Nigeria’s Fragile Economy, Re-Capitalisation, and Nuclear Weapons: State, Versus Stomach, Insecurity

Bola A. Akinterinwa

For various reasons of psychology of human differences, people do their things at different times, under different conditions and purposes. As such, interests do conflict with one another. This is why international politics is a conflict system. This is also why conflict resolution remains a major issue in political governance. Africa, in general, and Nigeria, in particular, has become a terra cognita of crises and conflicts, fragile economies, and struggle to shift from linear economy to circular economy. Linear economy is about taking, using, and disposing of model (take-make-dispose model) while a circular economy is about eliminating waste and pollution by particularly keeping materials and products in use possibly for a long period in such a way as to regenerate natural systems rather than doing away with resources. Circular economy enables sustainability, job creation, cost savings as well as efficiency. It is particularly because of the need for sustainability that Government adopted the policy of bank recapitalization, which is also expected to nip in the bud the fragility of the economy and make the country safe from the politics of non-nuclearisation and economic round tripping.

On Tuesday, 9th June, 2026, Professor Femi Otubanjo, Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, gave a lecture at 11 am on “Nuclear Weapons: from Instrumentis Belli to Causas Bellorum under the NIIA’s Foreign Policy Lecture series. On the same day at 2 pm, Professor Clement Olawole Oluwasuji delivered the Adekunle Ajasin University’s 65th Inaugural Lecture, entitled “Nigeria’s Fragile Economy: Removing the Contours and Roadblocks to Sustainable Development.” On Wednesday 10th June, 2026 Professor Adeboye Akanni Akinwunmi similarly delivered the 7th Inaugural Lecture of the Achievers University, Owo. His lecture was titled ‘Re-capitalisation in the Nigerian Financial System: For Whose Benefit?’ Thus, while politicians are much preoccupied with 2027 elections, academics are much concerned with issues of political governance and economico-security questions. In this regard, where do we place state insecurity and stomach infrastructure or insecurity?

Fragile Economy, Re-Capitalisation and Nuclear Weapons 

Without whiff of doubt, the linkages between and among Nigeria’s fragile economy, re-capitalisation, and nuclear weapons are closely or strongly intertwined. On the one hand, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (PBAT) is simultaneously pursuing a fragile economic recovery, carefully managing the financial sector, and also cautiously executing a peaceful nuclear energy policy.

True, Nigeria’s economy is mono-cultural. Nigeria is basically an oil nation-state. Gas is increasingly being developed to complement the oil economy which accounts for more than 90% of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings. However, the economy is not only fragile but also at risk. The PBAT administration has taken a number of measures to address the problem of fragility and risk, such as removal of fuel subsidy and unification of exchange rate. but the measures taken have not stopped the economy from remaining vulnerable to high inflation, deepening poverty, high debt service, low revenue and excessive reliance on oil revenue. As of May 2026, Nigeria’s economy is still largely defined by fluctuations in global oil prices and production, insecurity and conflicts in the country, recidivist inflation, and declining purchasing power.

As noted by Dr. Samer Matta, the World Bank’s Senior Economist for Nigeria, at the 2026 Nigeria Economic Summit Group, macroeconomic stabilization alone is insufficient to improve the welfare of the household. Reportedly in his words, ‘growth is welcome, but if it does not reach the poorest, it will be meaningless.’ Additionally, Dr. Matta had it that ‘policy focus must go beyond aggregate growth figures. Reducing inflation, improving the quality of spending, and implementing social protection programmes are essential to ensure that economic gains reach households.’ And perhaps more importantly, Dr. Matta underscored the point that ‘monetary policy alone cannot close the gap between macro stability and living standards. We need coordinated fiscal, structural, and social measures to ensure inclusive growth.

