Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the ADC presidential candidate, has causedchaos among policy analysts by threatening to restore petrolsubsidy if he is elected president. Many have been asking: why is he trying to drag us back after we had finally crossed the Rubicon?By the way, bringing down the price of petrol looks great on paper. Many now see Atiku as the compassionate candidate who feels the pain of the masses. It is often said that the major problem with reforms in Nigeria is not the pain but the reversal after Nigerianshave persevered and are close to reaping the rewards. They just suffered for nothing, like a student who toiled to write an exam only to fail to submit the answer script.
I have been following Atiku’s political career closely for decadesand I can say for free that his threat to restore subsidy is just politics. Atiku is not stupid. He knows that while the policy might bring down pump prices temporarily and make people happy, the consequences could be fatal to the economy. If oil is $80 and hegives the refineries at $60 (“production side”, he said), the federation will be losing $20 in revenue on every barrel. This, by any measure, is huge. Federal, state and local governments will be instantly hit by a fiscal crisis. Subsidy is not to be confused with offering tax incentives to oil majors to invest in exploration. That one is for the future and it takes several years to yield dividends.
With revenue dropping as a result of Atiku’s crude subsidy, the three tiers of government will find it difficult to meet theirobligations. They entered into some of these obligations, such as road projects, as a result of the improved revenue from the subsidyremoval. So, I ask: will Atiku therefore restore minimum wage to N30,000 as it was before the subsidy removal? Or how are we going to lose so much revenue and still be able to sustain the new wage will? Are we going to do mass retrenchment or pay half salaries? Maybe we are going to take loans to pay salaries, as we have done before? In any case, we were borrowing to subsidisepetrol. NNPC used to import at N500/litre and sell at N185.
I do not imagine that Atiku does not know the implications of his “production subsidy”. If petrol price is reduced to N600, car owners will surely enjoy it but will transporters pass on the benefit in equal measure to commuters? In our history, it hardly happens — as President Goodluck Jonathan found out when he reduced petrolprice in 2015. And I can explain it. Petrol is not the only costincurred by transporters, even if it is the most recurring. There are expenses on spare parts, engine oil, tyres, police checkpoints, and daily levies. With Atiku’s cheaper petrol, transporters will seek tomaximise profit. It is human nature. As the African adage goes, even Alhaji Aliko Dangote is still chasing money.
Whenever President Bola Tinubu’s supporters grumble that despite the lower cost of CNG fuel, transporters have failed to reduce their fares, I always laugh in Yagba. If it used to cost them N70,000 worth of petrol to fill their tanks but they are now spending just N25,000 by using CNG, you have just given them a relief ofN45,000. They won’t reduce fares from N700 to N250. They will be nice to come down to N650. They have other things to spend the money on. I can see that Tinubu is still on the matter, promising to roll out 500 more CNG stations “to bring down fares”. Good luck. Will there be a task force to enforce it nationwide? Quote me: task force members will end up stupidly rich.
One other complication is the assumption that if refineries get crude oil at a subsidised price, they will refine it. Not so fast. Nigeria’shistory with subsidy suggests that diversion is inevitable. Refineries can make plenty of money by reselling the crude oil, so why go through the stress of refining it for small margins? They will just become oil traders and start smiling to the bank. You can threaten hell and send all the regulatory agencies after them and still achieve nothing. We were all witnesses to how the subsidy scam that enslaved Nigeria was perpetrated for decades. The illicit benefits were monstrous — more than enough to line everybody’s pockets at the expense of the federation.
There is also the little issue of smuggling, which has gone into a coma since the removal of subsidy. This, I must admit, has destroyed the economy of smugglers, who will absolutely love Atiku’s threat to return them to the “good old days”. Although westill sell the cheapest petrol in West Africa, the price gap with other countries has narrowed such that smuggling is no longer worth the tyre of a tanker. Restore subsidy and you will wake this darkeconomy from its slumber. We can send customs, the NSCDC, the EFCC, the police and soldiers to the border to stop smuggling but we will only get what we used to get in the past: collusion. Atiku knows this too well. He was a customs officer.
I can, in fact, bet my precious laptop that there is nothing I have said herein that is unknown to Atiku, who served as President Olusegun Obasanjo’s deputy for eight years at a time the government tried to eliminate petrol subsidy but was savaged by unionists and journalists (yes, I plead guilty as well). That is why I am so sure Atiku does not mean it when he promises to restore subsidy in whatever form if he is elected president. But he knows what he is doing. He is playing on the emotions of the ordinary voters, many of whom can only feel the heat of the reforms and are not in the mood to listen to any sermon on short-term pains and long-term gains. A hungry man is an angry man.
You can accuse Atiku of anything but you can never find him guilty of not knowing how to frame a political campaign. He is a master of it. He takes full advantage of trending sentiments. He has latelybeen very critical of the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC. He said Tinubu wanted to be his running mate in 2007 but he declined because he believes in a religiously balanced ticket. APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket is a put-off for many Christians and Atiku knows it well. However, I do not think he will benefit from the fall-out. Those opposed to the Muslim-Muslim ticket would, in my opinion, rather vote for Mr Peter Obi, the NDC presidential candidate. Why?Obi is more of a Christian than Atiku.
