By Adeola Akinremi
The future of Nigeria has always been a subject of debate. Throughout our history, the conversation has always centered on great leadership, the economy and the kind of country we want Nigeria to become. The kind of tension that comes with this debate is not new in our history. It is because the hopes and worries of many Nigerians are inseparable from the fate of the country.
But this debate over the years bears evidence that Nigerians want a country that works for everyone. Yet, I have watched with growing concern how hard it is to separate sentiments from substance, especially now that we’re in an election cycle.
And part of the sadness is that arguments advanced by political actors too often become the headlines of major newspapers, without clear-eyed examination of the evidence.
That’s exactly the kind of clear-eyed exercise the Nigeria’s scenario building team attempted twenty years ago.That leaves me with the impression that reporters these days are not doing enough to examine the claims behind the story before the headlines are cast, interrogate the motives behind them, and demand evidence before amplifying them.
In November 2006, I had a rare opportunity to work with about 35 talented Nigerians to build scenarios for the future of Nigeria, guided by eminent leaders including Father Matthew Hassan Kukah, Frank Nweke Jr., Ifueko Omoigui-Okauru, Pat Utomi, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, Mansur Ahmed, Morin Desalu, Adhiambo Odaga, Olugbenga Adesida, Peter Wilson, Olusegun Adeniyi, Mosunmola Layode and others serving on the Board or in African Leadership Institute team. It was at the invitation of LEAP Africa, a civic organization founded by Ndidi Nwunneli, the former Chief Executive Officer of ONE Campaign.
The team met over a period of time and crafted a set of four possible scenarios for Nigeria by 2025: Parambulator; Shine Your Eye; Jaga Jaga Republic and We Don Win.
The team made it clear that Nigeria needs fundamental change, stressing the need to make risky, quantum leaps to transform Nigerian society and the economy. The scenario-building team delivered a stark warning that “small, linear steps using traditional approaches, even if the steps are in the right direction, will not be enough.”
The use of scenario methodology in exploring national development and leadership issues demonstrates the importance of thinking beyond the present to confront difficult choices and shape a more ambitious future for Nigeria.
Today, we are in 2026, twenty years after that exercise. Nigeria has moved through cycles of political promises and debates. Yet the questions raised by those scenarios remain remarkably relevant. They offer a useful lens through which to examine what President Bola Tinubu’s long game could mean for Nigeria and, more importantly, what choices today could shape the country’s future.
According to the African Leadership Institute, which partnered with LEAP Africa, “the overarching thrust of the scenarios is that Nigeria can be transformed. The scenarios highlight the critical role of the people, lay out the choices before Nigerians and outline how the actions or inactions could shape the future.”
A scenario is not a prediction. The purpose is to construct plausible futures and then work backward to understand what decisions today make those futures more or less likely.
What happens when a country begins a difficult reform program but changes leadership before the reform cycle has matured?
What might Nigeria look like in 2030 or 2031 if these reforms are sustained?
Yes, the ideal outcome for Nigeria is not necessarily eight years of one man. It is eight years of institutional continuity. But given Nigeria’s history of policy reversals, which political arrangement is more likely to produce that continuity?
Indeed, one presidential candidate has said in an interview with Arise T.V that despite the reform, “Nigeria is heading in the wrong direction today. I just need to reverse it.” Will policy reversal pay or pain Nigeria in the long run?
Nigeria has previously imagined its future through scenarios, and those scenarios offer a framework for thinking about today’s political choice. Arguably, what Tinubu is doing matters for the outcome of a stronger economy and a better country.
Take, for instance, the constitutional change to decentralize the country’s police force. For decades, state police have remained one of the most contentious questions in Nigeria’s security debate. Now, the Tinubu administration has pushed the issue from a long-running political argument into a concrete constitutional path.
And with the state police on course, Nigeria can turn that debate into an institution that works, while putting the safeguards in place to prevent abuse.
The significance goes beyond the creation of another layer of policing. Clearly, state police would change the architecture through which security is delivered, bringing policing closer to the communities it is intended to serve.
Of course, it is equally important not to overlook the cooperation between the executive and the legislature in moving several consequential constitutional reform bills forward under Tinubu. From Ghali Umar Na’Abba, Aminu Bello Masari, Patricia Etteh, Dimeji Bankole, Aminu Tambuwal, Yakubu Dogara, and Femi Gbajabiamila to the current Speaker, Tajudeen Abbas, the House of Representatives Speakers have often been at loggerheads with the president on reform bills – even where the party controls both the legislature and the presidency. Reforms require more than presidential ambition; they require a mission-driven and political leadership capable of building consensus and creating institutions that can carry reforms beyond the tenure of the president who initiated them.
Think of it this way: Nigeria is like an older car with a carburetor. It uses extra fuel during startup. Turning the car on and off for every stop wastes energy.
A country undergoing difficult reforms also pays a cost during the transition. The gains are not always immediately visible, and the system may not yet be running efficiently when political pressure begins to build. But repeatedly switching off the engine and starting again can waste the progress already made.
Nigeria must choose its next direction. It can remain in “Parambulator” or move toward “We Don Win.” The latter, in my estimation, is where Tinubu’s long game leads.
With that, the long game comes full circle.
Adeola Akinremi is a public policy advisor, strategic communications expert, and the founder and CEO of Hintells, an AI-powered intelligence platform serving businesses and diplomatic missions in Washington, D.C. He has extensive multilateral experience advising on governance, economic and policy reforms across global markets and can be reached at: adeola@hintells.com