In the eyes of Professor Oluwasuji in his Nigeria’s Fragile Economy (Akungba: AAU, 2026), the fragility of Nigeria’s economy is defined by two major factors: location of Nigeria’s economy in the core-periphery of the global economy and the monolithic nature of the economy. As regards the core-periphery of the global economy, Professor Oluwasuji has it that ‘there are two distinct worlds in that village –the industrialised world with 20% of global population but consuming 70% of its metals, 85% of its woods and 60% of its food and accounting for about 83% of its GDP, 81.2% of world trade, 94.6% of all commercial lending, about 81% of both its domestic and saving and investment and 94% of all research and development.’ However, in his further thinking, ‘the region which accounts for 10% of the world’s population and is potentially very rich in natural and human resources, contributes only one percent of world’s GNP, and accounts also for one percent of its trade’ (vide p. 13 et s.).

On the monolithic nature of the economy, Professor Oluwasuji has observed that whenever there are socio-economic agitations in Nigeria or when the global economy is fraught with recession or meltdown, Nigeria’s economy cannot but be nosedived and crippled simply because Nigeria’s economy ‘is dependent on oil production alone.’ 

In his own inaugural lecture, Professor Akinwunmi distinguished between and among a capital structure with 100% equity, 75% equity, 50% equity, and a capital structure with 25%  equity. Explained differently at the level of banking re-capitalisation, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) put in place a 24-month capitalization programme which was concluded on 31st March, 2026. The sum of N4.65 trillion was raised in new capital. 33 of the 37 banks met the new banking requirements. 72.55% of the sum was raised locally while the balance of 27.45% was sourced by international investors. Banks that could not meet the requirements had the option to merge with another bank or to downgrade their license from being international to national.

In this regard, the CBN required, with effect from April 1, 2026 new banking capitalisation. International commercial banks are to have N500 billion capital base, national commercial banks must have N200 billion while regional commercial banks and merchant banks are to have N50 billion each. National non-interest banks are to have N20 billion while regional non-interests banks must have N10 billion. The exercise was carried out as a risk-based capital regime to achieve high-quality capital (paid-in-shares), as well as to ensure the resilience of the banking sector to economic shocks, improve asset quality, and increase their lending capacity particularly to the SMEs and agriculture. 

However, as a result of Nigeria’s inclement financial environment, especially in terms of high inflation, banks often lend more to the Government rather than to the private sector. This hinders real sector growth. In early 2026, Nigeria’s total public debt was put at N159.28 trillion ($111 billion) with the banks’ lending as much as N15.66 trillion of it. The domestic debt was put at N84.85 trillion, representing about 53% of the total debt stock. And perhaps more disturbingly, Government has put in place the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS), as well as its state-level counterpart, the State Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (SEEDS) to help reduce poverty and create new jobs. The efforts have not been to good avail.

Currently, PBAT is not only addressing socio-political and military insecurity in the land but also giving priority attention to economic recovery and abject poverty reduction over nuclear weapon-driven defence. Nigeria has no interest in the development of nuclear weapons but in the development of nuclear energy capability for peaceful purposes. And true enough, it is Nigeria that is currently presiding over the Conference on Disarmament that is promoting negative security assurances of the non-nuclear states).  

As regards, nuclear weapons and national security, Professor Femi Otubanjo has posited that ‘while nuclear deterrence has helped prevent direct military confrontation among the major nuclear powers, disputes surrounding the acquisition, deployment, and prevention of nuclear capabilities have increasingly become sources of conventional wars, diplomatic crises, sanctions, and preventive military actions.’ Professor Otubanjo underscores the point that nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to humanity and that no one ‘would be spared the consequences of total nuclear war. In this regard, he differentiated between two types of nuclear bombs: fission weapons or atomic bombs which involves the splitting of heavy atomic nuclei such as uranium with atomic weight 235 (uranium-235) or plutonium with atomic weight 239 (plutonium-239).

The second type is the fusion weapons, also known as hydrogen bombs and thermonuclear weapons. Fusion weapons use ‘nuclear fusion where light nuclei combine to form heavier nuclei,’ and are therefore more powerful. What appears to be most thought-provoking in the analyses of Professor Otubanjo is the biblical dimension, referring to chapter 16:6 of the Book of Revelations which teaches about the gathering of forces opposed to God for a final confrontation at Armageddon. But Jesus returns and defeats the forces of evil and establishes his reign (Rev 19). Satan is bound for a thousand years and released briefly and then finally defeated (Rev 20). This biblical reference raises not only the question of the second coming of Jesus Christ, but also what the prescriptions of Jesus Christ will be for Nigeria’s fragile economy, re-capitalization and non-nuclearisation policies beyond the challenges of economic sustainability and identification of the beneficiaries of recapitalization.

