APC Primary: Can Tinubu repeat 10.99m votes in 2027 polls?

By Clifford Ndujihe,  Politics Editor

Yesterday, President Bola Tinubu won the presidential primaries of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, in style.

In the party’s direct primaries requiring all registered members to participate, Tinubu amassed 10,999,162 votes while Mr Stanley Osifo, his lone challenger, trailed distantly with 16,503 votes.

The party currently has 12,643,316 registered members

If the president can get about 11m votes from registered APC members, his camp boasted last night that he will get more from over 100m expected to be registered as voters by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, for the 2027 general polls.

In 2023, the APC claimed that it had over 41 million registered members. However, at the poll proper, Tinubu scored 8,794,753 votes, which means, excluding other Nigerians, more than 80 per cent of APC members did not vote for him. 

Looking at the figures, if APC had over 41 million members in 2023 but now has 12.6m members after recent waves of defections into it from opposition parties, it means those in charge have a lot of questions to answer.

In a chat with journalists recently, APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda admitted that were glitches in the party’s online registration process in 2023 and now the matter had been addressed.

Tinubu’s presidential primaries victory,  dress rehearsal for 2027 — Yilwatda

With excitement, Yilwatda boasted that Tinubu would record a resounding victory on January 16, 2027 and retain his seat for another four years giving what transpired at the presidential primaries across the country.,

He dismissed criticisms trailing its nationwide primaries, describing the exercise, especially Saturday’s presidential primaries as a “dress rehearsal” for victory in the 2027 general elections.

According to Yilwatda, the massive turnout across the country foretells what Nigerians should expect at the polls, boasting that no rival party could match the ruling party’s strength.

“If you see the turnout on Saturday, the numbers ran into thousands. This is only a mock demonstration of what the general election will look like. No political party can showcase one-tenth of what we presented,” he said.

Yilwatda also dismissed viral videos alleging irregularities in vote counting, describing them as recycled and misattributed clips unrelated to APC activities.

“Most of those videos are unverified and not from our processes. You won’t see APC banners, flags or membership identification in them. Some are from entirely different events,” he added.

As it is, he continued, the APC had become the political platform of choice, with Nigerians across party lines scrambling to join.

“The APC is now the rallying point. The competition to belong is very high, and thousands are buying nomination forms. That shows growing acceptance nationwide,” he said.

Looking at the results of the primaries released by the chairman of the committee, Senator Anyim Pius Anyim, the president made massive inroads in South-East and South-South, where he performed poorly in 2023. He also got more support in the North-East 

In 2023, Tinubu got a miserly 127,605 votes from the five South-East states. At the presidential primaries, the figure sky-rocked to 1,377,960 with Governor Hope Uzodimma’s Imo State providing over 582,000(see table).

In the South-South, the president garnered 799,957 votes in 2023 compared to 1,539,126 votes he got at the primaries. And in the North-East, the figure rose from 1,185,458 in 2023 to 2,103,697.

Conversely, Tinubu’s support base in his native South-West appears to have plummeted. He got 1,648,451 votes at the primaries compared to the 2,279,407 votes he got in 2023. 

The pattern of support in North-West and North-Central does not appear strikingly different.

How Tinubu performed in APC 2026 presidential primaries

North-West

Kaduna — 618,914

Kano — 500,852

Katsina — 467,003

Kebbi — 292,972

Jigawa — 206,520

Sokoto — 301,000

Zamfara — 321,579

Sub-total— 2,708,840

North-East

Adamawa — 644,149

Bauchi — 156,541

Borno — 414,988

Gombe — 450,517

Taraba — 183,698

Yobe — 253,804

Sub-total 2,103,697

North-Central

Benue — 374,787

Kogi — 197,370

Kwara — 310,990

Nasarawa — 285,436

Niger — 175,487

Plateau — 241,720

FCT — 36,103

Sub-total— 1,621,893

South-West

Ekiti — 85,340

Lagos — 814,988

Ogun — 322,485

Ondo — 181,996

Osun — 100,888

Oyo — 142,754

Sub-total—1,648,451

South-East

Abia — 161,005

Anambra — 43,034

Ebonyi — 207,579

Enugu — 383,382

Imo — 582,960

Sub-total— 1,377,960

South-South

Akwa Ibom — 389,197

Bayelsa — 227,192

Cross River — 113,911

Delta — 407,646

Edo — 121,098

Rivers — 280,082

Sub-total — 1,539,126

Grand Total—

10,999,967 votes

How Tinubu fared in 2023 presidential election as declared by INEC

North-West

Jigawa — 421,390

Kaduna — 399,293

Kano — 517,341

Katsina — 482,283

Kebbi — 248,088

Sokoto — 285,444

Zamfara — 298,396

Sub total— 2,652,235

North-East

Adamawa — 182,881

Bauchi — 316,694

Borno — 252,282

Gombe — 146,977

Taraba — 135,165

Yobe — 151,459

Sub.total-1,185,458

North-Central

Benue — 310,468

Kogi — 240,751

Kwara — 263,572

Nasarawa — 172,922

Niger — 375,183

Plateau — 307,195

FCT, Abuja —90,902

Sub.total—1,670,091

South-West

Ekiti — 201,494

Lagos — 572,606 

Ogun — 341,554

Ondo — 369,924

Osun — 343,945

Oyo — 449,884

Sub. total— 2,279,407

South-South

Akwa Ibom — 160,620

Bayelsa — 42,572

Cross River — 130,520

Delta — 90,183

Edo — 144,471

Rivers — 231,591

Sub. total —799,957

South-East

Abia — 8,914 

Anambra — 5,111 

Ebonyi — 42,402 

Enugu — 4,772

Imo — 66,406

Sub. total — 127,605

Grand Total— 8,794,753

Hurdles before Tinubu

To replicate the outcome of the presidential primaries and turn it into a success in 2027, the APC may have a lot of work in the North-West and South-West.

Incidentally, both zones command the highest number of voters in the country.

It also has to contend with the opposition being mounted by former Anambra State Governor and 2023 Labour Party Presidential Candidate, Mr. Peter Obi. 

Obi, the only aspirant of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, is expected to pick former Kano State Governor, Senator Musa Kwankwaso, a move his supporters said would galvanize northern votes.

Apart from, the African Democratic Congress, ADC, will make a pick among former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former Rivers State Governor Mr Rotimi Amaechi; and Economist, Mohammed Hayattu-Deen,  today.

The other potential opponents include former President Good luck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party,PDP; Prince Adewolu Adebayo of Social Democratic Party, SDP; Dr Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim of Accord;  Mr Donald Duke of People’s Redemption Party, PRP; Sandy On or(PDP); and Peter Agada(LP) among others.

Whether or not Tinubu will scale the hurdles is a question of time.

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