A finance and project-management professional, Olawunmi Odufuye, has called for improved forecasting of fertiliser costs and supply conditions to help strengthen food security in the United States.
Odufuye made the call in an article on fertiliser economics, where she said forward-looking analysis could help manufacturers, farmers, investors and policymakers prepare for changes in production costs and supply conditions.
She noted that fertiliser costs and availability could influence planting decisions, production budgets, farm margins and the wider economics of food production.
According to her, fertiliser markets are affected by several interconnected factors, including energy prices, availability of raw materials, production capacity, transportation, international trade, agricultural demand, financing conditions and geopolitical developments.
“Market-price information is essential, but knowing today’s price is different from understanding the forces that may shape costs six months, one year, or several years from now,” she said.
Odufuye said forecasting should go beyond tracking current fertiliser prices to include scenario analysis capable of assessing the possible effects of changes in energy prices, shipping disruptions, supplier availability and other factors.
“The objective is not to predict the future perfectly. No model can do that. The objective is to make uncertainty more measurable and therefore more manageable,” she said.
She said such analysis could help fertiliser manufacturers make decisions on procurement, production planning, supplier diversification, inventory management, capital investment and capacity expansion.
According to her, manufacturers should assess how different natural gas price scenarios could affect production costs, margins and competitiveness, while also considering raw materials and logistics.
“A supplier that appears cheapest under normal conditions may become more expensive after transportation, financing, currency exposure, delivery reliability, and disruption risk are considered,” she said.
Odufuye also highlighted the potential impact of fertiliser costs on farmers, particularly those involved in major crops such as corn and wheat.
She said better forecasting would not eliminate volatility in fertilizer markets but could provide manufacturers, agricultural organisations, investors and other stakeholders with more time to assess changing conditions and prepare alternatives.
The article also pointed to efforts by the United States government to increase domestic fertiliser production.
Odufuye cited the United States Department of Agriculture’s announcement of at least $500m for the Fertiliser Investment & Expansion for Long-term Domestic Supply programme, known as the FIELDS Programme.
She said expanding domestic fertiliser production would require consideration of factors including energy and feedstock availability, construction costs, labour, transportation, financing, taxes, regulation, market access and expected demand.
“Fertiliser-specific cost modelling can help answer a more actionable question than whether America needs more fertiliser production: under what conditions can additional domestic production remain competitive and financially sustainable?” she said.
Drawing on her experience in fertiliser manufacturing finance, trade finance, cost management, supply-chain operations and strategic project support, Odufuye said operational and financial decisions in the sector were closely connected.
“Production depends on raw materials. Raw materials depend on suppliers and logistics. International procurement may depend on trade finance and foreign exchange. Expansion requires capital, and capital decisions depend on projected costs, demand, margins, and risk,” she said.
Odufuye called for greater integration of financial analysis, manufacturing economics, supply-chain intelligence and predictive forecasting in fertiliser decision-making.
According to her, such an approach could help stakeholders identify vulnerabilities earlier, compare alternatives and make investment and sourcing decisions with a clearer understanding of potential risks.
“For American agriculture, fertiliser resilience is not only about responding to the next price spike. It is also about developing the analytical capability and domestic production resilience needed to prepare before disruptions occur,” she said.