Battle for Osun: Who wins the 2.34m electorate?

By Shina Abubakar

OSOGBO— WITH just over four weeks to the governorship election in Osun State and the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, confirming that 2,339, 233 residents registered to participate in the polls, candidates and political parties are intensifying moves to warm themselves into the hearts of the people with a view to winning their support to emerge as the next Governor of the state.

Of the 14 political parties and their candidates listed by INEC for the August 15 governorship polls, the most visible candidates have presented their manifestoes, gone beyond consultation and embarked on campaigns across the local government areas.

The candidates and their parties

Candidates in the race include Governor Ademola Adeleke (Accord Party), Farinloye Olarenwaju (Action Alliance), Esan Olajide (African Action Congress, AAC); Najeem Salaam (African Democratic Congress, ADC); Adeagbo Opawoye (African Democratic Party, ADP) and Bola Oyebamiji (All Progressives Congress, APC).

Others are Adesina Aseyemi-Doro (All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA); Adewale Adebayo (Allied People Movement, APM); Clement Adesuyi (Action Peoples Party, APP); Masilo Adeleke (Boot Party); Taofeek Adeleke (New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP); Saliu Oyelami (Peoples Redemption Party, PRP), Ogunsakin Olalekan (Young Progressives Party, YPP) and Adefemi Adesuyi (Zenith Labour Party, ZLP).
Out of the 14 candidates, only three have presented manifestoes and commenced campaigns.

While Governor Adeleke hinged his re-election campaign on his five-point agenda reloaded, his rival, Mr Bola Oyebamiji of APC, tagged his manifesto as ‘Prosperity agenda’.

Najeem Salaam of the ADC also launched a 10-point agenda manifesto.

Adeleke’s prospect

Apart from being the incumbent governor, he also enjoyed acceptability among the majority of civil servants and the leadership of the labour unions; the NLC, TUC and JNC are all on his side and appearing in the Accord party campaign soliciting support for the governor.

The Governor is also banking on his achievements in the area of infrastructure across the three senatorial districts, which has been driving his campaigns so far.

It is also a major point for his party members and supporters. In addition, the Ede born politician seems to be enjoying the backing of some traditional rulers in the state, led by the Ataoja of Osogbo, who on different occasions publicly declared support for the Governor and Accord party despite resistance from his subjects.

Also, Adeleke’s popularity has extended to the party, with the Accord party becoming more popular than the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, through which he won the governorship poll about four years ago.
The PDP’s failure to field a candidate for the 2026 polls in the state is more of an advantage for the Governor’s re-election bid as the party’s structure, apart from a few strong men, still works for the Accord.

Omisore’s loyalists’ defection

Another major advantage the governor has is the defection of Senator Iyiola Omisore’s loyalists to the Accord Party due to the fallout of the APC primaries.

Although Omisore did not leave the APC, many of his associates who served in the Gboyega Oyetola administration, including three commissioners and Special Advisers, left the party and joined the Accord.
It is also believed that Governor Adeleke has an advantage in the Osun-West Senatorial District, where he won massively in 2022.

Interestingly, the APC candidate is also from the district, which may lead to a division of votes cast during the polls.

Ede federal constituency, which the Governor hails from, consisting of Ede-North, Ede-South, Egbedore and Ejigbo local governments, has a total of 319,489 registered voters. This is a major advantage for the governor who still retains hold on the senatorial district.

Challenges

The governor’s major problems stem from his policy decisions early in his administration.

The opposition cites the sacking of teachers and health workers without replacements; the sacking of media workers of the State-owned broadcast stations and the administration’s failure to recruit civil servants as a minus for his re-election bid.

The administration is facing serious allegation of nepotism, with outcry over recent employment into the teaching service and the University of Ilesa favouring Ede indigenes and shutting out other towns.

Also, the governor’s dismal performance in major sectors like agriculture, health, commerce, industry and education form major issues for his opponents’ campaign strategies.

Another factor that may affect the fortunes of the governor is that a major PDP bloc loyal to former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola has publicly dumped the governor for the candidate of the APM, Mr Adewale Adebayo.

Oyebamiji’s prospects

The APC candidate is believed to enjoy the support of President Bola Tinubu and the APC governors, who will stop at nothing to ensure victory for the party at the polls.

The APC candidate’s personality and philanthropy act has endeared him to the people.

Apart from being endorsed by the President, Oyebamiji’s election bid receive major boost with the defection of all the federal lawmakers from Osun-East senatorial district, who are also major political gladiators from the towns.

They include Senator Francis Fadahunsi, Mr Wole Oke (Ijesa-North federal constituency), Sanya Omirin (Ijesa-South federal constituency) and Mr Taofeek Ajilesoro (Ife federal constituency).

The defectors are seen as turning the tide in favour of the APC candidate in their respective strongholds.
Their action, according to party leaders, may tilt the pendulum in favour of Oyebamiji from the senatorial district.

Besides, some of Omisore’s point men in Ife have also pledged loyalty to the party and its candidate.
While Adeleke got massive votes from Osun-West in 2022, the candidature of Oyebamiji may change the narrative, with the total registered votes from Ikire federal constituency amounting to 222,786 votes for Irewole, Ayedaade and Isokan local governments, likely reducing the influence of the governor in the district.

While Governor Adeleke seems to enjoy endorsement among royal fathers from Ife, Oyebamiji’s major endorsement programme has been coming from markets and traders.

In most of his engagements, the APC candidate has always taken advantage of the allegation of nepotism against the incumbent to sell himself as a man for all.

Challenges

Oyebamiji’s major issue is the policy decision of the Oyetola administration under whom he served.
The modulated salary under Governor Rauf Aregbesola and the inability of Governor Gboyega Oyetola to pay part of it has been a major issue confronting his candidature.

His critics, especially from the Accord party, believe he is responsible for the modulated salary under Aregbesola’s administration and should not be trusted with the governorship seat.

Najeem Salaam’s prospect

Since unveiling his 10 point agenda, anchored on workers’ welfare and sustainable electricity for the industrialisation of the state, Salaam, a former Speaker of the House of Assembly, has continuously been engaging with the electorate on the need to abandon the traditional political parties.

Salaam’s advantage is Aregbesola’s grassroots appeal when he was governor in the state and the candidate’s humble nature that attracts him to a section of supporters across the state, especially from Osun-West Senatorial District where he hails from.

Many grassroots politicians, who left the APC along with Aregbesola, are with Salaam, which is helping to bolster his governorship ambition.

His Osun-West senatorial district root can harm both Adeleke and Oyebamiji and could be an advantage should he decide to go into an alliance work with any of the two.

He has, however, vowed to reach the finish line as he claims to be better qualified to govern the state than any of the candidates.

His challenges

Salaam’s major challenge is his affiliation with Rauf Aregbesola, who is the National Secretary of the ADC.
Civil servants are yet to forgive the former Governor, who had bitter experiences with the modulated salary and pension issues during Aregbesola’s reign.

Observers of political events in the state posit that the ADC does not have the necessary state-wide structure needed to prosecute an election, nor does it possess the needed resources to run a successful governorship project.

As the election draws near, the parties and their candidates are strategising to outwit each other to occupy the Government House for the next four years.

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