The repercussions of the new documents on chemical weapons in Sudan are unlikely to stop at reopening the file on the use of a banned weapon, as what The Washington Post and The New York Times have revealed could widen the circle of individuals and entities exposed to pressure and sanctions if the published indicators turn into evidence adopted by American or international bodies.
The United States has already imposed sanctions on Sudan after announcing that it had concluded chemical weapons were used during the war, but a large portion of the evidence underlying the American assessment was not available to the public.
The documents now published go further than that, discussing the structure of an alleged program, hundreds of munitions, manufacturing, storage, and testing sites, officers linked to the project, and communications that one of the two newspapers says reach army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan himself.
The Washington Post indicates that the US Treasury Department had previously imposed sanctions on one of the officers whom sources provided to the newspaper link to the project, due to his role in military procurement and the import of explosives, although the sanctions announcement at the time was not based on an accusation related to chemical weapons.
This information theoretically opens several paths for Washington, including expanding individual sanctions to include officials or procurement networks if evidence emerges directly linking them to the program, or targeting entities that contributed to obtaining materials and equipment, in addition to tightening restrictions related to dealing with Sudanese military institutions.
However, there is no indication in the materials available so far of an American decision to launch a new round of sanctions, and so discussion of this remains within the realm of possibility reinforced by the nature of the new revelations, not within the realm of a settled political decision. The likelihood of pressure increases the more the other path demanded by Washington stalls: Sudan’s cooperation with the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and allowing an independent verification.
Khartoum maintains the findings of its internal investigation and denies possessing or using chemical weapons, while Washington views independent verification as the way to settle the accusations. Here, how the army leadership deals with international demands may become a factor no less important than the documents themselves.
And if the file remains closed to verification while evidence and correspondence continue to emerge, the leaks could shift from a political reputation problem into an accountability and sanctions file targeting individuals and institutions within the Sudanese army establishment.
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