Somalia's Conflicts Are Fueling Hunger More Than Drought

This year, as the Gu planting season begins, reports from across Somalia indicate that insecurity is preventing farmers from cultivating their land, despite the arrival of seasonal rains. While drought has displaced hundreds of thousands of people from rural areas, ongoing violence is denying them the opportunity to return home, rebuild their livelihoods, and resume agricultural production. Thousands of internally displaced people (IDPs) living in camps in Mogadishu, Baidoa, and other towns originally fled because of severe drought and livestock losses. Yet their prospects of returning remain bleak due to persistent insecurity. Humanitarian agencies continue to warn that displacement is becoming increasingly protracted as conflict blocks durable solutions. In Lower Shabelle,recurring clashes between two clans have severely disrupted farming activities. The rival groups have reportedly destroyed irrigation canals that sustain agricultural land, damaging infrastructure that is essential for crop production. The fighting comes at a critical time when farmers would normally be planting crops to benefit from seasonal rainfall after enduring prolonged drought. Instead, agricultural recovery has been delayed, increasing the risk of food shortages later in the year. The Bay and Bakool regions face multiple layers of insecurity. Besides the long-running conflict between Al-Shabaab and government forces, armed groups aligned with former South West State President Abdiaziz Laftagareen have launched repeated attacks around Baidoa, creating further instability. The overlap of political violence and insurgency has made farming, trade, and humanitarian access increasingly difficult. Al-Shabaab has also intensified attacks against Somali government and allied forces. On 11 July, the group reportedly attacked Ethiopian troops stationed at Wajid Airport in Bakool while a military aircraft was unloading supplies. Earlier, on 9 July, militants launched a heavy overnight assault on a Somali army base in the Birbiraha area of Luuq district in Gedo region. Such attacks illustrate the continuing volatility across southern Somalia and their impact on civilian life and local economies. In northern Somalia, clan violence has also intensified. In Sanaag region, renewed fighting between two clans in the Burkumaris area marked the latest outbreak in a long-running dispute over land and resources. Despite previous mediation efforts, recurring clashes continue to undermine local stability and livelihoods. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continues to conduct attacks in Lower Shabelle targeting government forces, contributing to a climate of insecurity that discourages civilians from returning to their farms or investing in agricultural production. Taken together, these developments demonstrate that conflict is now reinforcing—and in many cases surpassing—the impact of drought. Although rainfall may provide favorable conditions for cultivation, insecurity prevents communities from taking advantage of improved weather. Instead of returning home, many displaced families remain in camps, while others are newly displaced by violence. The scale of Somalia's humanitarian crisis is reflected in recent warnings issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), and the World Food Programme (WFP). The agencies estimate that between April and June 2026, nearly 6 million people—about 31 percent of Somalia's population—will experience Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or higher). They also warn that Somalia is facing one of the world's most severe child malnutrition crises, with approximately 1.9 million children suffering from acute malnutrition. Of these, around 493,000 are expected to face severe acute malnutrition, a life-threatening condition that leaves children up to 12 times more Ultimately, Somalia's climate crisis cannot be viewed separately from its security crisis. Drought and erratic rainfall continue to threaten livelihoods, but conflict has become the principal factor preventing recovery. As long as civilians cannot safely return to their farms, rehabilitate irrigation systems, or access their land, improvements in rainfall alone will not translate into improved food production. Without sustained security and political stability, humanitarian assistance will remain focused on emergency relief rather than long-term recovery. The combination of armed conflict, repeated displacement, and climate shocks risks trapping millions of Somalis in chronic food insecurity, making conflict not merely a consequence of humanitarian crisis but one of its primary drivers.