By Adegboyega Adeleye
The Super Eagles suffered a major setback in their bid to qualify for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations, AFCON after losing 3-0 to Guinea-Bissau in Bissau on Tuesday.
The defeat leaves Nigeria with three points from two matches, while Guinea-Bissau have six points from their opening two games and sit top of Group L.
However, Nigeria’s qualification hopes are still alive, with four matches remaining and 12 points available.
The Super Eagles now face a crucial run of fixtures, with the November double-header against Tanzania likely to play an important role in determining their chances of reaching the tournament, which will be hosted by Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.
Here are five things Nigeria must do to keep their AFCON 2027 qualification hopes alive.
1. Beat Tanzania in both November matches
Nigeria’s immediate priority will be the two matches against Tanzania during the November international window.
CAF has confirmed that Matchdays 3 and 4 will be played between November 9 and 17, 2026, although the specific dates for Nigeria’s matches have not yet been confirmed.
The Super Eagles currently have three points from two matches. Winning both games against Tanzania would take Nigeria to nine points.
Dropping points against Tanzania would not automatically eliminate Nigeria, but it would reduce their margin for error and make the remaining fixtures more important.
2. Beat Madagascar in March
Nigeria’s third remaining fixture will be away to Madagascar during the March 2027 international window.
The Super Eagles opened their campaign with a 2-1 comeback victory over Madagascar, and another three points against the same opponent would take Nigeria to 12 points if they also win both games against Tanzania.
CAF has scheduled the final two rounds of the qualifiers for March 22-30, 2027.
A victory over Madagascar would put Nigeria in a strong position heading into the final match of the group.
3. Get maximum points against Guinea-Bissau
Nigeria’s final group match is against Guinea-Bissau in March.
The Djurtus currently lead Group L after winning their first two matches, including the 3-0 victory over Nigeria.
The return fixture will therefore be particularly important.
If Nigeria win their three preceding matches, they would enter the final game with 12 points. A victory over Guinea-Bissau would take the Super Eagles to 15 points.
That would give Nigeria the clearest possible route to finishing above their rivals, although 15 points is not an automatic qualification mark because the final standings will depend on results involving the other teams.
4. Improve the goal difference
Nigeria’s 3-0 defeat in Bissau has also damaged their goal difference.
This could become important if teams finish level on points.
CAF’s regulations state that the first tiebreakers between two teams level on points are points obtained in matches between the teams, followed by goal difference and away goals in those direct encounters. Overall goal difference and goals scored are considered later in the ranking process.
Nigeria therefore need to avoid conceding heavily in their remaining matches while also taking their chances in front of goal.
The return meeting with Guinea-Bissau could be especially significant because Nigeria lost the first encounter by three goals.
5. Finish above Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar
The most important objective is simple: Nigeria must finish above the other non-host teams in Group L.
With Tanzania already guaranteed a place at AFCON 2027 as one of the tournament’s co-hosts, only one additional qualification spot is available from Group L.
The current standings after two matches are:
- Guinea-Bissau — 6 points
- Nigeria — 3 points
- Tanzania — 3 points
- Madagascar — 0 points
Nigeria have four matches remaining, meaning 12 points are still available.
Winning all four would take the Super Eagles to 15 points, but Nigeria can still qualify with fewer points depending on the results of Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar and Tanzania.
Nigeria’s remaining fixtures
Nigeria have four matches left in the qualifying campaign:
- Nigeria vs Tanzania — November 2026
- Tanzania vs Nigeria — November 2026
- Madagascar vs Nigeria — March 2027
- Nigeria vs Guinea-Bissau — March 2027
What CAF says about a tie
CAF’s published regulations state that if two teams are level on points at the end of the group matches, the ranking is determined, in order, by:
- The greatest number of points obtained in matches between the two teams;
- The best goal difference in those matches;
- The greatest number of away goals scored in the direct encounters;
- Goal difference in all group matches;
- The greatest number of goals scored in all group matches;
- A drawing of lots by the Organising Committee.
Nigeria’s 3-0 defeat in Bissau therefore gives Guinea-Bissau the advantage in the first direct meeting. The return fixture in Nigeria remains to be played, so the final head-to-head position cannot yet be determined.
The bottom line
Nigeria’s AFCON 2027 hopes are still very much alive, but the 3-0 defeat has significantly reduced the Eagles’ margin for error.
The Super Eagles have four matches and 12 points available. Winning all four would take them to 15 points and give them the clearest route to finishing above their rivals. However, there is no fixed qualifying points total at this stage. Nigeria ultimately need to finish above Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar.
The immediate task is therefore to maximise the points from the two November matches against Tanzania, beat Madagascar in March and then aim to take maximum points from Guinea-Bissau in the final fixture.
With Tanzania already guaranteed a place at AFCON 2027, Nigeria’s battle is for the single remaining qualifying spot in Group L.
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