OPEYEMI BAMIDELE urges all to play by the rules in the governorship election
The governorship election in Osun State is just 48 hours away. It is a critical process that presents the state’s 2.339 million registered voters another defining moment to painstakingly reflect before casting their ballots for the candidate who will best serve their collective interests. The registered voters, as shown in the INEC records, spread across 30 local government areas, 332 wards and 3,763 polling units that cut across the state.
Perhaps, like never before, the process is indeed a defining moment that freely offers the people the power to choose their next governor. The moment is not just significant because the state is at a point of inflection. It is obviously so because of the promises the next poll holds for the future of Osun State or how it will shape its public governance in the next four years, even for the unborn generation that the policies and performance of the next government will either guarantee their futures or disappoint their aspirations outright.
This perspective has undoubtedly reignited the enthusiasm, energy, and commitment that the people of Osun State have demonstrated since political parties began rolling out their campaign manifestos. This is the beauty of democracy across the universe. On the one hand, it allows office seekers to present themselves to the people, indeed the electorate, who occupy the exalted seat of the ultimate judge in every democracy. On the other hand, it gives the people the power to determine who governs or leads them based on their public records.
This thesis is now more rapidly than any time in the past shaping and reshaping the perception and thinking of Osun’s teeming voters now that they are presented with a credible alternative, whom the power of propaganda and the force of incumbency could not just suppress or shove down to the wastebin of history. What is now left at this crucial time is for all party candidates to brace up for the contest; walk into the ring of the ultimate judges and patiently wait for the outcome of their decisions.
This should be a hard lesson for all political actors that the power to decide still lies in the hands of the people and not in the incumbent. If actually the candidates are in the race to serve their people, they should submit themselves to the electoral regime and be guided by the provisions of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended). That is why the people of Osun State must collectively vote for peace and shun any form of violence in the guber context.
As witnessed in the last 9-12 months that the electioneering has effectively commenced in the state, the contest is between the incumbent governor, Senator Ademola Adeleke and the governorship candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC), Mr. Bola Oyebamiji. Different projections have been made about the outlook of each of the governorship candidates, the outcome of the process for the state and its implications for both indigenes and residents at large.
Unlike the 2022 election that we lost purely to lack of internal cohesion, the APC is now better positioned to reclaim the state’s seat of political power. The reasons are pure and simple, and they are not connected to the claims of Governor Adeleke that Osun APC is using federal might to defeat the incumbent. This claim is unfounded and even untrue. Unlike 2022, Osun APC is now more cohesive and prepared not just to regain the political control of the state, but also to reposition it posterity. But this cannot be said about Adeleke’s political structure, which ran into turbulence midway into his first administration. What Governor Adeleke has lost due to his poor relationship management skill has now been the gain of Osun APC.
Some indicators attest to the increasingly improving public perception of Osun APC and its governorship candidate. One of the indicators is evident in the disintegration of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the political establishment that helped Governor Adeleke to win the 2022 governorship contest. This tendency has now become more complicated when the faction of the PDP to which Adeleke owed his allegiance lost the legal battle to control the party and secure the recognition of the electoral umpire. The tendency compelled Governor Adeleke to opt for the Accord Party, a largely unknown political party, to pursue his re-election.
In practice as much as it is in principle, the viability of political structure is a time-tested determinant of victory in any electoral contest. Structure, in this sense, does not directly translate to incumbency. Rather, it is about the political capital a political party has been able to build over time. It is also about confidence or deep-seated trust the people have sustainably invested in their preferred political parties. It is about enduring influence political parties convincingly command across all the strata of a republic. It is the viability of the political capital that wins elections and not the power of incumbency. This is one formidable factor that now places the APC at a vantage position to win the next governorship poll in Osun State.
