•Asylum figure drops over 30% to 56,176 as world tightens rules
•Strict border controls not solution, pushes migrants to dangerous routes – IOM
•Desperation fuels irregular migration- Ex-envoy
By Nkiruka Nnorom
NIGERIA’S refugee crisis has deepened significantly, with the number of Nigerians living as refugees abroad surging by 36 per cent to 478,150 in six years, despite unprecedented tightening of immigration laws by major destination countries.
Data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR, obtained by Vanguard, shows that the number of Nigerians recognised as refugees abroad under UNHCR mandate rose to 478,150 in 2025 from 352,960 in 2020 even as the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and the European Union, EU, continue to slam their doors with the toughest immigration curbs in modern history. The figure represents an increase of 125,190 persons or 36 per cent in six years.
A year-on-year breakdown shows a steady, unbroken rise. From 352,960 in 2020, it rose to 383,660 in 2021, indicating an 8.7 per cent increase. It inched up to 391,120 in 2022, rose to 410,308 in 2024, and then spiked by 17 per cent to the current 478,150 in 2025, the sharpest rise in the period under review.
UNHCR data indicated that the figure accelerated in 2026 with Niger, Cameroon and Chad alone now hosting 475,901 Nigerian refugees.
Further breakdown shows that Niger (258,402), Cameroon (127,858), Canada (34,125), Chad (22,811) and Italy with 22,186 emerged the top five destinations for Nigeria’s refugees during the period with Niger, Cameroon and Chad hosting 85 per cent of the number, suggesting that most Nigerians who flee do not go far.
In contrast, the number of Nigerians seeking asylum – those whose claims are pending – dropped by 35.6 per cent to 56,176 in 2025 from 87,289 in 2020, a development UNHCR Nigeria attributed to fewer pending claims in the United States. It said pending claims in the US fell to 3,033 during the period from 33,414 in 2020.
UNHCR Nigeria told Vanguard that the declining asylum figure does not suggest a fall in the number of people fleeing the country, saying the figure represents claims awaiting a decision. “The figure falls when claims are decided or closed, not because fewer people are fleeing,” it said.
On the rising refugee number, the UN refugee agency attributed it to the escalating conflict and insecurity across the country, noting that while economic hardship deepens vulnerability, the primary driver remains forced flight from violence.
It further explained that neighbouring countries, generally, recognize Nigerians fleeing conflict as refugees on a group basis. “So they count as refugees, not asylum-seekers,” it explained.
Meanwhile, the International Organisation for Migration, IOM, estimates that over 3.6 million Nigerians are internally displaced, a pool from which cross-border refugees emerge.
The development technically places Nigeria in the same league as the world’s most troubled and war-torn nations that account for the highest refugee populations globally, including Myanmar, DR Congo, Afghanistan, Sudan, South Sudan, Syria and Ukraine.
Country-by-country breakdown: How displacement exploded
According to UNHCR data, refugee numbers have surged compared to when these countries were relatively more peaceful in 2020.
Myanmar: When the situation was relatively calmer in 2020, Myanmar had 1.103 million refugees and 40,207 asylum seekers. By 2025, following escalated conflict, the number rose to 1.52 million refugees and 67,825 asylum seekers.
DR Congo: In 2020, during a period of relative stability, DR Congo had 840,392 refugees and 145,372 asylum seekers. By 2025, the figure more than doubled to 1.78 million refugees and 168,421 asylum seekers.
Afghanistan: Even in 2020, Afghanistan had a high 2.59 million refugees and 238,791 asylum seekers. By 2025, after the Taliban takeover and continued instability, the refugee population moved to 2.67 million, with 270,007 asylum seekers.
Sudan: This shows the starkest deterioration. In 2020, when Sudan was relatively peaceful, it had 787,823 refugees and 70,049 asylum seekers. By 2025, after the 2023 civil war, it rose to 2.39 million refugees and 940,297 asylum seekers, a threefold increase in refugees and over thirteenfold increase in asylum seekers.
South Sudan: In 2020, South Sudan had 2.18 million refugees and 4,858 asylum seekers. By 2025, it increased to 2.39 million refugees and 123,984 asylum seekers, with asylum seekers rising dramatically.
Syrian Arab Republic: In 2020, at the height of the Syrian crisis, Syria had 6.703 million refugees and 107,085 asylum seekers. By 2025, the number had declined to 4.87 million refugees and 154,355 asylum seekers, reflecting some returns but continued displacement.
Ukraine: This is the clearest case of peace to war. In 2020, when Ukraine was relatively peaceful, it had only 35,156 refugees and 21,426 asylum seekers. By 2025, following the full-scale war, it now has 5.22 million refugees and 26,583 asylum seekers.
