By Gabriel Ewepu
ABUJA — Climate change is increasingly threatening Nigeria’s food production, disrupting farming calendars, reducing yields and exposing farmers to mounting financial losses, stakeholders have warned.
Farmers and agribusiness operators who spoke with Vanguard said unpredictable rainfall, prolonged dry spells, flooding, rising temperatures, pest infestations and crop diseases were making agricultural production increasingly difficult and risky.
They also called for urgent investment in irrigation, climate-resilient crop varieties, extension services, affordable finance, insurance and climate-smart agricultural practices to enable farmers adapt to changing weather conditions.
The concerns come against the backdrop of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), which forecast early-to-normal onset of rains, normal-to-late cessation, normal-to-above-normal rainfall and warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the country. NiMet also warned of prolonged dry spells in parts of the North and Central regions.
The agency had predicted earlier-than-normal onset of rainfall in Bayelsa, Rivers, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa and Taraba states, while delayed onset was forecast for Borno State.
NiMet also projected above-normal rainfall in parts of Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi and Akwa Ibom states and the Federal Capital Territory, while below-normal rainfall was expected in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun states.
It further warned that severe dry spells of up to 21 days could occur in parts of northern and central Nigeria during the June-August period, with implications for crop yields and water availability.
Although the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook has since been released by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), flooding remains a major concern for agricultural communities. The agency published its 2026 outlook in April as a tool for flood preparedness and planning.
Farmers count losses
Chairman of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), FCT chapter, Dr Nkechi Okafor, said the effects of climate change on food production were already evident and required urgent intervention to prevent farmers from abandoning agriculture.
“Climate change is real. It has been established in its true terms and it has come to stay. The only thing now is how we can work around it to make headway,” she said.
Okafor, a crop farmer, said changes in rainfall patterns had made it difficult for farmers to determine when to plant.
“Most parts of the country have not experienced harmattan and you know that all those things have their own impact on the lands and our crops. You can as well hear or see that different parts have experienced rains at different periods and you will ask yourself, can I call this early rain or what?
“Nigerian farmers are living at the mercy of nature. There is little they can do in most of the situations they are facing.
“No rain, no farming, and rain coming at a point you cannot use it for farming creates other problems because you may rush to plant and end up not seeing another rain for the next two or more months.”
She said late commencement and early cessation of rainfall had affected the production of cereals, legumes, root and tuber crops and rice.
“Most of the weather for root and tuber crop initiation is not always there. Even rice production is also a big challenge and there are no facilities for irrigation farming,” she said.
Okafor said farmers were losing huge investments to climate-related disruptions.
“Losses incurred cannot just be stated. It is not only about me, it is about Nigerian farmers. If I state here how much was my loss because I had the opportunity to interact with the media, what about those of my members who are not opportune as I am?
“Nigerian farmers are running losses into billions of Naira, and it is unfortunate.”
She called for greater investment in climate-smart agriculture and training for farmers to enable them cope with unpredictable weather conditions.
Farmers fear uncertain weather
Okafor expressed concern about the uncertainty surrounding planting seasons, despite the availability of weather forecasts.
“Before this challenge of climate change, every farmer knew the period rains start in each region but this day, no one predicts when rain will start. Even though there is always information from NiMet in the form of weather forecast, how many rural farmers get the information?” she asked.
She said farmers needed training on climate-smart agriculture and better access to improved seeds and other agricultural inputs.
“Farmers need to be helped by building their capabilities on how to thrive in the midst of uncertainty,” she said.
Okafor urged the government and development partners to support irrigation systems, climate-smart agriculture and all-year-round farming to reduce farmers’ dependence on rainfall.
She also appealed for measures to reduce the cost of agricultural inputs.
“Seeds and other agricultural inputs are expensive but agricultural produce is cheap in the market. We are hopeful that as the government is boasting of crushing food prices, they should equally crush input prices too,” she said.
Planting calendars disrupted
Chief Farmer of Africa and Lead, JetFarmsNG, Jerry Olanrenwaju, said climate change had directly affected farming operations through unpredictable rainfall, prolonged dry spells and flooding.
“Over the past few years, we have observed unpredictable rainfall patterns, prolonged dry spells, and in some cases, excessive flooding.
“These changes have disrupted planting calendars, reduced yields, and increased production risks not just for us, but for thousands of smallholder farmers we work with across Nigeria,” he said.
Olanrenwaju said JetFarmsNG cultivated ginger, turmeric, garlic and other spices, adding that irregular rainfall affected germination and root development, while excessive moisture increased the risk of fungal diseases.
He said some farmers in the company’s network had lost between 30 and 40 per cent of expected yields in some seasons.
“On an average hectare where a farmer might invest between N500,000 and N800,000, losses can run into hundreds of thousands of Naira due to poor weather conditions alone,” he said.