Can ACCORD pull such a formidable political capital to its advantage in the next Osun race? The outcome of the 2026 poll will answer this question more empirically. But from what we can see, the profile of ACCORD is little known in Osun’s political environment until Governor Adeleke recently pitched his tent with the party. In terms of performance, the party has not won any governorship election in our recent history. Before now, it won some state and federal legislative seats in Oyo State between 2011 and 2019 because of the influence of former Oyo State Governor and now Olubandan of Ibadan, Oba Rashidi Ladoja. Even then, his influence alone could not secure him victory in the 2011 guber contest.
It can be argued that some remnants of the PDP are still with Governor Adeleke. But what is the political strength of these remnants? Can they defeat Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola in his areas of political influence? Can they override the influence of the Turaki-led PDP faction that has already pledged their support to the APC in the next guber election? Apparently, the ACCORD lacks a formidable political structure that can mobilise much-needed support for its governorship candidate and guarantee his re-election next Saturday. This pattern reinforces the view that the APC remains the foremost contender in the next Osun poll.
Another indicator that glaringly favours the APC lies in the shrinking support base of the incumbent governor within his political circle. The real question is: how did Governor Adeleke manage the political capital that supported him to win the 2022 governorship contest? Evidence in the public space revealed that he mismanaged his relationship with key political actors and figures that generously supported him in 2022. His poor relationship management has forced former political allies to re-evaluate their ties with him and make decisive moves to protect their political interests.
Adeleke’s strained political alliances, however, have worked strictly to the APC’s advantage. Most of these political actors have completely withdrawn their support from him because he could not deftly manage the people. In the Senate, for instance, two out of the three senators from Osun State regretfully parted ways with Governor Adeleke because they were almost utterly excluded from the state’s governance process. Today, Francis Fadahunsi (Osun East) has found a new vibrant political family in the APC. They have also been integrated into the structure of the APC, where their views are always respected and their concerns are treated fairly and justly.
Likewise, three of the nine members of the House of Representatives have painfully parted ways with Governor Adeleke. The members include Hon. Omirin Olusanya (Ijesa South), Hon. Wole Oke (Ijesa North) and Taofeek Ajilesoro (Ife Central). These are time-tested political actors, who have built formidable grassroots support bases in their constituencies that they deployed in support of the incumbent in 2022. They had to quit the government they tirelessly worked for and embrace the APC. Defecting to the APC was, for them, a hard political choice that they had to make not really because of their personal interests. Rather, they made that crucial choice because the Adeleke administration could not guarantee the aspirations of their constituents any longer.
With all these tendencies, is it right for Governor Adeleke to accuse Osun APC of leveraging federal might to win the next governorship election? He might point at the decision of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to restrict the statutory allocation account of the Osun State Government domiciled in First Bank Plc. But the intervention of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, demonstrated the neutrality of the federal government in Osun State.
Similarly, the President has cautioned all security agencies against any form of professional misconduct before, during, and after the upcoming governorship election. This directive further underscores the President’s commitment to ensuring a credible, peaceful, and transparent election in Osun State, notwithstanding the participation of the APC in the contest. From all indications, the President has been fair to all parties in the interest of peace and stability.
In response, all parties are under obligation to play by the rules and avoid all practices that can endanger the peace and stability of Osun State. In the end, it is the people, not the federal government, that will determine who will govern them. For this reason, all parties and their candidates should concentrate on marketing their manifestoes to the people and embrace only practices that encourage peace and deepen stability in all parts of the state.
Obviously, APC is in good stead to win the Osun race. In 2022, interestingly, the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola lost his re-election to Adeleke as an incumbent governor due to lack of internal cohesion. Then, it did not matter that APC was the ruling party at the federal level. It should not, and indeed, would not matter if Governor Adeleke loses to a more organised, better structured, and united APC in the 2026 guber contest given the prevailing political circumstances. It is all about political institutions and strength, not about individuals or sentiments.
Senator Bamidele, CON,
Leader of the Senate, and Chairman,
South-West Caucus in the National Assembly