- Says without FG’s protection, no other refinery may be built in his lifetime
•Projects his facility to become Africa’s biggest firm in three years - To prioritise small investors, hold AGMs in stadiums
•Insists he can’t subsidise fuel amid rising oil, shipping costs
•Reveals his textile business collapsed after Chinese, Indian dumping
•Stresses his biggest business risk was staking all assets on refinery
•Builds future around his daughters, says having a son not priority
Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja
Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, yesterday maintained that the country’s industrialisation drive was being undermined by inconsistent government policies, expensive financing and inadequate electricity, arguing that investors would not commit capital to new projects without confidence that the business environment will be receptive.
Besides, he warned that Nigeria could go another decade or even a lifetime without building a new refinery unless the federal government protects domestic industries from imported products, outlining plans to make his refinery a mass-owned company.
Dangote, who spoke during an exclusive interview with Arise Television, argued that Nigeria’s interest rate environment was unsuitable for industrialisation, noting that borrowing costs of about 30 per cent made it difficult for manufacturers to build factories and remain competitive.
“It is very difficult to industrialise with interest rates at 30 per cent. I can’t see the magician who can actually industrialise a country with 30 per cent of interest cost,” he said, explaining that the cost of financing could double the amount required to establish a factory, especially where the project would take years to complete.
He emphasised that although Nigeria has entrepreneurs capable of driving industrialisation, many were reluctant to commit their money because of policy uncertainty. According to Dangote, government assurances alone would not be sufficient to attract investment unless they were backed by policies that remained stable over time.
Dangote argued that his own willingness to take enormous risks was unusual among investors, adding that other entrepreneurs might not be prepared to sacrifice their personal lives and health in the way he had done.
“The greatest problem, there are two, which are still existing. One is inconsistencies in government policies. The second one is to do with lack of electricity,” he said, emphasising that high interest rates were making industrial investment extremely difficult.
He also warned that manufacturers could not rely on diesel-powered generation to remain competitive, particularly at current diesel prices. “You cannot manufacture goods with diesel. You can see where diesel is today. You can’t produce bread and make money today,” he said.
The businessman explained that Nigeria’s current policy environment was discouraging investment in new refineries and warned that the situation could persist for years unless the government took steps to protect local manufacturers.
“Under the current things that are going on, especially downstream, I cannot see any new refineries in our lifetime. Today is the 13th of September 2026. I want me and you to review another 13th of September in the year 2036. By God’s grace, if we’re all alive. There will not be any refinery,” he argued.
The Dangote Refinery is currently locked in a legal battle with the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) on the continued issuance and renewal of petrol import licences to marketers, despite the availability of locally refined products.
The refinery is asking the court to nullify import permits issued or renewed by the regulator, effectively seeking to curtail the entry of imported petrol into a market it argues should increasingly be supplied by domestic refineries.
However, proponents of fuel imports insist that the company will become a monopoly if it’s allowed to be sole supplier of petroleum in Nigeria. Besides, they maintain that relying on a single facility to fuel a country of over 250 million people won’t ensure energy security for the nation.
But Dangote who described himself as a ‘fighter’ emphasised during the interview that the absence of protection for domestic industries would continue to discourage investment, arguing that countries such as India, Singapore and South Korea had built strong industrial bases despite not being major crude oil producers.
“Even water, you cannot produce water unless there is protection. If a government wants to create jobs, they want to create economic activities, they want to collect tax, they also have to give something. And the only thing that they will give in is to protect the domestic industry,” he pointed out.
Dangote said Nigeria’s dependence on imported goods was effectively exporting jobs and importing poverty.
“If you import, what you are doing is that you are importing poverty and exporting jobs that you’re supposed to create out of the country,” he said.
The billionaire’s comments came as the Dangote Refinery offered N2.15 trillion shares to the public on Monday in what he described as an effort to democratise wealth creation and allow ordinary Nigerians to own a stake in the 650,000 barrels per day facility.
He said the company would prioritise small investors, including drivers, cooks, market women, mechanics and labourers, insisting that the objective of the offer was not merely to raise money but to bring more Nigerians into the capital market.
Dangote said the refinery could become Africa’s biggest company within three years, adding that the business would grow beyond expectations.
“This company, give it three years, it will be the biggest company. The biggest company in Africa is going to really grow beyond people’s imagination. It doesn’t matter what,” he assured.
He said the offer would be structured to give smaller investors priority, although larger investors would not be excluded.
“The IPO is the most important thing for us. We now make sure that we bring in democracy into the stock exchange. Where now, small people like my driver, your driver, the cooks, the market women, everybody will now be a shareholder like me,” he revealed.
Dangote said he was willing to reduce his own stake in the refinery to accommodate more shareholders, adding that he would not want small investors to have their money returned because of oversubscription.
“I don’t mind to be diluted as much as possible because I want people to actually be part of this good journey,” he said. He said the company was targeting about 10 million shareholders, most of them retail investors, and envisaged holding its annual general meeting in a stadium rather than a hotel.