I almost forgot that Atiku wanted to be running mate to Bashorun MKO Abiola, a fellow Muslim, in 1993. In the first round of voting at the SDP presidential primary, Atiku placed third behind Abiola and Amb Babagana Kingibe, but Abiola did not secure enough delegate votes to be declared the winner. He and Kingibe headed fora run-off. Abiola reportedly did a deal with Atiku’s godfather, Maj-Gen Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, to support him in the run-off,promising to make Atiku his running mate. Yar’Adua delivered and Abiola won the ticket, but most SDP governors wanted Kingibe, the party chairman, as the running mate. They got their wish and Atikunaturally felt betrayed by Abiola.
If Abiola had picked Atiku, it would have been a Muslim-Muslim ticket. But Atiku talks about Muslim-Muslim ticket today as if he hated it since 1914. Abiola still ended up with a Muslim-Muslim ticket at a time religious tension was wild across the country. The Ibrahim Babangida regime, apparently in search of cheap loans, had enlisted Nigeria as a member of the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) in 1986. Christians kicked, alleging that it was Islamisation. There were notable religious riots in Kafanchan in 1987, Tafawa Balewa in 1991, Zango-Kataf in 1992, and Kano in 1991/92. Thousands died in the violence. The Muslim-Muslim ticket still won — with the support of millions of Christians.
In 2011, Atiku also took advantage of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s death to frame a sellable political campaign in the north. He argued that the region had not yet used its two-term turn. Atiku, Babangida, Gen Mohammed Gusau and Dr Bukola Sarka all wanted to challenge Jonathan for the PDP ticket. Atiku successfully rallied northern PDP elders to make him the consensus candidate of the region in the primary election. I told people then that the Atiku I knew was not an ethnic champion. He only wanted to take advantage of northern sentiments. Jonathan whipped him by 2,736 votes to 805 — with help from the north, though on the understanding that he would do only one term.
As if to prove my point that it was all a game, Atiku sought to be president again in 2023 after the north had done eight years. His new argument was that it was the northern arm of the APC that did eight years; the northern wing of the PDP had only done three years through Yar’Adua. Atiku saw a glorious chance and thought the north would use its numbers to make him president, but Tinubu defeated him. And now that Tinubu’s fans are saying that the south must do its eight years, the petrol subsidy “hardship” has offeredAtiku another opening to exploit. But I am cocksure he will not restore subsidy if he wins. He is definitely not an economic illiterate. Fellow Nigerians, it is all politics.
AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…
MAD IN NIGERIA
Another “fake agency” has been discovered by the ICPC. This one is named “National Brands Development and Made in Nigeria Special Project Office”. President Tinubu immediately ordered the arrest of Mr Nwabueze Buchi George, the national coordinator of the agency, and suspended three permanent secretaries in the Office of The Secretary to the Government of the Federation (OSGF). George has, however, produced a letter of appointment which he said was issued to him by the OSGF. The OSGF again! When all this drama is over, I hope we will come to the conclusion that there is a well-oiled racket in government. Let’s hope the real culprits will ultimately go to prison. Mad.
GOOD NIGHT, DOTUN
I woke up on Wednesday to the devastating news that DotunOladipo, publisher of Eagle Online, had died. I could not process it.I was totally blank. A few hours before his death, Dotun had sent me a WhatsApp message. He was said to have started feeling unwell while at the office, drove himself to the hospital and died moments later. What a tragedy! Dotun, who died at 56, was such a wonderful soul. I never heard anyone say anything bad about him.He showed me enormous support and embarrassed me with respect. He started his online newspaper three years before TheCable and helped us settle in. My thoughts and prayers are with his widow, Taiwo, and their daughters. Adieu.
SLEEP TIGHT, DOLLY
Dolly Rebecca Parton Dean, the iconic American singer, songwriter and actor, died on Tuesday at 80 after a brief battle with cancer. Her younger sister had prepared our minds for this moment when she asked for prayers for the legend last year. I grew up listening to three great country music singers: Don Williams, Kenny Rogers and Parton. Now, all of them are gone. Dolly Parton was a sweetsoul, according to those who had the privilege of meeting her. Her life was filled with humour and humility. She was a great entrepreneur and philanthropist — and one of the greatest women who ever lived, firmly promoting her gender without making a fuss. We will always love her. Goodbye.
NO COMMENT
Many supporters of Mr Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), were disappointed when he said he would not restore petrol subsidy. This just shows you how difficult it is to have a reasonable engagement around policy issues in Nigeria. If there is a problem with the way the savings are being spent, Obi said, the right thing to do is to redirect the gains to the benefit of Nigerians. It should not lead to the revival of subsidy. I thought he made a good point there, but many of his diehard supporters are unhappy, going by the comments I read on social media. One of them even said he suspected Obi was working for President Bola Tinubu. Wonderful.