Somalia’s political crisis, deteriorating security and a “Questionable” agreement

At the beginning of this July, two documents revealed that the United States intends to prevent the United Nations from supporting the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia as of the beginning of next year, in a move that officials said would most likely bring the mission’s operations to an end, according to Reuters.

The African Union mission, comprising around 12,000 personnel, supports the fragile government in Mogadishu and assists it in countering al-Shabaab militants affiliated with al-Qaeda, whose previous attacks brought them close to the capital and who continue to control vast areas of rural southern and central Somalia, according to the news agency.

The same source said that “under President Donald Trump, the U.S. administration has grown increasingly frustrated with the government in Mogadishu, which is beset by internal political conflicts and has failed to defeat the insurgents despite years of sustained international support.”

In a diplomatic memorandum dated July 1 and reviewed by Reuters, “Washington informed the African Union that it would no longer support the United Nations Support Office in Somalia, whose total budget stands at approximately $500 million, after the end of this year.”

Last year, the African Union mission in Somalia operated on a budget of $190 million, “but funding for the mission has become increasingly unstable, resulting in a significant financing shortfall. Last year, Washington blocked a plan to shift to a funding model under which the United Nations would cover three-quarters of the budget.”
A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department told Reuters: “The United States has provided nearly $2 billion in assessed contributions to the United Nations Support Office in Somalia and its predecessor mission…

Despite this investment, Somalia has been unable to independently sustain the gains made by the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia and its predecessor missions in weakening and containing al-Shabaab, or to assume responsibility for most security tasks.”

In its memorandum to the African Union, according to Reuters, “Washington sharply criticized the Somali government’s efforts to restore order in the Horn of Africa nation.”

It continued: “Internal rivalries and political disputes continue to impede the fight against al-Shabaab and the Islamic State, and the benefits of international support will remain limited until Somalia’s leaders unite to address the country’s security and governance challenges.”

A “Questionable” Agreement
Against the backdrop of the difficult circumstances facing the Horn of Africa nation, Somalia signed a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, the stated objective of which was to establish new units for integration into the Somali National Army.

However, the New Somalia newspaper reported that Saudi Arabia had brought in mercenaries from Romania, Ukraine, South Africa, and Colombia. The Somali government has yet to provide detailed information on how the trainers were selected or on the nature of the training being provided.
The newspaper stated that the training program in “Guriel” represents one of the first steps in implementing this cooperation, as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia seeks to expand its influence in Somalia and the Horn of Africa. However, observers described “the agreement as questionable,” as neither side has disclosed its details.

On June 29, a high-level Saudi military delegation visited two training camps in the town of Guriel, in the Galguduud region of Galmudug State in central Somalia, where 5,107 soldiers are undergoing training, including 2,000 recruited from the Northeastern Region.

The training program will continue for nine months, amid the ongoing security and political challenges facing the Somali government, including internal disputes over the political process and elections, making any expansion of military assistance programs the subject of close attention and scrutiny by political and security circles throughout the region.
Meanwhile, other reports have revealed that the agreement conceals objectives more serious than those publicly declared, as Saudi Arabia’s attention has shifted to the war that has continued in Sudan since mid-April 2023.

Support for Port Sudan

In this context, reports state that Saudi Arabia is using Ukrainian and Colombian mercenaries to train 5,000 Somalis in Somalia’s Galmudug region in preparation for transferring them to Port Sudan to fight alongside the Sudanese Armed Forces.

This could deepen the humanitarian crisis and expand violations against civilians, while the training and arming of these personnel could contribute to supporting terrorist organizations in Africa and the Bab el-Mandeb region.

The United Nations affirms that, after three years of war, nearly 34 million people—roughly two out of every three people in Sudan—are now in need of humanitarian assistance, making it the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.

It also stresses that the crisis in Sudan is worsening “with no end in sight,” noting that parts of the country have experienced two years of famine, a situation that is “utterly unacceptable in this day and age.” It emphasized that as long as the war continues, the humanitarian crisis in Sudan will continue.
Meanwhile, observers maintain that bringing mercenaries from Somalia to Port Sudan would reignite the war at a time when the international community is intensifying its efforts to achieve peace, while Saudi Arabia continues to support the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood organization in Sudan.

Expanded Presence

Meanwhile, the Sudanese newspaper Al-Mashhad Al-Sudani reports that, in recent months, the simultaneous movements of Egyptian and Saudi officials on issues related to Sudan, Libya, Somalia, and Ethiopia have raised questions about the nature of the next phase. It stated that Egypt and Saudi Arabia strengthened their support for the army in Port Sudan during the previous period.
Reports also indicate that military developments contributed to enabling the army to regain control of the capital, Khartoum, and a number of states that had previously been under the control of the “Forces of Foundation.”