By Ugo Inyama
Nigeria’s economy increasingly resembles a house whose foundations have been repaired while its occupants remain hungry. The structure may be steadier, but the people living inside it are yet to feel secure.
The naira is calmer. Foreign exchange liquidity has improved. Government revenues have risen. Inflation is moderating statistically, while real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026.
From the government’s dashboard, the warning lights appear to be going off one after another. But dashboards do not feed families. An economy cannot be declared stable simply because the figures have stopped trembling.
The real test of stability is not what appears on a spreadsheet in Abuja. It is what remains in a worker’s pocket after buying food, paying transport fares, settling electricity bills and meeting the costs of rent, healthcare and education.
Nigeria’s economic managers may celebrate improving indicators. Ordinary Nigerians have an even greater right to ask: stability for whom?
For millions of families, life remains brutally unstable. Incomes have not kept pace with the cumulative rise in prices. Households now survive through relentless subtraction. They remove protein from meals, postpone medical treatment, change schools and cancel journeys.
Inflation may be falling, but prices are not. They are simply rising more slowly. That distinction comforts economists more than households.
Headline inflation reportedly moderated to 15.43 per cent in July 2026, yet food inflation accelerated to 20.31 per cent. This is the contradiction at the heart of the recovery. The national average may be improving while the kitchen economy remains under siege.
Growth presents a similar paradox. The National Bureau of Statistics reported growth of 4.43 per cent in the second quarter. Services accounted for 56.62 per cent of output, while agriculture grew by 4.39 per cent. Industry expanded by 3.96 per cent, considerably slower than during the corresponding period of 2025.
Growth is welcome. But Nigeria needs growth that creates jobs, raises productivity and outpaces population growth. Expansion in banking and telecommunications does not automatically rescue a farmer facing insecurity, an Aba manufacturer crushed by energy costs or a graduate endlessly searching for work.
The composition of growth matters as much as the headline figure.
Nigeria must expand manufacturing, agriculture processing, construction, logistics and technology services. These sectors can absorb labour, spread opportunity and strengthen exports.
Exchange rate stability must face the same test. A calmer naira improves planning and discourages speculation. But is that stability helping manufacturers import machinery, expand production and employ more Nigerians? Or is it merely helping financial investors make more predictable calculations?
Currency stability without productive transformation is fragile. Nigeria cannot permanently defend the naira through high interest rates and short term capital inflows. The strongest defence is an economy that produces competitively, exports consistently and earns foreign exchange from multiple sources.
There is also a growing conflict between monetary stability and enterprise. High interest rates may restrain inflation and support the naira, but they make credit prohibitively expensive. Large corporations may survive. Small businesses, which employ most Nigerians, often cannot.
An economy cannot fight inflation indefinitely by suffocating production.
Fiscal reform raises another question. Fuel subsidy removal, electricity tariff adjustments and improved revenue collection have strengthened government finances. Nigerians are entitled to ask what they have received in return.
Reform cannot be judged only by how much government saves or collects. It must be judged by what that money delivers. Increased revenue should produce reliable electricity, better roads, functioning hospitals, improved schools and safer communities.
Otherwise, reform simply transfers resources from struggling citizens to an inefficient state.
The social contract cannot consist exclusively of sacrifice by the people and promises by the government.
Citizens will tolerate difficult reforms when the burden is shared fairly, government visibly reduces waste and the benefits are measurable. Nothing destroys confidence faster than asking households to endure higher costs while public officials preserve extravagant lifestyles.
Nigeria must now move from stabilisation to transmission. Improving indicators must begin to reach ordinary people.
Food security must become an economic emergency. Rural insecurity must be confronted. Irrigation, storage, transportation and access to affordable farming inputs must improve.
Reliable electricity must become a national obsession. Nigeria cannot industrialise on generators and imported diesel.
Affordable credit must reach productive businesses, not politically connected borrowers. Increased public revenue must also be connected transparently to measurable outcomes across every level of government.
Social protection must be properly targeted and delivered through trustworthy digital identity and payment systems. Assistance must reach vulnerable citizens directly, not disappear into another patronage network.
Nigeria’s reforms may have prevented a deeper crisis. That deserves acknowledgement. But preventing collapse is not the same as creating prosperity. Stability is the foundation of an economy. It is not the final destination.
The government must resist declaring victory from improving graphs. Nigerians do not eat GDP figures. They experience the economy through food prices, wages, jobs, electricity and whether their children can realistically hope for better lives.
The numbers may be moving in the right direction. The people must move with them.
Until stability reaches the marketplace, the factory floor, the family table and the monthly salary, Nigerians will continue to ask:
Stability for whom?
*Ugo Inyama
Email: Ugo@africandgc.org
Website: www.africandgc.org