He said the company was promoting climate-smart agriculture through improved land preparation, organic soil enhancers, drainage systems and adaptive planting schedules.
It is also exploring irrigation and water-management solutions and working with partners to introduce improved crop varieties capable of withstanding changing weather conditions.
Olanrenwaju, however, said government interventions were not reaching farmers at the required scale.
“More needs to be done in terms of extension services, access to finance, insurance, and climate information systems that farmers can rely on,” he said.
Climate change creates fear, hesitation
Co-Founder of Kaduna-based DeBranch Farmers Limited, Sandra Victor-Gwafan, said climate change had created uncertainty among farmers over when to commence planting.
“Farmers are no longer sure of the right time to begin planting. In recent years, early rains have stopped suddenly or heavy rains have come too late. This has created fear and hesitation among farmers as they prepare for the new season,” she said.
She said the company, which works mainly with rice out-grower farmers, had seen climate-related challenges affect land preparation and nursery planning.
Victor-Gwafan said some farmers had lost between 30 and 50 per cent of expected harvests in previous seasons due to flooding and prolonged dry spells.
She said the financial losses amounted to between N120,000 and N200,000 per hectare for some farmers.
To reduce the risks, she said the company was sensitising farmers on weather information, drainage planning and staggered planting.
She also called for increased investment in irrigation, resilient seeds, extension services, timely climate information and affordable financing.
Irrigation key to resilience
A farmer in Oyo State, Oluokun Remi, who cultivates tomato, pepper, okra, cucumber, cabbage, onion and fruits, said excessive rainfall could wash nutrients away from plant roots, while sudden cessation of rainfall could cause significant losses.
“I have incurred a lot of losses in the past while expecting the rain to start and when it has started and it stopped suddenly,” he said.
Remi said he had responded by incorporating irrigation into his farm planning.
“Whenever I want to plant now, I plan for irrigation completely for the period. So, if the rain comes, fine, and if it doesn’t come, there is a plan,” he said.
Expert seeks climate-smart farming
An environmental expert, Prof. Babatunde Bolaji Bernard, said climate change had moved from a distant concern to an immediate threat to Nigerian agriculture.
He said farmers across the country were experiencing erratic rainfall, delayed onset of rains and prolonged dry spells, while rising temperatures were increasing soil moisture loss.
“Extreme weather events, especially flooding, are washing away farmlands, inputs, and entire harvests,” he said.
According to him, drought and desertification were particularly affecting the northern belt, while flooding was more common in central and southern regions.
He added that heat stress, irregular rainfall, pests and crop diseases were compounding agricultural losses.
Bernard said maize, rice, sorghum, millet and cassava were among crops affected by changing weather patterns, although their vulnerability differed.
He recommended climate-smart practices, including early-maturing and drought-resistant varieties, improved irrigation, mulching, conservation agriculture, crop diversification and agroforestry.
He also called for improved weather information, extension services, storage facilities and processing infrastructure.
For the government, he advocated greater investment in irrigation, rural roads, storage, market access and agricultural insurance, as well as stronger enforcement of environmental regulations.
ActionAid seeks stronger investment
Country Director of ActionAid Nigeria, Dr Andrew Mamedu, said climate change was already affecting millions of smallholder farmers, particularly women who play major roles in household food production.
He said farmers in northern states were facing prolonged droughts, desertification and shorter rainy seasons, while communities in the Middle Belt and southern riverine areas were experiencing recurrent flooding.
“Most smallholder farmers depend on rain-fed agriculture, so irregular rainfall, delayed onset of rains, and early cessation directly translate into lower productivity,” Mamedu said.
He said climate variability had also contributed to increased pest and disease outbreaks, while poor storage, inadequate processing and weak rural infrastructure were worsening post-harvest losses.
According to him, the impact was particularly severe for women farmers because of their limited access to land, finance, irrigation, extension services and climate information.
Mamedu acknowledged government and development partners’ efforts in climate-resilient agriculture and agroecology but said the response remained insufficient compared with the scale of the challenge.
He called for a shift from reactive interventions to a coordinated and adequately funded approach to climate resilience.
“This starts with scaling up investment in climate-resilient and agroecological farming practices, including drought-tolerant and flood-tolerant crop varieties, soil restoration, regenerative agriculture, and sustainable livestock systems,” he said.
He also advocated expansion of small-scale irrigation, solar-powered water systems, water harvesting and dry-season farming to reduce dependence on rainfall.
Mamedu said improving farmers’ profitability would also require investment in climate-resilient storage, cold chains, rural roads and local processing facilities.
He called for affordable credit, insurance and targeted subsidies, particularly for smallholder women farmers, as well as stronger extension services.
“The government must treat climate change as a core agricultural, food security, and economic issue that requires urgent and sustained attention,” he said.
Ultimately, he said, Nigeria’s ability to achieve food security would depend on building a resilient agricultural system capable of withstanding increasingly unpredictable climate conditions.
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