EDGY OPTIMIST By Obinna Chima
Osun election may have come and gone and a winner declared, but the pockets of disturbing violence and intimidation that preceded and, in some places, accompanied the August 15 governorship poll should not be consigned to the dustbin of history.
If anything, the experience should serve as an urgent warning to Nigeria as the country moves towards the 2027 general election.
The issue today should not be whether the election was eventually conducted or whether the winner was declared. The more important question ought to be what has happened to those who used violence, intimidation, thuggery and other forms of coercion to influence the process. Have they been arrested? Is there an ongoing investigation? What about those who sponsored them? Have they been identified? And, perhaps most importantly, will anyone be held accountable?
These questions matter because electoral violence in Nigeria has survived largely because of impunity.
Electoral violence ranging from intimidation, physical assaults to destruction of property and loss of life, before, during and in some instances, after the exercise, has become a recurring and deeply concerning feature of Nigeria’s political landscape, especially at the grassroots level.
This pattern undermines democratic governance, erodes public trust in electoral institutions and destabilises the political system. In broad terms, election-related violence leads to deprivation of citizens’ rights to vote and compete, psychological, physical or even sexual violence that persons, particularly women suffer, with consequences for the victims and communities. It may also lead to the destruction of infrastructure with numerous negative economic and developmental consequences.
Already, the Imole Campaign Council of the Accord Party in Osun State said it has commenced a post-election review of electoral violence during the election, directing its structures across the 30 local government areas to document victims, including those who lost their lives or sustained injuries.
The election followed weeks of political tension and reported violence in parts of the state, including the killing of an Accord Party supporter, Ajayi Aderogba, popularly known as Rogba, in Esa-Oke in June. The All Progressives Congress (APC) also alleged that its members were killed.
The Imole Campaign Council had previously named Kolade Eluyera, Ezekiel Olapade, Ajayi Rogba and Timilehin Oni among those allegedly killed. It also listed several others it said were killed or injured.
The council had also alleged that more than 100 of Adeleke’s campaign coordinators and supporters were arrested and detained during the campaign.
Spokesperson of the Council, Pelumi Olajengbesi, said the review would cover every person affected by violence before, during and immediately after the election. It said its headcount would include people who sustained injuries, families who lost loved ones and persons whose properties were damaged or destroyed.
“Every victim must be documented. Importantly, this exercise is not party-focused. Every victim must be documented irrespective of political affiliation, party membership or voting preference.
“Violence against any citizen diminishes us all, and no family should be forgotten simply because of their political persuasion,” he added.
According to a pre-election Security Risk Assessment (ESRA) by the Kimpact Development Initiative, no fewer than 73 election-related violent incidents that resulted in 29 deaths were recorded. On the election day, the organisation revealed that 17 election-related violent incidents were recorded across 10 Local Government Areas of Osun State. The violence was said to have disrupted voting at Iroyin Ayo Open Space, Ward Elejigbo D/Ejemu, Ejigbo Local Government Area, leading to the cancellation of the election there. According to the organisation, gunshots, physical assaults and intimidation each accounted for five of the verified incidents, representing 29.4 per cent each, while harassment accounted for two incidents, representing 11.8 per cent.
These incidents may not have engulfed the entire state, but democracy does not measure its health only by whether violence becomes widespread. Even pockets of organised violence are enough to undermine citizens’ confidence in the ballot.
Nigeria witnessed precisely this problem during the 2023 general election. Violence, intimidation and fear contributed to a climate in which some citizens were reluctant to participate. The right to vote is meaningless if citizens are too afraid to approach the polling unit.
This is why the issue of electoral violence must now be treated as a national security and democratic emergency ahead of 2027.
Nigeria has witnessed countless elections in which people were attacked, properties destroyed, ballot boxes snatched and voters intimidated. Yet the public is rarely told what happened to the perpetrators. Sometimes suspects are arrested. Occasionally, the police announce investigations. But the process often seems to end there. This creates a dangerous incentive.
Ahead of the 2027 elections, the Nigeria Police Force, the Department of State Services, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps and other relevant institutions should develop a joint electoral-violence intelligence framework ahead of 2027.
Security personnel deployed for elections must understand that their loyalty is to the constitution and the Nigerian people and not to political parties or politicians. Their responsibility is to protect voters, election officials, candidates, journalists, observers and election materials.
They must intervene when criminality occurs without becoming participants in political disputes. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) also has a responsibility here. It can help reduce the opportunities for violence by improving the credibility, transparency and efficiency of the electoral process. The commission must therefore continue improving the reliability of its BVAS, result transmission, voter accreditation and result management.
Additionally, political parties must stop treating thugs as electoral assets. As long as political parties recruit, finance or tolerate thuggery, electoral violence will remain part of Nigeria’s political ecosystem.
Signing of peace accords ahead of election by party leaders should be taken serious and candidates who incite violence should face disciplinary action in addition to criminal investigation where appropriate.
Yesterday’s warning by the Inspector-General of Police, Olatunji Disu, to political actors that the Nigeria Police Force will not tolerate the recruitment or mobilisation of young Nigerians for political violence, insisting that the Force will not protect acts of violence, should be taken seriously by all political parties and their supporters as a clear warning that the 2027 elections must not be turned into a battleground for thugs and desperate political interests.
Disu further warned that the Force would not tolerate the possession or use of weapons for electoral purposes, attacks on political opponents, intimidation of voters, destruction of public or private property, or any other criminal conduct disguised as political participation.
The 2027 election must therefore be approached as more than another political contest. It must be treated as a referendum on whether Nigeria can conduct competitive elections without turning citizens into victims.
A successful election is one in which the old, the young, women, persons with disabilities, workers, traders, students and first-time voters can walk into polling units without fear, cast their ballots freely and return home safely and that is what we must all strive to achieve across the country.