More than 175,000 affected by floods as Somalia faces further heavy rains

Gaalkacyo, Abudwaq and Baidoa were among the hardest-hit areas. Area-Based Coordination teams reported that floods destroyed 1,515 shelters and damaged another 4,498 during the month. Floodwaters also damaged or inundated 2,110 latrines, 137 water points, 72 schools and 55 health facilities, disrupting access to essential services. Water levels in the Shabelle River rose significantly during the final week of October, approaching moderate flood-risk thresholds in Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region. Levels also increased in Bulo Burto, while the Juba River remained relatively low. The Food and Agriculture Organization's Somalia Water and Land Information Management program forecast heavy rainfall over the upper Shabelle River catchment in neighboring Ethiopia, raising concerns that water levels in Belet Weyne and Bulo Burto could continue rising. Humanitarian agencies warned that further rainfall could trigger displacement, cut off roads and disrupt the movement of aid and commercial supplies, particularly along routes serving Jowhar, Bulo Burto and Jalalaqsi. Flood risk assessments indicate that up to 3.4 million people could be affected between October and December, particularly in Hiraan, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions. The International Organization for Migration and the Danish Refugee Council estimate that more than 874,000 people could be displaced during the period, with flooding accounting for 92% of the projected displacement. Belet Weyne and Gaalkacyo are among the most exposed areas, with about 229,000 and 82,000 people, respectively, at risk of displacement. In response, humanitarian agencies have activated a flood anticipatory action plan backed by $7 million from the U.N. Central Emergency Response Fund and an additional $1 million from the Somalia Humanitarian Fund. The plan targets 14 high-risk districts along the Juba and Shabelle river basins. It links weather forecasts and river monitoring to pre-arranged funding, allowing aid agencies to act before flooding reaches critical levels. Measures include early warnings, cash assistance, community awareness campaigns, livestock protection and the pre-positioning of essential supplies. The initiative draws on lessons from the devastating 2023 floods, which affected about 2 million people and displaced 1.2 million, while damaging homes, farmland, water sources and essential infrastructure. Meanwhile, renewed fighting and insecurity in Bay region, in Somalia's South West State, have triggered further displacement and complicated humanitarian operations. In Buurhakaba district, where many people were already displaced by drought and previous fighting, humanitarian workers temporarily relocated beginning in mid-October. Civilians also fled to safer areas.