Dear Editor,
As The Gambia moves towards the 2026 presidential election, public opinion surveys are becoming an increasingly important part of our political conversation.
Recently, the Gambia Participates perception survey generated considerable public discussion about the relative standing and electability of presidential candidates.
Today, I want to look at that survey from one particular angle, not politics, not personalities, and not which candidate appears to be ahead.
I want to talk about methodology.
And let me make one thing clear from the outset, this is not an accusation of wrongdoing against Gambia Participates. It is a call for greater transparency and better public understanding of what an election perception survey can, and cannot tell us.
The first distinction we need to make is between a perception survey and an election prediction.
A perception survey tells us what people think or feel at a particular point in time. It does not necessarily tell us what will happen on election day. That distinction is extremely important.
The public should therefore be cautious whenever percentages from a perception survey are interpreted as if they were votes already counted.
The second issue is sampling.
For any survey claiming to represent the national population, we need to know how respondents in the survey were selected.
Was there a clearly defined sampling frame?
How were communities, households and individual respondents selected? Was the selection random?
Were different regions and demographic groups properly represented in the sample populations?
And, importantly, were statistical weights applied to correct any imbalance in the sample?
These questions are not criticisms of the organisation conducting the survey. They are basic questions that allow the public to assess the reliability of the findings of the survey. The third issue is the questionnaire itself. What exactly were respondents asked? How were the questions worded? In what order were they presented?
Were the questions pre-tested to ensure that they were neutral and clearly understood?
These details matter because the wording and sequencing of questions can influence how people respond.
Then there is the question of statistical confidence.
When a survey publishes percentages, the public naturally wants to know how precise those numbers are.
What is the margin of error?
What confidence level is being used?
How large was the sample?
Were undecided respondents treated separately?
And were the figures adjusted to reflect the actual demographic and geographic composition of the electorate?
Without this information, an independent reader cannot properly assess how much statistical confidence should be placed in the percentages being reported.
There is another important issue: The fieldwork.
When was the survey conducted? How long did the interviews take? How were enumerators trained and supervised? What was the response rate?
Were there significant numbers of people who refused to participate?
These factors can affect survey results, particularly during a politically sensitive election period.
So where does this leave us?
I believe the Gambia Participates survey may provide useful information about voter perceptions at a particular moment.
But unless the full methodological information is made available, its findings should be understood as indicative perceptions, not a forecast of the election result.
And this principle should apply to every opinion survey conducted in The Gambia, regardless of who conducts it or which political party appears to benefit from the findings.
The Independent Electoral Commission, civil society organisations and the media all have a role to play here.
The media should report survey findings together with their methodological limitations.
Civil society organisations should promote public literacy about polling.
And survey organisations themselves should provide sufficient methodological information to enable independent assessment.
Ultimately, this is not about attacking Gambia Participates.
It is about something much bigger.
Democracy depends not only on the integrity of the vote, but also on the integrity of the information environment in which citizens make political choices.
As we approach the 2026 presidential election, Gambians deserve political information that is transparent, understandable and methodologically credible.
Opinion polls can contribute positively to our democracy.
But they must be understood for what they are, and not presented as something they are not.
Thank you for reading.
Alhaji Kemo Conteh
Founder and senior partner governance and development services