In 2023, Bola Ahmed Tinubu sowed the seed of the political humiliation of Christianity in Nigeria. As a presidential candidate, Tinubu concluded that Christianity was of such low electoral value that no northern Christian could help him win the presidency. Thus, he picked a fellow Muslim as his running mate. It worked. However, the seed that Tinubu planted is now being watered by Islamic bigots who are citing the “success” of the 2023 Muslim-Muslim ticket as evidence of Islam’s numerical superiority over Christianity in Nigeria and, thus, asserting that Muslims should continue to dominate national leadership, a view recently advanced by Sheikh Sani Yahaya Jingir, an Islamic supremacist.
Unfortunately, the seed planted by Tinubu and being watered by Islamic zealots is growing, as the Tinubu presidency mollycoddles the Islamic jingoists while traducing Christian leaders whose only sin is speaking truth to power, as evidenced by the recent treatment of Catholic bishops who visited President Tinubu to alert him to the parlous state of the nation. Cardinal John Onaiyekan, head of the delegation, told the media that the Catholic bishops visited the president because “the nation is bleeding.” Responding, Daniel Bwala, special adviser to President Tinubu on policy communication, said Cardinal Onaiyekan “sounded more political than spiritual.” Another presidential aide, Temitope Ajayi, the president’s senior media assistant, accused Cardinal Onaiyekan of “abuse of clerical privilege.” But the presidency said not a word on Sheikh Jingir’s incendiary comments.
But why did the presidency close its eyes to Jingir but was quick to condemn the Catholic bishops? Well, because Jingir’s message to Muslims to “raise the flag of Islam” and vote for the Muslim-Muslim ticket again in 2027 was music to President Tinubu’s ears, as opposed to the Catholic bishops’ jarring warning that Nigeria is “bleeding” under him. As a heuristic, “confirmation bias” tells us people tend to embrace information that supports what they want to hear and dismiss information that contradicts it. So, it’s not surprising the presidency ignored Jingir’s pro-Tinubu inflammatory outburst but swiftly condemned the Catholic bishops’ criticism of the president. Yet, Jingir is a monumental danger to religious harmony in Nigeria and should be denounced for his provocative outbursts!
Think about it. Recently, on August 8, at a mass wedding organised by the Kano State government for 1,500 couples, Sheikh Jingir said the “outcome” of Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023 demonstrated the numerical superiority of Muslims in Nigeria and called for its repeat in 2027. “So, here I am calling on you, please everyone should get their voters’ cards ready,” he said. “Let us show the world that those unbelievers who claim they outnumber us in Nigeria are lying.” Describing Nigeria as “a Muslim-majority country,” Sheikh Jingir stressed: “I’m calling on people to come and let us do Muslim-Muslim again.” Now, if you think such combustible comments could only come from a less urbane man, you would be wrong. Nasir el-Rufai, the highly educated and seemingly sophisticated former governor of Kaduna State, said the same thing in 2023. In a viral video, el-Rufai attributed Tinubu’s victory in 2023 to the Muslim-Muslim ticket, saying Tinubu “knew he had no option” but to pick a fellow Muslim as his running mate; otherwise, “he would lose the election.” El-Rufai said Tinubu’s victory showed Christians lacked electoral value in presidential politics in Nigeria, and mocked the Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, which had “kept quiet” and “remained mute” since Tinubu’s victory. “There is no liar that can say he will do politics of Christianity and win the election,” he said, adding, “So, if we keep bringing Muslim-Muslim tickets, everything will go smoothly for us Muslims.”
At the heart of Jingir and el-Rufai’s comments is population. They both believe that Muslims are more numerous than Christians in Nigeria and that Muslims would always determine the winner in any presidential election. Of course, President Tinubu believes the narrative too. He picked Kashim Shettima as his running mate in 2023, and retains him for 2027, not because Shettima is a “genius,” as he claimed, but because he believed, and still believes, only a Muslim-Muslim ticket could win him the presidency and re-election. Indeed, earlier this year, Tinubu’s wife confirmed that her husband’s Muslim-Muslim ticket was a deliberate and calculated political decision. In February, the first lady told The Free Press in the US: “Let’s face it, the Muslims are more than us (Christians). If a southern Muslim wants to run for president, politics is a game of numbers. You have to pick another Muslim; you can’t pick a Christian.”
But there was nothing in the results of the 2023 presidential election that showed empirically that most Muslims supported Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket. Of the 24 million Nigerians who voted in the election, only 8.8 million, or 36.6 per cent, voted for Tinubu: an overwhelming 14.6 million, or 63.39 per cent of voters, rejected him. A controversial victory secured under a plurality electoral system, not a majoritarian one, cannot justify a conclusion that Nigerians supported a Muslim-Muslim ticket or that a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket would always prevail. Yet, el-Rufai bragged, “So, if we keep bringing Muslim-Muslim tickets, everything will go well for us Muslims.” And Sheikh Jingir boasted, “Let’s do Muslim-Muslim again.” He was confident the formula would always win, thanks to the Muslims’ “numerical strength.” Such a perverse narrative, if unchecked, could fuel religious tension in Nigeria.
In their book Nigeria: What Everyone Needs to Know, John Campbell and Mathew Page state that “the official consensus is that Christians and Muslims each make up about half of the population,” adding that “former military head of state Murtala Muhammed famously voiced this fifty-fifty formula as conventional wisdom.” The conventional wisdom necessitated maintaining a balance of power between Islam and Christianity on the basis that neither religion is dominant over the other. For that reason, the Muslim-Muslim ticket of MKO Abiola and Baba Gana Kingibe in the 1993 presidential election was deemed an aberration. In his memoir A Journey in Service, General Ibrahim Babangida wrote, “Abiola, a southern Muslim, defied conventional wisdom by picking another Muslim as his running mate for the June 12 presidential election.” Babangida’s comment confirms there was, indeed, such conventional wisdom.
Some would, indeed, argue that competence should trump religious balance in national leadership. But in that case, would a Christian-Christian presidential ticket be treated equally to a Muslim-Muslim ticket? Well, not by the Muslim North. Asked on Arise TV if the North would accept a Christian-Christian ticket, Farouk Aliyu, an APC chieftain, said, “Based on the North I know, the North will not be comfortable with a Christian-Christian ticket.” So, it’s not about competence or meritocracy, it’s about perceived religious supremacy. Thus, as President Tinubu’s wife made clear, her husband did not opt for a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023, or replicate it for 2027, because of competence but rather because, as she put it, “Let’s face it, the Muslims are more than us (Christians),” even though there has never been a nationwide religious census in Nigeria.
The American founding fathers realised that one could not create fair voting systems without measuring the population. Hence, Article I, Section 2 of the US Constitution states that Congress should carry out a census in “such manner as they shall by Law direct every ten years.” But Nigeria’s last nationwide population census took place in 2006. Furthermore, while the UK reviews its electoral constituencies every eight to 12 years, Nigeria rarely changes its electoral constituencies. Yet, based on frequently rigged elections, we are told that Islam is more populous than Christianity, and that the age-old practice of balancing the interests of both faiths should give way to the political subordination of Christianity to Islam.
Perversely, some excuse Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim presidency because his wife is a Christian. But “First Lady” is not a constitutional position; “Vice President” is. Thus, having a Muslim president and a Muslim vice president humiliates Christianity politically. Tinubu planted the seed; Islamic zealots are watering it. But denying Christianity parity of status in Nigeria’s political firmament is dangerous; it’s a ticking religious time bomb!
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