• Restates commitment to price stability
• Obegolu demands monetary policy that makes credit work for small businesses
James Emejo in Abuja
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), yesterday, linked the country’s expanding external buffer to a deeper shift into the formal financial system, stronger remittance flows, and rising investment.
CBN Director, Stakeholder Engagement and Institutional Relations Department, Mrs. Hakama Sidi-Ali, who gave the account, also underscored the accumulation of foreign reserves, which stood at $55.25 billion as of September 18, 2026, the highest level in 18 years.
Sidi-Ali spoke on the “CBN Special Day” at the ongoing 21st Abuja International Trade Fair.
The central bank director linked the stronger external reserves position to measures designed to improve foreign exchange inflows and move more transactions into formal channels.
She said the development reflected the impact of reforms that encouraged remittances, investments, and wider participation in the formal financial system.
CBN had in recent months highlighted the recovery in formal remittances as an important component for rebuilding external buffers.
The improvement in reserves had also coincided with receding FX pressures and stronger external-sector fundamentals.
Sidi-Ali said the unification of the FX market had also strengthened stability, improved investor confidence, and reduced distortions. That was alongside other reforms, including the banking sector recapitalisation and the Payments System Vision 2028 aimed at deepening digital and cross-border payments, she said.
She stated that the stronger external position formed part of the foundation for a more resilient economy.
According to her, “Resilient trade thrives in an environment of macroeconomic stability.”
Sidi-Ali stressed that businesses were more willing to plan and invest when inflation was moderating, exchange rates were relatively stable, and the financial system remained sound.
The CBN director said the objective was not simply to accumulate reserves but to create the macroeconomic conditions in which businesses could expand production, attract investment, and compete.
The apex bank cut the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 26.5 per cent to 23 per cent and adjusted the Standing Facilities Corridor to +50/-300 basis points around the MPR.
Sidi-Ali said the move was intended to support productive activities while retaining the focus on bringing inflation, currently at 15.39 per cent, down towards single digits.
The CBN director reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to price stability, banking-sector resilience, and strengthening the wider financial system, while urging businesses to innovate, improve governance, and seek new markets.
Nonetheless, for businesses, particularly smaller enterprises, the critical question remained whether improved macroeconomic indicators will translate into cheaper and easily accessible credit.
Obegolu Seeks Monetary Policy That Works for Small Businesses
The monetary transmission challenge was underscored by President of Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), Chief Emeka Obegolu, who called for policies that reduced the financing and operating burden on enterprises.
Obegolu stated that business resilience could not simply mean companies continually absorbing high costs.
He identified access to affordable finance, infrastructure deficits, multiple taxation, high operating costs, and cumbersome trade procedures among constraints confronting enterprises, particularly small and medium-sized businesses.
The ACCI president called for a policy environment that encouraged production and rewarded innovation rather than leaving businesses to absorb the full cost of economic adjustment.
He also urged greater coordination of taxes, rates, fees, and levies, stating that overlapping charges further compress already constrained business margins.
Citing Improving Macroeconomic Stability, Strengthening Investor Confidence, World Bank Upgrades Nigeria’s Growth Forecast to 4.3%
• Says unreliable power, costly connectivity, skills, financing could blunt AI-led productivity gains
• Declares growth faces jobs challenge in AI era
•Projects inflation to ease to 12.2% in 2028
Ndubuisi Francis and James Emejo in Abuja and Nume Ekeghe in Lagos
Citing improving macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment, the World Bank has upgraded Nigeria’s growth projection to 4.3 per cent in 2026 from its earlier forecast of 4.0 per cent, and a 4.4 per cent outlook for 2027 and 2028.
In its October 2026 Africa Economic Update released yesterday, the Bretton Woods institution listed Nigeria alongside Zambia, Ethiopia and Angola where growth forecasts were upgraded, attributing the growth to reforms and improved economic management.
The Bank said, “Economic activity in Nigeria is projected to strengthen from 4.0 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026, before edging up to 4.4 percent annually in 2027–28, supported by improving macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence, and a gradual recovery in private investment.”
Commenting on the report, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa, Andrew Dabalen, said Sub-Saharan Africa continued to demonstrate resilience, with growth forecasts upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries in the region, adding that stronger regional performance had helped lift its 2026 growth forecast for Africa to 4.3 per cent from 4.1 per cent in its April projection.
Nigeria’s growth momentum
World Bank warned that stronger economic growth was yet to translate sufficiently into poverty reduction, as per-capita income growth continues to lag overall economic expansion across the region.
The World Bank noted that for Nigeria, growth remains insufficient to generate enough productive jobs and materially reduce poverty.
“However, the pace of poverty reduction is likely to remain constrained by elevated fuel prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to weigh disproportionately on low-income households,” it said, prescribing sustained reforms, greater private investment, improved infrastructure, human capital development and stronger productivity would be needed to translate macroeconomic stability into better living standards.
World Bank’s revised outlook comes after Nigeria recently posted a stronger gross domestic product (GDP) performance.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, compared with 4.23 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
The 4.43 per cent growth represented an improvement from the 4.23 per cent growth recorded in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025.
The latest performance provides a recent domestic indicator of the economic expansion reflected in the World Bank’s revised outlook.
In general, the bank pointed out that regional economic expansion had been supported by improved macroeconomic resilience, stronger domestic demand and investment in digital technologies as well as global energy transition.
