By Mobolaji Sanusi
“It’s not the voting that’s democracy; it’s the counting.”
—-Tom Stoppard(1937-2005).
The first ballot of the 2027 general election is now less than 100 days away, and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is using every opportunity to restate its preparedness to organise a credible election next year.
On two separate occasions this week — at the strategic workshop organised in collaboration with the Nigerian Guild of Editors and at the World Press Conference it convened, its Chairman, Professor Joash Amupitan, personally reiterated to a listening audience and a sceptical public the Commission’s readiness for the polls. A credible election, and nothing less, is all that millions of Nigerians expect from the INEC helmsman in what is his first major assignment.
Organising general elections in a diversely multi-ethnic and multi-religious country of over 220 million people like ours cannot be described as a tea party. A cursory look at INEC’s released operational data confirms this. The Commission’s operations cover 176,846 polling units, 8,838 Registration Area Centres in 36 states plus the FCT, and 774 local government offices across the country. Its other logistical requirements include 57,000 new Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) devices and more than 100,000 vehicles and 4,000 boats for the movement of personnel and election materials.
This looks herculean but not insurmountable with steady preparation and sincerity of purpose on the part of the Commission’s leadership. With less than 100 days to the first ballot, Amupitan, during his global media briefing, assured the nation and the international community of INEC’s “total commitment to neutrality, operational excellence, and the sacred integrity of the ballot box.”
His voice is loud enough to be heard, and until his promise becomes reality, it is only fair to give him the benefit of the doubt.
But a particular aspect of Amupitan’s speech that caught yours sincerely’s attention was his revelation that the national voter register now stands at 103,428,715. According to him, this follows the completion of the three phases of the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise, which produced an additional 10,772,421 fresh registrations. This could cautiously be interpreted as a reflection of Nigerians’ commitment to performing their civic responsibility in 2027, even though the reality of the 2023 elections suggests otherwise.
Expectedly, Lagos, the former federal capital, leads with 7,488,633 registered voters, followed by Kano with 6,570,276 and Kaduna with 4,662,640. Katsina has 3,876,051 voters, Rivers has 3,736,434, Oyo has 3,588,111, Delta has 3,525,988, Benue has 3,057,225, Ogun has 3,037,981 and Bauchi has 3,012,547.
At the bottom of the table are Ekiti, Bayelsa and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) with 1,055,708, 1,200,691 and 1,732,043 voters, respectively. The demographic breakdown shows that male voters constitute 53.53 million, representing 51.75 percent, while female voters account for 49.90 million, representing 48.25 percent. Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) captured in the register, according to INEC, amount to 232,658.
Obviously, these top ten states with the highest voter registration will remain the focal points of the battle for votes between the ruling and opposition parties. Curiously, five of the ten are from the northern part of the country, and the implication of this cannot be lost on the politically discerning. Also, Lagos leading other states in voter numbers is a reminder that the 2006 national population census is now obsolete, while also bringing to the fore the long-overdue call to accord the Centre of Excellence a special status in the federation.
The significant role of a credible voter register in any election cannot be ignored, which is why yours sincerely is particularly interested in it. A well-prepared voter register serves as a verification instrument for identifying eligible voters in order to prevent multiple voting or impersonation on election day. It also helps political parties to establish eligibility for nomination and to maintain a credible membership register. It further aids in the determination of polling unit locations, among other things. In view of all this, one would presuppose that INEC, before announcing the voter registration figures, must have done the requisite due diligence that is the hallmark of a credible register. Amupitan should not be found wanting in this regard.
More importantly, it is necessary to interrogate why, despite high voter registration figures, turnout on election day has hitherto remained particularly low. For instance, the 2023 register had 93.5 million voters, but turnout was put at 27 percent, believed to be the lowest ever recorded for a presidential election in this Fourth Republic. President Bola Tinubu, GCFR, of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who won the election, polled 8,794,726 votes, or 36.61 percent of the total votes cast. Atiku Abubakar of the PDP polled 6,984,520 votes, or 29.07 percent, while Peter Obi of the Labour Party scored 6,101,533 votes, or 25.4 percent. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP scored 1,496,687 votes, representing 6.23 percent of the total votes cast.
This low turnout might not be unconnected to the shenanigans that preceded the 2023 elections, where foot soldiers of former President Muhammadu Buhari did everything to frustrate the wishes of eligible voters by creating serious socio-economic distortions with dire consequences.
Even in 2015, total voter turnout was 43.65 percent. That year, according to INEC, there were 68,833,476 registered voters.
Muhammadu Buhari scored 15,424,921 votes, amounting to 53.96 percent, while Goodluck Jonathan scored 12,853,162 votes, amounting to 44.96 percent. This result was achieved largely because opposition parties came together to wrest power from the then-ruling PDP under President Jonathan. Genuine voter interest was evident in the declared results. Can we expect a re-enactment of this in 2027? This is seriously in doubt because most eligible Nigerians believe that their votes will not count. Nigerians are also more concerned about how to weather the storm of economic hardship currently ravaging the country today.
Hitherto, electoral records show that the highest voter turnout of 69.1 percent recorded during former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s second-term re-election in April 2003 cannot be relied upon because the election itself, conducted under Professor Maurice Iwu as INEC Chairman, was replete with rigging, violence and electoral fraud. Obasanjo’s handpicked successor, the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, failed the same electoral integrity test in 2007. Yar’Adua was adjudged to have recorded a similar 69.1 percent turnout — a result that he himself publicly acknowledged to be flawed. So, those two records are highly unreliable and discredited.
The high voter registration figures recorded by INEC under Amupitan are quite inspiring, but will they translate into massive turnout on election day? Will eligible Nigerians turn out in large numbers to let their votes speak for them? The turnout at political rallies, campaigns and marches has proved unreliable, judging by antecedents. We have seen several instances across the federation of orchestrated five-million-man marches for different high-profile candidates that evaporated to less than 500,000 votes on election day.
This same time-wasting political strategy by top politicians and their supporters has led to the wastage of hundreds of millions of naira through hiring crowds for such misleading rallies, marches and campaigns, only to fall flat in securing anticipated votes on election day. Some of these politicians are already enmeshed in such costly but unnecessary political marketing at the moment. These politicians and their supporters learn nothing from history.
Yiaga Africa’s National Voting Intentions Survey, NVIS 3.0, in its recently released report titled: “Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027,” gave this issue a scientific dimension. It indicated that Nigerians willing to vote have only a vague commitment, with the proportion of those “very likely” to vote dropping from 52% to 47%. It further stated clearly that only 41% are likely to vote and are very certain of their choice. If this report is indeed true, it already makes mincemeat of the freshly compiled INEC voter register regarding voter turnout. Indeed, the voters’ test of will lies ahead as the 2027 general election draws closer.
The final questions: Come 2027, can the genuine over-50 percent voter turnout of 2015 be replicated? If the coming together of the opposition 11 years ago made it possible, can the mass defection of governors to the ruling APC re-enact that credible 2015 turnout feat? Are the defectors sincere with the ruling party or just seeking temporary political refuge from the EFCC nightmare? The answer to especially the second question is complicated because the circumstances of the two periods are not the same. I rest my case for this week.
•Sanusi, former MD/CEO of Lagos State Signage and Advertisement Agency, is currently Managing Partner at AMS RELIABLE SOLICITORS. (WhatsApp only: 07011117777).