Unlike these countries where open war is the primary driver, humanitarian workers opine that Nigeria’s surge is driven by a cocktail of insecurity, economic hardship, communal violence and climate-induced displacement. UNHCR corroborated the claims in a recent report, saying that conflict, insecurity, adverse weather events such as floods, and economic fragility as key push factors for cross-border movement.
36% surge defies US, UK, Canada, EU clampdown
The 36 per cent surge is more striking given the toughest immigration curbs in modern history introduced by major destinations in the last 24 months.
In the US, asylum was effectively shut from June 2024 under Biden’s “Securing the Border” proclamation. Crossings were capped at 2,500 daily and appointments forced through the CBP One app, with a higher credible fear standard. Under President Donald Trump from January 2025, refugee admissions were suspended, faith-based resettlement funding like United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, USCCB, was cancelled, and the full year 2026 refugee ceiling was slashed by 94 per cent to 7,500 from 125,000, with slots reserved for white South African Afrikaners. In December 2025, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services, USCIS, placed an indefinite pause on asylum decisions and in March 2026 retained a total block on approvals for nationals of 39 high-risk countries, despite a June 2026 court ruling declaring the blackout illegal.
In the UK, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood cut refugee leave to a temporary 30-month cycle with regular reviews and extended settlement to 20 years. Individuals are now required to mandatorily return if their home countries are deemed safe, while statutory housing and allowances have become discretionary.
Canada tightened rules through Bill C-12, “The Strengthening Canada Immigration System and Borders Act”, which received royal assent on March 26, 2026. The rule bars claims made over a year after entry for those who entered after June 24, 2020, requires US land-border irregular crossers to claim within 14 days, and gives authorities powers to suspend visas and pause streams.
The EU is rolling out its Pact on Migration and Asylum and a new Return Regulation tightening screening, detention and deportation.
Analysts opine the falling asylum figure shows the clampdown is deterring new filings, but the rising refugee stock proves root causes in Nigeria remain unresolved.
Why border clampdown fails – IOM
IOM noted that the increase in refugee numbers despite the curbs in place shows that stricter controls alone cannot stop movement.
Ali Ibrahim ALI, Head of Sub-Office, Lagos, said that migration is a reality of the world and fashioning out legal pathways that enable migrants to move safely is more effective than stricter border controls that push people into irregular and dangerous routes.
“Migration is a reality of our world. People move for many reasons, including opportunity, family, security and economic realities, and Nigerians are no different. Stricter borders alone will not stop migration and can push people towards irregular and more dangerous routes,” Ali said.
He noted that the challenge “is not simply to stop people from moving, but to manage migration safely, orderly and regularly,” through effective border management, legal pathways, reliable information and opportunities that reduce the risks of exploitation, trafficking and smuggling.
Desperation fuels irregular migration despite tighter borders – Amb. Adenike-Ukonga
Amb. Florentina Adenike-Ukonga, former Nigerian ambassador and former Executive Secretary of the Gulf ofGuineaCommission, GGC, attributed the surge to desperate irregular migration despite tighter official borders.
Adenike-Ukonga, said the movement is fuelled by the lure of better living conditions, unemployment and false promises of lucrative jobs abroad. Many sell properties to pay smugglers only to face exploitation, trafficking and worse conditions than when they left, she said.
She stated that many Nigerians are smuggled through the Sahara Desert via Morocco and Libya, crossing the Mediterranean Sea in small boats to reach southern Europe, particularly, Spain through enclaves like Ceuta.
She said: “They smuggle themselves out through Morocco and Libya, across the Mediterranean in small boats. When the boats capsize, they are rescued and taken to camps. That is why the refugee population soared despite border tightening. They think the grass is greener on the other side,” Ukonga said.
She added that while insecurity drives internal displacement in Nigeria, those who manage to cross to Europe are often more sophisticated and able to afford smuggling fees, unlike poor farm dwellers in remote villages who become internally displaced.
They are economic refugees, not political- Amb. Suleiman
Amb. Dahiru Suleiman, former Nigerian diplomat who served 27 of his 35 years in nine countries, said Nigeria is not at war to warrant a refugee surge.
He, however, noted that most Nigerians who flee abroad are economic refugees running from poverty, rather than political persecution as projected by many.
He added that those who leave think their financial problems will end abroad but end up doing two or three menial shifts to survive.
Recalling his encounter with Nigerians in Hungary in winter wearing tennis canvas while locals in thick boots shivered, and in Vienna where Nigerians were packed into a refugee hostel with food but no freedom to work, he said 90 percent of Nigerians in the US are barely living.
Suleiman lamented that many still risk the Sahara Desert to Libya and pay heavily for rickety boats across the Mediterranean, with many dying en route.
He, therefore, urged the Federal Government through the National Orientation Agency to sensitise Nigerians to secure jobs before travelling and exploit opportunities at home, noting that living perpetually on loans in America “is not life.”
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