Voters and supporters across northern Nigeria are expressing mixed views over how the region may vote in the 2027 presidential election if former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar and former Kano Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso remain on different political platforms.
The debate comes amid growing discussions surrounding a possible alliance involving Peter Obi and Kwankwaso on one side, while Atiku is expected to pursue his presidential ambition separately with a yet-to-be-identified running mate.
Commenting on the emerging political permutations, Adnan Mukhtar Tudun Wada, an ADC chieftain, told DAILY POST that northern voters may be divided because of the different alliances and political interests ahead of the election.
According to him, Kwankwaso’s political influence remains the strongest in Kano State, unlike Atiku, whose support base stretches across several northern states.
“From my observation, Kwankwaso’s strength is in Kano. Even in the previous election, you could see how he only made it in Kano, while Atiku is all over,” he said.
He added that some northern voters are uncomfortable with Obi’s involvement because of perceptions surrounding the 2023 election campaign.
“The issue is that the North is not comfortable with Obi on the ballot because of the religious card he played the other time. That will also affect the strength of Kwankwaso in 2027,” he stated.
Wada further argued that many northerners are against the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, and may prefer to support a northern candidate in the next election.
“The North is unanimously united against the APC and will surely go for a northerner on the ballot. Kwankwaso is a running mate this time around, and that has discouraged many of his supporters,” he added.
On the other hand, Kano Obidient Coordinator, Barrister Ibrahim Muhammad, believes the northern vote may split differently from what happened in the 2023 election because of the proposed alliances.
“The northern vote will likely split, but not like that of the 2023, because Kwankwaso is running with Peter Obi as presidential candidate from the South,” he told DAILY POST.
He explained that the voting pattern could depend on factors such as regional strength, the choice of running mates, and which candidate voters believe has the best chance of defeating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.
“And the pattern will depend on three things: home-base strength, running mates, and whether voters consolidate around the candidate they see as most likely to beat Tinubu,” he noted.
Muhammad also pointed to the wider coalition being discussed among opposition figures and parties.
“2023 election, Kwankwaso contested as presidential candidate in NNPP, which is a different party from the party Atiku contested under and got lower votes, but this coming election (2027 election), Kwankwaso will run with Peter Obi together with a massive alliance from different parties such as LP, SDP, APGA, and even those departing from APC to NDC,” he said.
According to him, some northern voters now see Atiku’s political moves as personal ambition rather than a broader opposition strategy.
“Northerners now understand that Atiku is running for himself, not for Nigerians, because Obi and Kwankwaso asked him to join NDC so that they can merge together and beat Tinubu, and he denied,” he claimed.
He further predicted that a Kwankwaso/Obi alliance could perform strongly in Kano, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto, and other North-West states, while Obi’s influence may also boost support in the North-East and North-Central regions.
“The merger of Obi and Kwankwaso will help massively in getting more votes in Nigeria than any other part because of their loyalty and dedication to citizens,” he added.
However, one Mamman Buhari, an activist in Kano, believes neither Atiku nor Kwankwaso would come out victorious.
He told DAILY POST, “Kwankwaso has proved to be selfish, siding with Obi. Both Obi and Kwankwaso don’t respect the political awareness of the other, but selfishness has made them come together.
“And Atiku should let us be; he has been contesting for a very long time.“
Atiku, Kwankwaso alliance could divide northern votes in 2027 — Stakeholders