State Insecurity versus Stomach Infrastructure

Security in its classical sense involved the protection of a state’s territorial integrity and sovereignty from external military threats, and particularly from threats to the government. Greater attention, at times, is given to state security to the detriment of the survival of the people. This situation prompted some Third World scholars to call for the re-definition of the Europeanised state-defined security to include human beings, hence the introduction of human security in the international relations lexicon. Human security underscores the safety, well-being, and dignity of individuals against the threats of poverty, diseases, environmental hazards, etc. 

In Nigeria, for example, people talk first about security of the stomach, meaning that, while state security requires ensuring security by military means, human security cannot but be by provision of good food and sustainable amenities. The polsci.institute has asked: ‘if a country’s borders are secure yet its citizens still die from hunger, disease, repression, or violence at home, can we honestly say the people are secure?’ Without doubt, this question underscores the importance of the fragility of Nigeria’s economy as a problematic and the justification of the need for regular re-capitalisation.

Political governance under PBAT is fraught with crisis of insurrection, boko haramism, and armed banditry which compel the quest for foreign assistance. The assistance of the United States has been noteworthy: the U.S. has reportedly, in collaboration with the Nigeria government, neutralized 200 ISIS militants in a joint counterterrorism strikes across northeast of Nigeria. The neutralization has not deterred new attacks. The situational reality of insecurity has strengthened the agitations for state police and compelled the House of Representatives to quickly approve the state police bill.  In fact, the Senate has similarly ordered the crackdown on Tik Tok bandits in order to reduce the high level of insecurity in the country: misinformation-driven security threats and attempted abduction of WAEC candidates in Kogi State during which a Vice Principal was killed. There was also the case of kidnapping and beheading of a Christian Mathematics Teacher, Michael Oyedokun, of the Community High School in Ahoro-Esinele, near Ogbomosho in the Orire Local Government Area of Oyo State, on May 15, 2026. It was an armed attack on three schools along the Ahoro-Esinele and Yawota axis. 

The teacher was killed in captivity when he had no ransom to pay and the video of the beheading has been generating nationwide protests.

And true enough, the anger in the land appeared to have prompted an online call by one Nigerian for a coup d’état against PBAT. The Nigerian has been arraigned before a court in Lagos. Simply calling for a coup is a non-solution to Nigeria’s problem of fragile economy and insecurity. Arresting the caller is also not a solution. The problem of institutional corruption in Nigeria is deep seated. Political chicanery is endemic and is also begging for action. The threatening agitation for state police is now pricking the conscience of the National Assembly, especially because of the sharp rise in the level of brutal kidnappings leading to inhuman beheading and the fear of possible kidnapping of NASS members. The fear of possibly being kidnapped is a major dynamic for the fast-tracking of the state police bill.

It is good news to learn that the DSS and the Army have been able to foil ESN attacks, recover rocket launcher, 11 AK-47 rifles in Enugu. It is also good newsthat the Edo State government has begun the recruitment of 5,400 security corps, and has employed 500 forest guards. Will all these measures remove the threats of possible dismantlement of Nigeria? Can they address the international politics of nuclear non-proliferation? To what extent does Alhaji Abubakar Atiku’s call for state of emergency on security impact on people after the killing of the Kogi school Vice Principal? 

The Permanent Five Members of the United Nations Security Council (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, and United States) have constituted themselves into an unofficial exclusive nuclear club without structures. They are referred to in international relations as the Nuclear Weapons States (NWS). They do not want any new member. They do not want any other state to acquire nuclear capability but they cautiously facilitate their allies to acquire nuclear capability. All countries that want to acquire nuclear power for whatever purpose are prevented from doing so. In this regard, they distrust several countries like North Korea and Iran. They talk about acceptance of acquisition of nuclear power for peaceful purposes, but the process of producing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and for weaponisation is not different.

