By Arret Jatta
President Adama Barrow has emerged as the leading candidate in a new opinion poll ahead of The Gambia’s December 2026 presidential election.
The survey, conducted by Gambia Participates, gives President Barrow a 51 per cent chance of winning the 5th December presidential election.
The survey also revealed that opposition leader Ousainu Darboe follows with 23 per cent, while Talib Bensouda recorded 12 per cent.
Essa Faal and Mamma Kandeh each recorded one per cent, while other candidates accounted for another one per cent. Eleven per cent of respondents were undecided.
The findings were disclosed on Friday at the Gambia Participates office in Kololi.
The poll also showed clear regional differences in perceived electability.
Barrow leads in seven Local Government Areas, recording his strongest showing in Basse at 67 per cent, 60 per cent in Banjul, and 59 per cent in Janjangbureh.
Mansakonko was the only LGA where Darboe led Barrow. Darboe recorded 46 per cent compared to Barrow’s 36 per cent.
The race was also closer in Kerewan, where 42 per cent selected Barrow compared to 36 per cent for Darboe.
The survey further compared public support for Barrow and Darboe contesting the election with respondents’ willingness to vote for them.
Support for Barrow seeking a third term increased from 35 per cent in August 2025 to 46 per cent in August 2026.
Darboe’s support also increased from 19 per cent to 31 per cent during the same period.
Gambia Participates said the figures shows that accepting a candidate’s participation does not necessarily mean voters would choose that candidate.
The survey interviewed 1,556 people across all 53 electoral constituencies between 27th July and 10th August, 2026.
The organisation said it targeted only people with valid voters’ cards.
Gambia Participates Executive Director Marr Nyang cautioned the media and social media analysts against presenting the findings as a prediction of the election result.
He said the poll should not be interpreted as saying the 5th December election will produce the same outcome.
Nyang urged analysts to clearly explain that the findings represent the views of those surveyed, rather than a definite forecast of the election.