Growth must translate to jobs
The Bretton Woods institution noted that the region faces a more difficult test than simply sustaining growth.
It said converting rising output into sufficient productive jobs for a rapidly expanding workforce remained a challenge amid economic recovery which is gathering pace.
Dabalen said the growth forecasts had been upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries, including Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia, reflecting reforms and improvements in economic management.
He said the next challenge was turning growth into more jobs and better opportunities, adding that investment in the foundations of an AI-ready economy could raise productivity, stimulate innovation and accelerate structural transformation.
Dabalen said, “Despite a challenging global environment, economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, with growth forecasts upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries in the region, including Angola, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Zambia. These gains reflect years of reforms and improved economic management.”
He said, “The next challenge is turning growth into more jobs and better opportunities. By investing in the foundations of an AI-ready economy, African countries can unlock productivity gains, spur innovation, and accelerate the structural transformation needed to raise living standards and reduce poverty.”
AI opportunity hinges on basic infrastructure
The global development institution urged governments in Sub-Saharan Africa to embrace Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digital technologies to raise productivity and create jobs, saying the continent needs to take advantage of new technologies while addressing infrastructure and skills gaps.
The update identified Artificial Intelligence (AI) as one potential lever, but stressed that Africa’s AI opportunity will depend less on developing frontier technologies than on fixing the basic economic infrastructure required to deploy affordable, locally relevant applications.
Most African countries remain at an early stage of AI adoption, with activity concentrated in a handful of economies, notably Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa.
Rather than attempting to compete immediately in frontier AI systems, the report said the bigger opportunity lies in small, affordable applications adapted to local conditions and capable of operating with limited bandwidth.
It pointed out that such applications could improve productivity across agriculture, education, healthcare, financial services, logistics and public administration.
For African economies, however, the technology opportunity could remain limited without improvements in reliable electricity, affordable internet access, digital skills, quality data and computing infrastructure.
The report particularly examined how AI can raise productivity, improve services, and create jobs as most countries are still at an early stage of AI adoption, with activity concentrated in a small number of economies, notably Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa.
The region’s greatest opportunity lies in affordable, locally adapted small AI applications, meaning low bandwidth tools for education, agriculture, health, finance, logistics, and public administration, rather than frontier AI systems.
It stated that realising these benefits will require investments in reliable electricity, affordable connectivity, digital skills, quality data, compute infrastructure, and effective governance.
Financing pressures could slow AI ambitions
The report also comes against a difficult financing backdrop.
The median inflation rate in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to increase from 3.7 per cent in 2025 to 5.5 per cent in 2026, reflecting renewed pressure from global fuel, fertiliser and food prices.
Public debt has broadly stabilised at about 57 per cent of GDP, but elevated debt-service costs continue to squeeze public spending on health, education and infrastructure.
With development assistance declining, the World Bank said African countries would increasingly have to mobilise domestic revenue, deepen local capital markets and secure more sustainable sources of financing.
The combination creates a potential constraint on the region’s technology ambitions: the investments required to build an AI-ready economy are competing with immediate demands for infrastructure, social services and debt servicing.
The World Bank warned that the outlook also remained exposed to geopolitical tensions, tighter global financial conditions, climate-related shocks, disease outbreaks and insecurity.
A renewed rise in commodity prices could intensify inflation and weaken external and fiscal balances, while climate shocks, including the possible effects of an El Niño event, could disrupt agricultural production and worsen food insecurity.
The report added that risks remained tilted to the downside, stressing that further geopolitical tensions could trigger additional increases in commodity prices, intensify inflation, and weaken external and fiscal balances.
Also, climate-related shocks, including the effects of a potential El Niño event, could disrupt agricultural production and worsen food insecurity, while tighter financing conditions would further constrain fiscal space, the World Bank added.
Against this backdrop, the report stated that AI should be viewed less as a technology-sector opportunity and more as a tool for improving productivity across the wider economy.
It said strong institutions, technical capacity and effective implementation would be necessary to translate AI adoption into broad-based economic gains.
Regional cooperation could also become important, particularly through the African Union’s Continental AI Strategy and the African Continental Free Trade Area, which could help countries scale locally developed solutions beyond individual national markets.
According to the report, “Inflation is projected to decline from 23 per cent in 2025 to 15.7 per cent in 2026 and ease further to 12.2 per cent by 2028.”
The update attributed the expected moderation to the effects of monetary tightening, exchange-rate stabilisation and improving supply conditions.
“Lower inflation is expected to support household purchasing power and contribute to a gradual reduction in poverty,” the World Bank stated.
However, the bank cautioned that the pace of poverty reduction could remain constrained by elevated fuel prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East, which it said continued to weigh disproportionately on low-income households.
The outlook for Nigeria’s external position also remains positive in the near term. The current account surplus is projected to widen from 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 6.0 per cent in 2026, before gradually narrowing to 3.4 per cent by 2028 as oil prices normalise and import demand strengthens.
The institution said growth across Sub-Saharan Africa had held up despite heightened geopolitical tensions, weaker development financing, mounting debt-service burdens and other domestic pressures.
It noted that 35 of the region’s 47 countries had seen upward revisions to their 2026 growth forecasts.
The improvement, according to the report, reflects a combination of cyclical and structural factors. Oil exporters such as Nigeria have benefited from stronger commodity prices and increased extractive-sector activity, while other economies have been supported by agricultural recoveries, stronger domestic demand and structural reforms aimed at improving the business environment and attracting investment.