Acquisition of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes requires a low-level uranium enrichment (3% to 5%) while it requires a high level of uranium enrichment (80% to 90%) for war purposes. The primary material needed for nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is low-enriched or highly monitored plutonium whereas a weapons-grade highly enriched uranium or specialized plutonium is required for war purposes. In terms of delivery systems, an enclosed stationary containment structures of naval reactor vessels is required for peaceful purposes while missiles, gravity bombs, or submarine launched warheads are required for war purposes. Thus, the main difference between nuclear energy for peace and war lies in the ‘speed of the chemical-physical reaction and the enrichment level of the nuclear fuel.’

Consequently, for Nigeria to have agreed to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes does not mean she cannot easily change to war purposes because the underlying technologies often deployed are very connected. They create ‘a dual-use dilemma in which a peaceful infrastructure can be easily redirected for weapon development. This is precisely the reason for the vehement opposition of the United States to the acquisition of nuclear capability by Iran and many others. Why should Nigeria not be allowed as an influential and regional power to acquire nuclear capability for war under the pretext that Nigerian authorities may become radicalized and therefore may not be trusted? Why a fragile economy and not a vibrant economy? To what extent has regular re-capitalisation been helpful to good governance? Has recapitalization really been achieving its targeted objectives?

Whatever is the case, the Vice Chancellor of the Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba, Professor Olugbenga E. Ige, in his citation and assessment of the scholarly contributions of Professor Olasuji noted that, ‘today, we add the name of Professor Clement Oluwasuji to that distinguished list of inaugural lecturers… More important, he said, ‘we are living through a season of profound economic reconfiguration in Nigeria – subsidy removal, exchange rate reforms, and rising costs of living. In such moments, what the nations needs is not slogans or sentiment, but rigorous, evidence-based thinking. That is what a university provides. That is what Professor Oluwasuji will offer today.’  And true enough, Professor Olasuji proved beyond every reasonable doubt that he went through various schools of thought and the schools, indeed, also went through him.

In the same vein, what the Acting Vice Chancellor of Achievers University, now generally recognized as the ‘University of the Future,’ Professor Aremu Oyesoji, said of the Achievers University 7th Inaugural Lecturer, Professor Adeboye Akanni Akinwunmi, is not different. He particularly noted that Professor Akinwunmi is ‘a distinguished scholar, seasoned banker, accomplished administrator, and an exemplary academic  whose life and journey reflects resilience, excellence, and unwavering commitment to national development through education and finance.’ More importantly, he said, ‘from a rural village classroom to the pinnacle of academia and professional banking, Professor Adeboye Akanni Akinwunmi embodies the ideals of scholarship, leadership, and national relevance.’ The deductive beauty from the evaluations of both Vice Chancellors is that both scholars work in Achievers University which has become a major hub, a terra cognita, for seasoned scholars to meet, lecture, and provide insights into the future beyond conjectural methodologies.

In essence, Professor Adeboye Akinwunmi has rightly argued that ‘re-capitalisation does not guarantee improved efficiency and ethical conduct because, without sound corporate governance, prudent risk management and effective supervision, increased capital may not translate into improved performance.’ For instance, ‘out of N5.731 trillion of total currency in circulation in Nigeria as of January 2026, N5.21 trillion (90.91%) compared to 93.3% recorded in December 2025, was outside the banking system. By implication, it is difficult for the Central Bank to control inflation and reduce the lending capacity of the Bank. A major consequence of this is higher inflationary pressure and economic inefficiency. In the same vein, Professor Clement Oluwasuji has argued that the challenge of strategic development has never been because of a shortage of policies or plans, ‘it has been the weakness of execution and the inconsistency of leadership.’ As such, what is the implication of inconsistency in Nigeria of today? Will there be a United States of Nigeria one day? Professor Femi Otubanjo has also reminded of the 1985 statement of Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev that ‘ nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.’ Will there not be a World War III that will be nuclear-driven? If there will be, why should Nigeria not have nuclear capability for both peace and war purposes? The sermon of nuclear non-proliferation is preached, yet nuclear capability is constantly re-technologised and improve. Nigeria, quo vadis? The economy must not be fragile, recapitalization must be specially sustained, and Nigeria must be a major nuclear power. This should be a national and electoral debate for the 2027 elections.