“History does not repeat itself; man does” – Professor Barbara Tuchmann, Harvard University Historian.
‘Beyond Oil: Delta maps new course at investment summit’ – VANGUARD, August 7, 2026.
In the past, the announcement of a state Economic Summit would have induced me to pack my traveling bags, and go there, whether invited or not. As an economist and columnist, economic development anywhere is one of my passions. But, I gave up, after attending over a dozen – North and South – and observing how quickly they degenerated into another expensive and wasteful talk-shop organised by governments. Eminent foreigners and Nigerians are dragged in; powerful presentations are made; occasionally, a post-Summit Committee is established to drive the development programme. There the matter ends – until another governor realizes that money can be made and given to accolades by organizing another Economic Summit going nowhere.
IS DELTA TRAVELLING A FAMILIAR ROAD
“Those who do not remember history are condemned to repeat it” – George Santayana, 1863-1952
If there is a state which should have been highly industrialized, Delta State is one. Military and civilian governors have ruled the state for various lengths of time without making any impression on the state’s barren industrial landscape.
Delta State has organized Economic Summits before. DELTA WITHOUT OIL was the theme of former Governor Uduaghan’s Economic Summit – which, as usual, was star-studded in terms of the quality of speakers, facilitators and special guests.
It ended with a communiqué calling for the rapid industrialization of the state to end over-reliance on federal allocations based on crude oil.
It is doubtful if the final document received two glances before the government became history in 2015. Below was an article published in October 2007 before the Delta Economic Summit took place in Asaba:
DELTA WITHOUT OIL: LISTEN TO THE PROPHET,
DELE SOBOWALE.
17th October 2007
Wonders never cease! On Tuesday, October 16, 2007, I opened the VANGUARD and, on page 39, was an article titled: DELTA WITHOUT OIL written by Emmanuel Uduaghan. And had the article not been credited to Dr Uduaghan, Governor of Delta State, I would have thought there might be two Uduaghans… because this article was against the run of play. Here is governor of one of the largest oil producing regions, not only in Nigeria, but also in the world, boldly coming out to think ahead…thinking the unthinkable. Hitherto, the emphasis had been on getting a bigger slice of the oil revenue… But, Governor Uduaghan has gone far ahead of the rest of us by asking us to start the process of investing in those areas that are more sustainable for our future growth and development. I could not agree more with Dr Uduaghan and I pray that he will use his God-given position of leadership to start the process of putting Delta State on the path of progress that will in the future not depend solely on oil. Permit me to just add a few more reasons to the list the governor has provided in his excellent essay to prove his point if not for anything else but to register my unflinching support for this crusade…
BRIEF HISTORY OF OIL PRICES
Today, Tuesday, October 16, 2007, it [oil price] is at an all-time record high of $85 per barrel. Oil producers, who incidentally are also some of the least technologically advanced nations, experience bank accounts bursting at the seams. Most people in those countries are excited, but the more discerning are becoming alarmed. The latter are worried not because they are less patriotic but because they are aware of historical precedents which might be repeating themselves.
“Back in 1973, immediately after the Yom Kippur War between Israel and the Arab countries contiguous to it… the oil producing Arab countries teamed up with Nigeria and other non-Arab nation to form the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, aimed at controlling the production and price of crude oil. The measure succeeded in the short run. But, it backfired in the long run. Within weeks, the price of a barrel of crude which hitherto had hovered around 70 cents per barrel skyrocketed to over $3 per barrel. Within three years it was over $18 per barrel. Suddenly, the oil producing countries had more money than they had the capacity to handle; they also induced global inflation on an unprecedented scale; factories closed down in the manufacturing west and Japan, unemployment rose drastically. The G7 countries i.e. (USA, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Canada, and Italy), the world’s seven strongest economies at the time, led by the USA, regarded this as the economic equivalent of war, the objective of which was to ensure that the USA reduced its dependence on imported crude oil. Before long, throughout the developed world, a multiple prong attack was launched on the oil producing countries; It took only a few years for the developed countries to have most of the funds recycled back to them through rising cost of imports and white elephant projects which the oil producers were lured into establishing.
For several years, from Gowon to Murtala Muhammed, Obasanjo and Shagari, the price of crude inched steadily upwards providing the false comfort that we were on an eternally upward moving escalator. That was until about three years into Shagari’s administration when the escalator reversed itself and started moving downwards. By the time Buhari and Babangida came to power, the price of crude had dived below $10 per barrel. But, the nation meanwhile had developed an appetite that only $18 to $20 crude could satisfy. By 1986, we were a debtor nation. Today, we are again living with a false sense of security. And, it is that complacency that Governor Uduaghan is warning against. And we ignore the governor only at our own peril.
OUR PRESENT PREDICAMENT
Africans in general and Nigerian leaders in particular learn very little from history. That explains why we fail to recognize wars when we are engaged in them and we end up losing. The price of crude now approaching and which might even exceed the $100 per barrel mark represents to the insightful, like Governor Uduaghan, the fact that another round of global economic conflict centred on oil might be underway. And as in the past we are currently winning. But, unless we experience a great paradigm shift, we would again in a few years be back where we started – at the bottom of global economic ladder.
And the reasons for the pessimism are not hard to discover. From 1999 to 2007, over N16 trillion was collected and distributed by the three tiers of government in Nigeria. That was more money than the all the governments of the country put together from 1960 to 1999. Yet, we have very little to show for it. Although, Britain and other countries that were the recipients of looted funds from Nigeria benefited a lot. Once again, as in the 1970s, the windfall of dollars is already being recycled back to the developed world by fraudulent public officials.
It is in order to break this vicious cycle that Governor Uduaghan and people who think like him are urging the people of Delta State to start preparing for a future without oil.
Furthermore, even the most optimistic projections place our oil reserves at no more than 40 years at best. 40 years is nothing in a nation’s history. So we must develop a vision for hundred, two hundred or more years. We might not even have 40 years of oil because technological advancement might have rendered oil less valuable by then. The internal combustion engine which accounts for a great percentage of oil demand might be altered. As it is an increasing percentage of cars are running on other fuels and rising oil prices will only make them more attractive as alternatives to petrol. All the signs point to a future in which the world will depend less and less on petrol or crude oil. Thus for countries depending on earnings from crude, planning for a future without oil is an indispensable survival strategy”.
PREDICTION
The article ended with a prediction that in 20 years, Delta State would most probably still be dependent on monthly federal allocations; and very little industrialization would have occurred. The just concluded Delta Summit vindicated my prediction. It would have been unnecessary if the Uduaghan Summit had not ended up as a waste of money.
HOW TO AVOID MAKING SAME MISTAKE
“Who takes advice shall never fare the worse” – Geoffrey Chaucer, 1342-1400
The recently concluded Summit runs the risk of becoming just another waste of time, effort, opportunity and money unless it departs from the familiar road leading nowhere. Speeches however expertly delivered by world class experts have never translated to actual economic development. Long after the glare of bright lights, and well-attired participants have departed, the tedious work that will transform rhetoric to reality starts. It is inevitably done by unknown individuals, working long hours, with shirts rolled up, in order to actualize the national goal. I had a useful one-on-one meeting with one of the toilers on Malaysia’s VISION 2020 during the National Economic Summit Group programme of 1992. He educated me on how the nation’s VISION 2020 was organized and is being coordinated to avoid mistakes. None of the leaders of sub-groups was a famous person; each was a technocrat with a clear goal to achieve in a period of time.
There is more advice to give; but space would not allow…
•Follow me on Facebook @ Israel Biola
The post The 2026 Delta Economic and Investment Summit, by Dele Sobowale appeared first on Vanguard News.