On the refinery’s valuation, Dangote put the figure at about $46.3 billion, while projecting that the company’s future earnings would justify the valuation. He said the financial figures being used for the offer were based on normal operating conditions rather than the abnormal circumstances created by the war in the Middle East and higher crude prices.
He also disclosed that the refinery’s January and February results did not fully reflect operations because the facility was undergoing repairs.
“If you look at our numbers, that’s what it is. And these numbers too, mind you, in January and February, we did not really operate because we were doing repairs so that when we start the refinery, the refinery will now start very well,” he said.
Dangote said investors would be able to assess the company’s performance through its subsequent financial results, adding that the refinery’s operations were expected to expand significantly.
On the increase in petrol prices, Dangote said the refinery could not sell products below prevailing market prices when the cost of crude oil and transportation was rising. He said the company had bought crude at $124 per barrel in May and was also facing higher shipping costs due to the Middle East conflict.
He disclosed that the refinery had invested heavily in transportation infrastructure to reduce the cost of delivering petrol across Nigeria, including the acquisition of 4,000 new tankers. “We spent N1 trillion to invest in 4,000 brand-new 50-liter tankers. Brand-new,” he said.
Dangote said the company was delivering products to parts of the country without charging additional transportation costs, adding that the arrangement was intended to cushion the effect of higher petrol prices on consumers. He said the refinery would continue to supply the domestic market despite global disruptions.
“There will not be any shortage from our own part. There won’t be any queues. We’ll make sure that we keep satisfying the market despite all odds,” he said.
He also said the company would reduce prices when crude and international product prices fell, arguing that it had already done so in the past without waiting for government directives.
In the same vein, Dangote said the refinery’s public offer would provide investors with an opportunity to earn returns from a dollar-based business, adding that shareholders could choose to receive dividends in naira or dollars. He said this would help investors protect their wealth against currency depreciation.
“Because this is a dollarised business. It’s a business that is in dollars. That’s why we are saying that, yes, you can choose. Either you take a local currency as your dividend, or you choose dollars. And we pay both,” he said.
He also predicted that the share price could rise significantly over time, although he acknowledged that the future price would depend on market conditions.
He said an investment of N100,000 could potentially grow into a million naira within one or two years, urging investors to view the shares as a long-term investment rather than a quick profit opportunity. “This is a future for anybody’s family. You’re actually investing for the future of your family,” he said.
Reflecting on his business journey, Dangote said the decision to build the refinery and expand into fertiliser manufacturing was the biggest risk he had taken.
He disclosed that he had pledged all his assets as collateral for a $3.7 billion loan and also provided a personal guarantee to the banks.
“The risk that I took to build this refinery and our fertiliser business, the risk that we took as a group to transform when we suffered a lot in the exchange rate losses to now dollarise our businesses. Nobody ever gave us a chance that this refinery would ever work. But we took that risk. I believe so much in it,” he stated.
He said the group had never defaulted on a loan in its 47-year history. However, he described the collapse of his textile business as his biggest business mistake, attributing the failure to Chinese and Indian imports that overwhelmed local manufacturers.
He said the company was forced to close the business and lay off 6,920 workers. “We did textiles and the textiles ended up going under because government policy did not protect our businesses. We were swamped by Chinese dumping and Indian dumping,” he said.
Dangote said the experience had taught him the importance of ensuring that businesses could survive even when government protection was withdrawn. He added that inconsistent government policies and inadequate electricity remained the two biggest obstacles to industrialisation.
Speaking on his succession plan, Dangote said he believed ‘one or two’ of his three daughters could eventually lead the group, stressing that he was not forcing them into the business but that they had shown interest.
He said his ambition was to leave behind professionally managed companies with strong corporate governance and a structure that would prevent family members from destroying the businesses. “I want these companies to be run professionally. I want to have the highest level of governance,” he said.
He added that he wanted the group to operate like major global companies, where leadership could change without destroying the businesses.
On philanthropy, Dangote reiterated that one-third of his growing wealth would belong to the Dangote Foundation, which would distribute the funds to people.
He said his ultimate legacy was the industrialisation of Africa and expressed confidence that other African entrepreneurs would join him in building the continent’s industrial capacity.
Responding to questions on his personal life Dangote said he does not consider having a male child a priority, declaring that any of his three daughters could successfully succeed him and carry on the family’s business legacy.
Dangote said he was not concerned about producing a son, arguing that having a male child did not necessarily guarantee the preservation or growth of a family’s name and wealth.
“That one, I think, is not my priority. Let me say bluntly, it’s not really my priority, because today as you know, God controls everything. For me, sometimes you can pray for God to give you a son, but that son might be the one that will take down the name of the family. So, sometimes when God doesn’t give you something, don’t push,” he advised.
The billionaire, who has three daughters, said he had no doubt that they were capable of doing better than a potential male heir. “I don’t think the son would have done better than these three daughters that I have,” he said.
Dangote said his objective was to make it difficult for any family member to destroy the businesses he had built even after his demise.