conduct a solid national threat analysis in 2026 based solely on data from 2016,” Ebo said.
He said an updated survey would help determine the number and types of illicit weapons in circulation, identify trafficking routes and establish how the weapons were affecting communities.
According to him, reliable data would also enable government to properly target interventions, measure progress in areas such as arms marking and tracing, improve record-keeping and strengthen national budgeting.
Ebo added that accurate national data was critical to Nigeria’s implementation of international and regional arms-control agreements, including the Arms Trade Treaty and the ECOWAS Convention on Small Arms and Light Weapons.
“If you do not have accurate data, you cannot properly report, plan, monitor or assess progress,” he said.
He said the new survey would also provide an important evidence base for Nigeria’s next National Action Plan on small arms control and support institutions responsible for addressing the consequences of illicit weapons proliferation.
Ebo said the exercise could further strengthen Nigeria’s leadership role in regional and global disarmament efforts, particularly amid growing challenges linked to terrorism, drug trafficking, cross-border crime and illicit arms trafficking.
NCCSALW seeks comprehensive fresh assessment
In his welcome address, Director-General of the NCCSALW, retired DIG Johnson Kokumo, said illicit small arms and light weapons remained among the most persistent threats to peace, security and sustainable development in Nigeria and the wider West African and Sahel regions.
Kokumo said the weapons continued to facilitate banditry, terrorism, communal violence and organised crime, while weakening social cohesion and undermining public safety.
He argued that operational measures alone could not resolve the problem without accurate information on the nature, scale, distribution, sources and drivers of illicit weapons proliferation.
“Sound policy must be anchored in sound evidence,” he said.
Kokumo described the 2016 survey as a landmark initiative that helped Nigeria understand the dynamics and distribution of illicit weapons and informed subsequent policy and institutional interventions.
He, however, noted that the country’s security environment had changed significantly since the exercise.
According to him, new forms of criminality have emerged, trafficking routes and methods have evolved, while weapons proliferation has become increasingly intertwined with political, economic, social, environmental and security challenges.
He said the developments made a fresh and comprehensive assessment imperative.
Kokumo said the workshop would provide an opportunity for stakeholders to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the 2016 exercise and determine the methodology, scope and implementation framework required for the next National Baseline Survey.
He added that the exercise would facilitate institutional knowledge transfer between stakeholders who participated in the 2016 survey and those expected to contribute to the forthcoming national assessment.
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