Mr Frank Olize, the legendary broadcaster, was one of those who made NTA tick in the 1980s and 1990s. He once travelled around the country in search of the “common man”. It is a term we use freely and frequently — especially pertaining to a person’s economic status — but it can be flexible and contentious. Almost everybody Olize interviewed, including Chief MKO Abiola, claimed to be the “common man”! At the time, Abiola was one of the richest Nigerians and a top philanthropist who, interestingly, did quite a lot for the “common man” in almost every state of the federation with his charity. Abiola would go on to win the June 12, 1993 presidential election, although it was annulled.
The issue of the “common man” came up again recently when Dr Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), took questions from Channels TV’s Seun Okinbaloye. Asked why the “common man” was not yet enjoying the gains of President Bola Tinubu’s reforms despite improvement in macro-economic indices, Adedeji listed a number of benefits: the doubling of the minimum wage, the increased allocations to the 36 states and 774 LGAs, the fiscal turnaround that has enabled prompt payment of salaries and settlement of the arrears by the states, the millions of students benefitting from NELFUND, and the jobs created by increased spending on infrastructure.
Adedeji repeatedly asked: are these beneficiaries not the “common man”? Who then is the “common man” not benefitting from economic growth and improved revenue? Are companies experiencing a boom in the stock market not employers of labour? Are tens of thousands of Nigerians daily engaged in the construction of the Lagos-Calabar coastal road and the Sokoto-Badagry expressway, among other major roads, not “common men”? He was forceful and emphatic in his responses to the questions, citing data as evidence that the economy has made encouraging progress with the reforms. He pooh-poohed the claim that Tinubu was practising voodoo economics.
Whenever I have had to comment on Tinubu’s hard-hitting economic reforms, I always concede that they were inevitable and necessary, but I also highlight the impact on the ordinary Nigerian, whom we generally refer to as the “common man”. In other words, while the negative impact of the reforms is felt by every Nigerian, those at the bottom are the most affected. As I previously argued, it is impossible to remove petrol subsidy and liberalise the forex market without pains. A presidential candidate who promises “reforms without tears” is like a cook promising to make an omelette “without breaking eggs”. Let’s stop fooling around: economic reforms always come with hardship.
And while two years of intensive pain might have given way to relative macro-economic stability as we can see from some major indices (the currency that was on freefall has stabilised, inflation rate that was heading for the moon has calmed down, and the financial markets are back on their feet), the argument is that at the micro-economic level, or on the streets, the people are struggling and are not smiling. It is true that revenue is growing and the three tiers of government are sharing more money, but how can the “common man”, who should be at the centre of it all, get a piece of the action? Hence, the debate we should be having is how best to ease the pain on the masses.
My interest today is the situation of the “common man” (and “common woman”, I must finally clarify). How can their lot be improved — and quickly? Adedeji, while pointing out that the population of out-of-school children has dropped by nearly two million citing UNICEF estimates, said although the poverty rate has increased in the last three years, “it could have been worse without the reforms”. Put differently, the cancer would have progressed to the next stage without surgery and chemotherapy. Unfortunately, surgery and chemotherapy are painful and uncomfortable — but most cancer patients will still prefer to receive treatment than to leave the disease untouched.
We are now at the stage of post-surgery recovery. True, foreign currency reserves have grown from a net of about $4 billion in 2023 to nearly $52 billion as a result of the forex reforms. Yes, capital importation moved from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion. Agreed, crude oil production is on the upward swing. Indeed, we have become net exporters of petroleum products for the first time in decades, thanks largely to the Dangote Refinery and the naira-for-crude policy. And, sure, the NGX market cap has grown from N30.36 trillion to N161 trillion within three years. But the costs of transportation, feeding and housing are still digging a hole in the pockets of the ordinary citizens.
Adedeji spoke about wage increase, jobs generated by infrastructural projects, student loans, regular payment of salaries, and the like, as concrete proof of the positive impact of the reforms, but as important as these examples may be, I would say we still have a long way to go in tackling poverty. For a start, reforms are just the beginning of an economic turnaround. They are like a foundation. The lasting benefits need to surface in improved production, chiefly in sectors that can create jobs and reduce poverty. All these will not happen in three years, but we have to start from somewhere. Jobs cannot create themselves. Investors need vital incentives to be able to create the opportunities.
I disagree with some of Adedeji’s takes (for instance, he downplayed the cost of running government and dismissed criticisms of the presidential jets and convoy). However, I cannot but agree with him, in toto, that states and LGAs play a key role in improving the lives of the “common man” and should utilise increased revenue to improve the lot of their citizens. Moreover, how many states have solid incentives to trigger productive activities, such as manufacturing? How many actively incentivise small and medium-scale businesses, which provide the most jobs in any country? Without investments, the majority of ordinary Nigerians cannot partake fully in eating the fruits of reform.
