This is authorial licence. I am writing about a subject on which I have no particular interest, by which I mean that I’m not rooting for any candidate in next year’s presidential election. However, I am fascinated by how the opposition parties have been “strategising” to unseat President Bola Tinubu, yet doing so in fits and spurts, utterly discombobulated. With only four months to January’s presidential poll, opposition leaders have failed to agree on a single candidate, despite admitting that only a united opposition could defeat President Tinubu. Well, though utterly disinterested, I’m offering a tried and tested advice on the way out of the opposition’s acute predicament!
But, first, we must understand the nature of the challenge. In May, I wrote in a piece titled “2027: A divided opposition will aid Tinubu’s return” (Vanguard, May 7, 2026). I believe that, with a fractured opposition, President Tinubu will be re-elected next year, although he might win with a smaller vote share than he did in 2023, when he secured just 37 per cent of the vote. Of course, for Tinubu, “a win is a win”, even if he gets just 30 per cent, which, provided it’s the highest, will get him re-elected under Nigeria’s plurality electoral system. Truth is, Nigeria’s plurality and first-past-the-post voting system allows Tinubu to exploit a divided opposition and win a narrow victory, ruthlessly deploying wedge issues and state resources; after all, in his words, “all is fair in politics”. Although a united opposition is not an ironclad guarantee of victory against an incumbent, it could be decisive, as we saw in 2015, when a unified opposition under an insurgent APC beat the then ruling party, PDP.
Drawing on that experience, leading opposition politicians have made attempts, albeit futile, to unite rival parties ahead of 2027. Atiku Abubakar tried to rally opposition parties under the African Democratic Congress, ADC, to create a united, powerful front. In an interview on Arise TV in May, Atiku said: “What I know is that with a coalition candidate facing Bola Tinubu, Bola Tinubu is dead on arrival.” Continuing, he added: “Look at the leadership of the coalition (ADC), if each and every one of them brings their zone to electoral victory, where will Bola stand?” He was referring to Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi and other heavyweights then in ADC. Earlier, on April 25, at the Opposition Political Parties National Summit held in Ibadan, Oyo State, the opposition parties, including ADC, issued a communiqué, saying: “We will work towards fielding one Presidential Candidate for the 2027 elections.” But before the ink had dried, ADC splintered as Obi and Kwankwaso decamped to the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC. Of course, with Atiku determined to be the party’s coalition candidate and Obi vowing that “I will be on the ballot in 2027”, the idea of a consensus presidential candidate in ADC was dead in the water, ab initio!
Yet, pragmatic opposition politicians continued to push for a coalition against President Tinubu. Donald Duke, a former governor of Cross River State and the presidential candidate of People’s Redemption Party, PRP, repeatedly advocated for a united opposition to face President Tinubu in 2027, saying that, apart from having everything skewed in his favour as an incumbent, “Bola Tinubu is not an average politician,” adding metaphorically: “You don’t go to fight a lion who also has horns.” Salihu Lukman, a former member of the House of Representatives and former chieftain of APC and ADC, also made passionate calls for a united opposition. The latest drive towards opposition coalition led to the “G100 Summit” held in Abuja on August 31, and attended by six opposition parties: ADC, NDC, PRP, a faction of PDP, Social Democratic Party, SDP, and Allied Peoples Movement, APM. Their aim? To strategise on how to defeat President Tinubu in 2027. But how? Well, their strategy no longer includes producing a sole candidate, but it remains hazy and doomed.
So, what’s the way out? Well, it’s called tactical voting. The aim of tactical voting would be to deny President Tinubu victory in the first round and push him to a second round. Under section 134 (2) (a) and (b) of the 1999 Constitution, where there are more than two candidates in a presidential election, a candidate is deemed to have won if “(a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election; and (b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.” Nigeria does not operate a majoritarian electoral system, based on an absolute majority, where a candidate must get over 50 per cent to win in the first round; if not, the two candidates with the highest votes would go to the second round. Under Nigeria’s plurality and first-past-the-post voting system, a candidate can secure just 30 per cent of the votes cast and still become president, provided the 30 per cent is the highest in the election. It is a perverse electoral system that produces an illegitimate minority government!
But despite the perverseness of the plurality and first-past-the-post voting system, it could force candidates into a second round. According to Duverger’s Law, a political science theory, in first-past-the-post voting systems like the US and the UK, most citizens don’t waste their votes by voting for parties that can’t win; rather, they vote for the opposition party they believe can defeat the incumbent they don’t like; it’s called “lesser-evil” voting. The UK is famous for tactical voting. For instance, in 1997, a group successfully launched a campaign known as GROT (Get Rid of Them) to mobilise voters to vote tactically to prevent the Conservative Party from winning a fifth term in office. Since then, various organisations, such as Tactical-Vote-UK, have emerged to encourage tactical voting in British elections.
So, how does this apply to Nigeria? Well, it means that the opposition parties, if they really want to defeat Tinubu next year, should encourage their supporters to vote tactically. In any state where their votes are significant but not sufficient to make a difference to their victory, they should ask their supporters to vote for the party likely to defeat Tinubu in that state and support that party with polling agents and surveillance/monitoring to ensure the votes count. Unfortunately, Nigeria is not used to tactical voting. For instance, in 2023, APC governorship candidates might have lost in some states if there were tactical voting. Take Kaduna State. APC got 47.20 per cent, PDP 46.47 per cent and Labour 3.77 per cent. Surely, with the razor-thin margin between APC and PDP, Labour’s tactical support might have helped PDP win the state. Or take Ogun State, APC got 42.83 per cent, PDP 40.67 per cent and ADC 14.69 per cent. With a pact and tactical voting, ADC could have helped PDP win the state, assuming PDP was the lesser evil! However, last month, tactical voting worked in Osun State, where some parties asked their supporters to vote for Governor Ademola Adeleke, who won!
Now, if tactical voting pushes President Tinubu into a run-off, a de facto opposition coalition would emerge. The run-off would be Tinubu vs Obi or Tinubu vs Atiku. In either scenario, if the opposition truly believes a Tinubu second term would be calamitous for Nigeria, they will rally behind Obi or Atiku! Those who think a presidential run-off is impossible in Nigeria should remember 1979 when Shehu Shagari won a plurality of 33.77 per cent but fell short of outrightly winning 25 per cent in two-thirds of 19 states. Had the Supreme Court not “creatively” interpreted “two-thirds of 19 states”, Shagari would have been forced into a run-off. Well, 2027 will be as keenly contested as 2023 and 1979. However, although ethnicity, religion, vote-buying and state coercion bedevil Nigerian presidential elections, tactical voting can matter decisively in 2027 if the opposition can successfully deploy it. Authorial licence, I admit, but it’s my disinterested advice to a beleaguered, rudderless opposition!
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