A young entrepreneur planning to start a business may feel the impact of a rising US dollar when the price of a laptop, business equipment or raw materials increases. For millions of young people across Africa and the Arab world, such rising costs can make it harder to launch businesses, expand existing enterprises or secure employment.
The challenge comes amid broader economic uncertainty. In its October 2026 update, the World Bank projected that Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy would grow by 4.3 per cent in 2026. However, rising fuel, fertiliser and food prices, coupled with high debt-servicing costs, continue to strain household budgets and constrain government spending. The Bank’s October report on the Middle East and North Africa also highlighted how conflict and disruptions to energy supplies, transport and tourism are weakening the region’s economic outlook.
Although the effects vary across countries, the underlying challenge is similar. Economies that depend heavily on imported goods are particularly vulnerable to currency depreciation, while exporters earning foreign currency may benefit in certain circumstances. For young people and small businesses with limited savings and access to finance, however, rising import costs can quickly turn an ambitious business plan into a financial struggle.
The Cost of Starting and Growing a Business:
When a local currency loses value against the US dollar, imported goods generally become more expensive in local currency. Young entrepreneurs who depend on imported computers, machinery, spare parts, digital equipment or agricultural inputs may find themselves spending far more than they had budgeted.
For a start-up operating on limited capital, even a modest increase in costs can have serious consequences. An entrepreneur may postpone purchasing essential equipment, increase prices to remain in business or abandon plans to expand. Others may struggle to maintain sufficient working capital to pay suppliers, meet operating expenses or hire additional workers.
These pressures extend beyond individual businesses. When enterprises face higher production and operating costs, they may delay recruitment, reduce staff or scale back investment. Meanwhile, rising transport and food prices leave young people with less disposable income to spend on education, skills development and other essential needs.
Uganda provides a recent illustration of these pressures. In October 2026, the shilling weakened beyond UGX 4,000 against the US dollar, adding to the cost pressures facing businesses that depend on imports. The Daily Monitor reported that commercial banks quoted the dollar at UGX 4,017 when buying and UGX 4,027 when selling on October 5.
For entrepreneurs, farmers and established businesses that rely on imported machinery, fuel, raw materials and other inputs, a weaker shilling can translate into higher operating expenses. Businesses may respond by raising prices, reducing production or postponing expansion, potentially limiting opportunities for young people seeking their first jobs or hoping to establish their own enterprises.
Nevertheless, currency depreciation does not affect every business equally. Exporters earning dollars may receive more local currency for their sales, although the benefits depend on their operating costs and other market conditions. Conversely, businesses reliant on imported goods may experience rising expenses. Exchange rates are only one part of the equation; access to affordable finance, reliable infrastructure, market demand and sound economic policies also shape business growth and employment.
Turning Economic Pressure into Opportunity:
Economic uncertainty highlights the importance of building resilient businesses and creating an environment in which young people can adapt to changing market conditions.
Governments and financial institutions have a central role to play. Affordable financing, reliable infrastructure, stable economic policies and investment in practical skills can help young entrepreneurs establish and sustain viable businesses. Financial literacy training in budgeting, pricing, cash-flow management and risk assessment can also equip them to make informed decisions when costs fluctuate.
Supporting local production offers another opportunity. Where domestic producers can supply quality goods at competitive prices, businesses can reduce their dependence on selected imports while strengthening local value chains. This can create markets for farmers, manufacturers, technology providers and other young entrepreneurs.
However, promoting local production must go hand in hand with investment in productivity, technology, skills and access to markets. Simply replacing imports with locally produced goods will not automatically lower costs if domestic production remains expensive or unreliable.
Regional cooperation can also help young entrepreneurs discover new opportunities. The Afro-Arab Youth Council (AAYC), whose mission centres on peace, unity and development among young people in Africa and the Arab world, can contribute by connecting youth organisations, entrepreneurs and business networks across the two regions.
Through mentorship programmes, business forums, skills development initiatives and partnerships with financial institutions and the private sector, AAYC can help young people access knowledge, identify potential business partners and explore new markets. Cooperation can also promote the exchange of ideas and experiences in digital innovation, agriculture, manufacturing and other sectors with potential for youth-led enterprise.
Stronger commercial relationships between African and Arab countries could open doors for young entrepreneurs seeking suppliers, customers, investors and technical expertise. Such partnerships cannot control exchange rates or substitute for national economic policies, but they can help businesses diversify their markets, strengthen their networks and become more resilient to economic shocks.
Keeping Youth at the Centre of Development:
The rising dollar is more than a financial issue. It has implications for employment, entrepreneurship, household welfare and the ability of young people to participate meaningfully in economic development.
For a young person trying to establish a business, secure a first job or acquire the tools needed to earn a living, rising costs can make an already difficult journey even harder. The scale and nature of these effects differ across countries, underscoring the need for responses that reflect local economic realities and the needs of young people.
Young people should not be viewed merely as jobseekers waiting for opportunities to emerge. They are entrepreneurs, innovators, producers and potential employers whose ideas and initiatives can contribute to economic transformation. Enabling them to realise this potential requires more than encouraging ambition; it demands access to capital, relevant skills, technology, markets and supportive institutions.
For AAYC, this presents an opportunity to strengthen its contribution to youth empowerment by promoting practical cooperation, entrepreneurship and stronger business networks across Africa and the Arab world. By connecting young people to opportunities and encouraging partnerships that support enterprise development, the Council can help advance its broader agenda of unity, solidarity and sustainable development.
Ultimately, economic progress should not be measured by growth figures or exchange-rate movements alone. It should also be judged by whether young people can access decent work, establish sustainable businesses and build secure futures.
A stronger dollar may be beyond the control of an individual entrepreneur, but the opportunities available to young people should not be left entirely at the mercy of global currency movements. With the right policies, partnerships and investments, economic uncertainty can be met with resilience, innovation and renewed commitment to youth-led development.
The author works with the Afro-Arab Youth Council (AAYC).
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