As global energy markets react to seismic geopolitical shifts, Nigerian consumers and businesses are watching closely to see when the relief felt on the international stage will reflect at local fuel stations.
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has called on refiners, depot owners and petroleum products importers to immediately adjust their prices downward in line with the recent decline in global crude oil prices.
According to the association, this adjustment would enable Nigerian consumers to benefit from the easing market conditions.
PETROAN notes that the drop in international crude prices presents a clear opportunity for operators in the downstream petroleum sector to reduce both ex-depot and retail pump prices, providing much-needed relief to households and businesses grappling with economic pressures.
Its National President, Billy Gillis-Harry, insisted that the realities of the international oil market should be reflected in local petroleum pricing.
“Brent crude has fallen to approximately $77 to $78 per barrel following the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and expectations that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually normalise,” the association said in a statement signed by its National Public Relations Officer, Joseph Obele.
“Market analysts have noted that crude oil prices are currently under downward pressure, although geopolitical risks remain. Current projections suggest that Brent crude may trade within the range of $75 to $82 per barrel next week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is expected to trade between $72 and $79 per barrel,” it added.
The Domestic Dilemma
Despite the drop in global benchmarks and recent domestic interventions, local pump prices have remained sticky. Two weeks ago, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals announced a reduction in the ex-depot prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO).
The company stated that the latest adjustment underscored its commitment to making refined petroleum products more affordable and supporting economic activities across the country.
The ex-depot price of PMS was reduced to ₦1,250 per litre from ₦1,275 per litre, while the price of AGO was cut to ₦1,700 per litre from ₦1,800 per litre.
“The price review comes amid the refinery’s continued efforts to improve supply efficiency, deepen domestic refining, and provide cost relief to consumers and businesses that depend heavily on petroleum products for transportation, power generation and industrial operations,” it stated.
But appearing on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief, PETROAN President Billy Gillis-Harry explained why these reductions have not yet trickled down to retail outlets:
“Prices reflecting are dependent on availability, cost, and preparing the particular petroleum to be delivered to the people,” he said.
When questioned on why price increases hit consumers immediately while decreases lag, he pointed to supply dynamics.
“It is mainly affected by whether the producer has additional resources or not at the time. Increases in prices are mainly caused by the need to restock. There must be that advantage pushing the price upward to be able to pay for new supplies,” Gillis-Harry said.
On whether existing, higher-cost stock must be exhausted first, Gillis-Harry said, “That’s the basic idea. But in petroleum, a mixture is involved, and loss is taken, though not in a way that affects the capital needed to restock.”
Emphasizing the industry’s ultimate goal, he said, “Petroleum is concerned with making Nigeria better”.
Logistics Vs Geopolitics
Energy analyst Olabode Sowunmi highlighted that Nigeria’s fuel pricing structures are insulated by unique local factors, such as the Dangote Refinery’s naira-denominated crude allocations:
“Global price of crude oil is a factor but a factor internationally and not necessarily in Nigeria. So basically the issue will have to be from the point of refinery to where it touches the final person,”
“So basically our cost issues in terms of reflecting to the final person deal with our own logistics rather than the geopolitics that is taking place at the moment,” he explained.
When asked why internal logistics matter more during price spikes than cuts, Sowunmi said, “There could be various reasons, but it all comes down to the seller.”
But to circumvent these structural bottlenecks, PETROAN has urged the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to continue issuing import licences to qualified marketers, arguing that increased competition would moderate prices and discourage monopolies.
The Aviation Crisis
The critical need for lower energy prices is underscored by the severe strain felt across other transport sectors earlier this year. In April 2026, the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) warned that airlines across the country may suspend operations over an “astronomical and unsustainable” rise in Jet A1 fuel, which surged from ₦900 per litre in February to ₦3,300 per litre.
In a letter addressed to the Executive Secretary of the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), Mr. Clement Isong, the AON stated that airline revenues were insufficient to cover fuel costs alone, calling the spike “artificial.”
However, major oil marketers attributed the crisis directly to the global supply shocks now being resolved by the US-Iran deal. In a response signed by Clement Isong, MEMAN stated:
“The challenge is that the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have severely disrupted global supply chains and significantly affected the pricing and availability of middle distillate products such as diesel and Jet A1. Transport costs within the country have therefore gone up by an average of 50 per cent,” it stated.
MEMAN also pointed to the rigid distribution regulations required for aviation fuel:
“It is also important to note that the transportation and distribution of ATK is governed by specific protocols for quality assurance and safety reasons, which are more stringent than those applicable to most other petroleum products.
“Dedicated equipment, specialised handling procedures, and rigorous quality checks at every stage of the supply chain are non-negotiable requirements. These necessary safeguards inherently make the logistics and distribution of ATK a more cost-intensive undertaking compared to other petroleum products,” it said.
The Global Catalyst: Reopening Strait Of Hormuz
The root of this global pricing pressure traces directly back to the Middle East. Following a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, commercial shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz has surged to its highest rate in two months.
According to tracking firm AXSMarine, as reported by AFP, 25 commercial vessels crossed the newly reopened strait on a single Thursday—more than five times the daily average recorded in early June. Iranian forces had effectively closed the trade artery after US and Israeli strikes sparked a war on February 28, 2026, cutting off a route that normally handles a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
The closure drove up global oil prices and choked energy shipments worldwide. However, following the June 14 agreement, the market has reversed.
Speaking with AFP, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, said, “Energy and transport sectors will be the first to feel the relief, before it spills toward the rest of the economy.
“But questions remain regarding the US ability to end the war without Israel’s willingness to participate.”
As the Strait of Hormuz normalises and pushes Brent crude down toward the $75–$82 range, Nigerian consumers hope these international shifts will soon bring stability home.
“For Nigeria, sustained moderation in crude oil prices, coupled with stable exchange rates and refining costs, should support lower petrol prices and provide relief to consumers and businesses facing economic challenges,” said PETROAN.
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