Economists use various metrics to measure poverty: the one-dollar-a-day threshold (income), multidimensional deprivations (quality of life), asset ownership and so on. I have always been sceptical about how per capita income is calculated — dividing the total income of a country by its total population. Measuring averages does not account for the massive gaps between the rich and the poor and can paint an unreliable picture. As a student of human development, I always favour measuring poverty by the well-being index: access to healthcare, education, clean water, sanitation, electricity, and roads. This is the multidimensional poverty that affects most of the Nigerian masses.
Breaking the cycle of poverty, as I have been arguing from the days of President Olusegun Obasanjo, is not the job of the federal government alone. Adedeji, a first-class graduate of accounting, highlighted this by pointing to the responsibilities of the subnational governments. The federal government handles the macro-economic policies but the states and LGAs get their own shares of federation allocation, generate internal revenues, and handle many constitutional items that can tackle poverty effectively. When multidimensional poverty rises, it is mostly an indictment of the subnational governments rather than the federal government. We tend to downplay this fact.
If the average Nigerian can have access to quality treatment at primary healthcare centres and general hospitals, receive quality primary and secondary education, get clean water to drink, commute on a network of good roads, and enjoy electricity in their households, the incidence of poverty will reduce significantly. Developed countries understand this fact. That is why they pour their energies into providing access so that the poorest of the poor will not be left behind. All the data about improved revenue collection, re-energised oil sector, GDP growth, capital importation would be sweeter if all tiers of government deliver the benefits of the reforms to the “common man”.
Adedeji’s interview got on the wrong side of those who think his bluntness was insensitive, but that is an argument to be pursued another day. We can go on arguing over macro-economics and micro-economics. We can debate the data from the World Bank/IMF and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). These debates did not start today and will not end tomorrow. In all, my reading of Adedeji’s arguments is that we should acknowledge the progress that has been made so far rather that claim it is all doom. Fair point. But the lived experiences of Nigerians cannot be discounted and should inspire more urgent policy actions at all levels to put a big smile on the face of the “common man”.
AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…
CLERICAL ERROR
Sheikh Sani Yahaya Jingir, the national chairman of the Council of Ulama Jama’atu Izalatul Bid’ah Wa’Ikamatis, created a storm with his rhetoric over the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket, urging Muslims to show their strength in numbers by voting for the pairing again. At 76, when he should be acting like an elder, peace builder and promoter of national unity, the cleric is pursuing the path of plain bigotry. But he is ill-informed, with due respect. The Muslim-Muslim pairing won in 1993 and 2023 not because only Muslims voted for it, as the cleric obviously thinks; a simple study of the voting patterns will confirm that many Christian-majority constituencies also supported it. Ignorance.
COUP LYRICS
Colonel Mohammed Ma’aji, the alleged leader of a botched military coup to overthrow President Bola Tinubu, says his plot was motivated by “patriotism” and not personal ambition, according to his court statement as reported by Premium Times. Ma’aji said his concerns were shaped by economic hardship, poor governance and the declining welfare of Nigerians — lyrics we love to hear. Anyone conversant with our history of coups must be amused. Every coup speech is about patriotism and poor governance. It always wins public sympathy. The reality really dawns on us when the coup leaders get power and we start weeping and wailing and moaning and gnashing our teeth. Fantasy.
FALCONS AND FALCONERS
The Super Falcons of Nigeria have hit an all-time low — dropping out of the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations (WAFCON) in the quarter-finals and also failing to qualify for the Women’s World Cup for the first time ever. Nobody could have predicted this sorry pass just two years ago when the team won their 10th WAFCON title in Morocco. It is one of two things: either the rest of Africa is finally catching up with us or we are going down. But there is also another fact of life: there is no such thing as “forever champions”. Empires rise and empires fall. Rather than keep sulking, I would suggest we do a comprehensive review for a reset and a restart. Where did the rain begin to beat us? Reflection.
NO COMMENT
Days to the Osun state governorship election, Senator Francis Fadahunsi (Osun east senatorial district) brazenly directed his supporters to kill members of Accord. “From now on, whenever you see Accord members, kill them,” the APC senator appeared to say in Yoruba in a viral video. If you think it is only teenagers on social media that are unhinged, you are making a mistake: Fadahunsi is 74. He is still promoting impunity and bloodshed at his age. His media team tried to spin his words, saying he meant “kill Accord members with votes”. Yeah, right. But Fadahunsi said: “I authorise you to kill them. They have wives and children too.” Using votes to kill wives and children? Hahahaha…