The federal government has welcomed Moody’s Ratings’ decision to revise Nigeria’s outlook from stable to positive while retaining the country’s long-term foreign- and local-currency ratings at B3.
The decision, announced by Moody’s on Friday, means the agency does not consider Nigeria’s current credit rating to have deteriorated and sees conditions that could support an upgrade if the country’s economic reforms continue to deliver results.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said in a statement yesterday that the decision reflected the impact of economic reforms implemented by the federal government over the past three years.
A positive outlook generally signals that a rating upgrade could be considered within the medium term if the factors underpinning the improved assessment are sustained.
For Nigeria, an improved sovereign credit rating could eventually reduce the cost of accessing international financing and strengthen investor confidence, although the immediate impact of an outlook revision is different from that of an actual rating upgrade.
Moody’s attributed the improved outlook to Nigeria’s stronger external position, citing large current account surpluses, rising foreign exchange reserves, improvements in the foreign exchange market and a more effective monetary policy framework.
The agency projected that Nigeria’s current account surplus could reach about 6.1 per cent of GDP in 2026. It also noted the significant increase in the country’s external reserves.
Figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) put Nigeria’s external reserves at $53.30 billion as of August 26, 2026.
Moody’s also noted stronger-than-expected economic growth, with real GDP growth reaching 4 per cent in 2025, above its earlier projection of about 3 per cent.
The agency expects economic growth to remain around that level through 2027, supported by expansion in non-oil activities and increased oil production.
Inflation has also declined, falling to 15.4 per cent in July 2026 from 25.3 per cent a year earlier, according to the figures cited in the assessment.
The Moody’s decision follows other recent developments in Nigeria’s financial markets.
On August 27, 2026, FTSE Russell moved Nigeria from “Unclassified” to “Frontier Market” status. In May, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating from B- to B, while Fitch Ratings maintained the country’s B rating with a stable outlook.
The latest assessments point to improved perceptions of Nigeria’s macroeconomic conditions, although the country’s ability to sustain the gains will depend on continued fiscal and monetary reforms, economic growth and improvements in its external position.
Speaking further on the development, Oyedele said, “Moody’s positive outlook is an important external validation of the difficult but necessary reforms this administration has implemented, from removing a costly and inequitable fuel subsidy to unifying the exchange rate, and the landmark tax reforms. These decisions are restoring the fundamentals of macroeconomic stability: stronger reserves, a resilient external position, moderating inflation, and more credible policy transmission.”
He added that the government’s bigger goal is to eventually push Nigeria into what is called “investment grade” status, a level that would make it easier and cheaper for the country to borrow money. “Our medium-term ambition is to place Nigeria firmly on the path to investment grade,” he said.
According to the minister, “That will require us to sustain the external gains Moody’s has recognised, while making faster progress on domestic revenue mobilisation, spending efficiency, and debt affordability. We are committed to doing the work required to get there, not for the rating itself, but because the underlying reforms are what will lower Nigeria’s cost of capital, crowd in private investment, and deliver shared prosperity for Nigerians.”