Funmi Ogundare
The Publisher of Politico.ng, under the Political Intelligence Group, Lai Omotola, Thursday, projected President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as maintaining a slim lead over former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar ahead of the 2027 general election.
Omotola, who disclosed this while presenting the third edition of his November 2026 electoral map, in Lagos, explained that the presidential contest was becoming increasingly competitive, with changing voter preferences and the growing influence of young Nigerians expected to shape the outcome.
He projected that Obi would come second, while Atiku would occupy the third position, although the margin separating the three leading contenders remained narrow.
According to him, the political landscape has changed significantly, making it difficult for political parties to rely on previous electoral strategies and voting patterns.
He warned that politicians who approached the 2027 election with a business-as-usual mentality risked defeat.
“There are about 68 million new voters that will be voting for the first time in the 2027 elections, and the majority of these voters are youths. Unlike before, young people between the ages of 18 and 49 will dominate the election,” he stated.
Omotola also predicted that the 2027 general election could record the highest voter turnout in Nigeria’s electoral history, projecting participation of about 40 per cent, compared with the 29 per cent recorded in the last election.
In his state-by-state projection, he predicted that the All Progressives Congress (APC) would win 13 states, the New Democratic Congress (NDC) 13 states and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) 11 states.
He projected that the APC would dominate the South-west and North-central regions, while the NDC would win all states in the South-east and South-south, as well as Kano State and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
The ADC, according to him, would win states in the North-east and North-west, except Kano and Zamfara States.
He, however, stressed that the projections were based on the assumption that the 2027 elections would be free and fair.
Reviewing political developments in October, Omotola identified the commencement of campaigns by the three leading parties, the controversy surrounding the preliminary voters’ register released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and renewed debate over fuel subsidy as developments that could influence the electoral landscape.
He also cited the APC’s inaugural campaign in Kaduna, led by Tinubu, and Atiku’s proposal for the restoration of fuel subsidy as significant political and economic developments during the period.
Omotola expressed concern over the controversy surrounding the preliminary voters’ register, which he said had been affected by the inclusion of AI-generated names.
He further observed that opposition parties were encountering stiff resistance in their campaign activities, while internal disagreements within the APC could affect its electoral fortunes.
According to him, these developments could influence the three parties differently as political activities intensify ahead of the 2027 polls.
Omotola also identified political developments within opposition parties and the legal challenges confronting them as factors capable of changing the electoral projections before the election.
On the influence of religion in the 2027 election, the publisher said it remained a significant factor, particularly in northern Nigeria, where religious considerations continued to influence voter behaviour.
He interpreted Tinubu’s decision to retain his Muslim-Muslim ticket and his recent visit to Saudi Arabia as part of efforts to reinforce his religious credentials and appeal to northern voters.
He added that the north would play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the presidential election, noting that the contest would also test whether the region could maintain a united political position or become increasingly divided.
Omotola, however, cautioned that the electoral projections could change as political alignments, legal developments and campaign activities unfold.
He urged political parties, INEC and other stakeholders to prioritise peaceful, free and credible elections, describing the forthcoming poll as a defining moment for Nigeria’s democracy.
“This will be a turning point for Nigeria’s democracy, and the country will be a better place for it,” he said.