Illusions of $1trillion economy soon

By Dele Sobowale

If it takes a whole minute to produce a fool in America, then Nigeria must be bringing them in at the rate of one a second. Nigerian politicians operate on the Barnum principle. Depending on who is dishing out the false dream, most Nigerians will believe anything.

Trust politicians and their creative advisers. Every time governments fail to deliver on their most important promises to the nation, they invent a magical future to divert attention from the poor results. Invariably, only the most discerning people can recognize the switch from reality to illusion. The vast majority of my Fellow citizens swallow the deception hook, line and sinker.

Remembering Vision 2020:20

“Those who do not remember the past are condemned to reap it” – George Santayana, 1863-1952.

Nigerians are so forgetful that they seldom remember the past. VISION 2020 was launched in 1992 by the Babangida Administration, with the objective of transforming Nigeria into one of the top 20 economies by the year 2020. Facilitators, speakers from Nigeria and abroad were invited; the cream of society from public and private sectors, academia, Labour were there. Group thinking  took over. Nobody, except one, queried the assumption. I was the lone voice disputing the submissions. By then I had written for five years on this page. Shortly after the session in Abuja ended, I published an article outlining why VISION 2020 was a wild dream.

I didn’t stop there. I was invited as a Guest Speaker by Government College, Ughelli, Old Boys Association, Warri Branch to address the issue of VISION 2020. Anyone at that gathering would recollect my remark that “if Nigeria attains top 20 economy status in 2020, I will publicly eat several copies of VANGUARD papers. I was the lone voice of dissent in a nation of false economic prophets. On December 31, 2020, Nigeria ranked 32 in the world.

Right now, the country, which economic witch doctors said would rank among the top 20, is sitting poorly in the 42 position. A new set of sycophants of the Federal Government has started another self-deceptive campaign. Nigeria’s economy is now projected to reach $1 trillion in less than ten years.

Tinubu’s administration has become a captive of clones of those who persuaded IBB, Abacha, Yar’Adua and even Jonathan that 2020 was possible. President Tinubu would be well-advised to ignore them. In the year 2020, Nigeria, under Buhari experienced its worst economic recession, minus 6.4% GDP decline – which has since entrenched the nation as the Poverty Capital of the world.

Why $1 trillion is a long way off

“Goals are dreams with deadlines” – Albert Einstein, 1879-1955

In economic matters, four important facts to bear in mind about dreams are the following: they must be realistic, the dreamers must wake up, there must be measurable incremental improvement and every step taken, after rising from slumber, must move the dreamers towards the goal. Without these elements, dreams end up as illusions. Those were the missing ingredients when Nigeria embarked on VISION 2020.

Years ago, a US long jumper set out to beat the existing world record. So, he went out and measured it; then he created his own training ground with a distance one foot longer. He eventually made it; beating the old record by three and half inches. It was not by chance; it took total focus on every aspect of the event.

  At the risk of repeating myself, the place to start interrogating our ambition to become a trillion dollar economy is to find out the countries which are already there. One, two, three trillion economies don’t just emerge from nowhere. Combinations of decisions made and measures taken by governments over decades bring about the results. At the end of 2025, three countries were in the trillion dollar class – Switzerland, Poland and Taiwan. None of them reached that exalted position byNigeria meanwhile reportedly had $290.5 billion Gross Domestic Productivity, GDP.

Furthermore, Nigeria’s GDP growth was 2.7 per cent in 2023,   3.4 per cent in 2024, 3.9 per cent in 2025 and is now expected to reach 4.2% in 2026. At 4.2 per cent, which has been our best effort since 2015, it would require      years to reach one trillion – if the momentum is maintained. Candidate Tinubu, in the RENEWWED HOPE document promised to grow the economy at 10 per cent annually. President Tinubu is failing woefully. Finding out why we are falling behind is the beginning of wisdom. Here are a few causes of failure to ponder.   Those intending to become members of a club must know the requirements for membership. Nigeria is definitely not ready to join the club; just as it was not ready to become top 20 in 2020 – despite the national self-deception by false prophets.

Annual budget calamities

“Insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result.”

Last week, the National Assembly, NASS, now a full-fledged parastatal of the FG announced that closure of aspects of the 2025 have been postponed to September 2026. The principle of checks and balances characterizing $trillion economies no longer exists in Nigeria. The Executive branch acts with impunity. The last three budgets were disastrous; the current one is set to join the parade of failed annual budgets resulting in higher debt burden.

Capital expenditure

“FG releases barely5% of N54.93tn road budget” – Report, June 17, 2026.

All the $trillion economies also have one thing in common. Capital expenditure constitutes more than half of the annual budget. Nigeria has flipped the script for nearly twenty six years. Recurrent expenditure takes the lion’s share every year. And, while almost 100 per cent of funds for recurrent expenditure is released, even if it requires borrowing to fund consumption, seldom is the entire capital appropriation released. The situation got worse under Tinubu.

  No nation grows its GDP by ten per cent with only 5% of capital expenditure released.

Debt burden

“Nigeria spends five times more on debt than health and education” – Report, June 24, 2026

Health, Education and Infrastructure constitute the basic foundations of a $trillion economy – receiving more than forty per cent of annual expenditure. Today, and for the foreseeable future, debt repayment will consume over 60% of Nigerian government’s revenue – even if no fresh loans are taken. Unfortunately, the FG is already close to securing $5 billion loan from the UAE – which several financial experts regard as toxic. More unfortunate, the loan is not even meant to finance any development project; which might render the loan self-liquidating. It will again be allocated to consumption.

Continuity

“Nigeria’s infrastructure landscape features over 12,128 abandoned projects” – Report.

Abandoned projects are almost unknown in $trillion economies. Every government undertakes the completion of all projects inherited from predecessors; because they were embarked upon after due process and were integral parts of a long term development programme. Nigeria is littered with thousands of abandoned projects.

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